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Models – why and how

Models – why and how. Per Homann Jespersen Assc . Prof. – transport planning and transport policy Roskilde University phj@ruc.dk. Why predictive models. To foresee the consequences of decisions we might take To find the ‘ best ’ solution To give legitimacy to decisions made

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Models – why and how

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  1. Models – why and how Per Homann Jespersen Assc. Prof. – transport planning and transport policy Roskilde University phj@ruc.dk

  2. Whypredictive models • To foresee the consequences of decisions wemighttake • To find the ‘best’ solution • To give legitimacy to decisions made • ‘The transport models arelousy, but wecannot do withoutthem’

  3. Alternatives to transport demandcentered models • Models shouldfocus on the most critical variables • In cities the most criticalparamter is street space • Predictive models for city oriented transport models shouldfocus on thislimitedresource

  4. Supplementary decision support • Scenario basedmethods • Combining visions and predictions • Incorporateexistingobjectives • Involvingcitizens • Involving policy makers • Takingaccount of alternative futures

  5. The bestway to predict the future is to create it

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