Introduction to the theories of HES Natural and Social Science Interface, Sept. 22, 2008

1. Introduction to the theories of HESNatural and Social Science Interface, Sept. 22, 2008 Roland W. Scholz Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED)

2. Environmental Decisions: A genuinely interdisciplinary field -- contributions from NSSI NSSI has two „wings“ • A transdisciplinary laboratory (theory and practice cooperation and mutual learning on equal footing on societal relevant problems that are shaped by environmental problems) • An interdisciplinary research lab investigating environmental decisions and human-environment systems in many relevant fields

4. 2. Environmental Decisions, a genuinely interdisciplinary field For understanding what our students can do see the following examples: Research Prof. Dr.Claudia Binder.
Social and Industrial Ecology. University of Zurich Prof. Dr. Harald A. Mieg, Metropolen- und Innovationsforschung, Humboldt Universität Berlin Prof. Dr. Arnim Wiek, School of Sustainability, University of Arizona, Phoenix Prof. Björn Reineking, Biogeographische Modellierung, Universität Bayreuth Practice • Dr. Patrick Hofstetter is currently climate policy campaigner with WWF Switzerland • Ivo Menzinger is Head Sustainability & Emerging Risk Management at Swiss Re • Dr. Bruno Oberle is Director of the Federal Office for the Environment (BAFU/FOEN) • Dr. Ruedi Schwarzenbach is head of the Swiss Railways' (SBB) Environmental Center

5. Environmental Decisions, a genuinely interdisciplinary field (research groups of NSSI) • Waste and Resources Management (Dr. D. Lang; Environmental Scientist) • Energy Efficency and Sustainable Energy Use (Dr. P. de Haan; Physicist) • Radioactive Waste Management (Dr. M. Stauffacher, Sociologist) • Evaluation of Energy Systems (Dr. Th. Flüeeler, Physicist) • Regional and Urban Transitions (Dr. D. Lang/NN) • Ecosystem Services go to Market (Dr. T. Köllner, Biologist) • Recycling Behavior and Sustainability Learning (Dr. R. Hansmann, Psychologist) • Sustainable Finance (N.N.; Dr. T. Köllner, Biologist) • Multi-Agent Modeling of Influenza spread (T. Smieszek, Environmental Scientist)

6. Where the lecture starts from • The the “HES framework” has been a key part of the construction of the ‘Anthroposphäre’ at D-Uwiss and of the Bachelor’s program

7. 2. How to get a decision theoretic framework for the study of Human-Environment-Interactions? Some basic ideas • There are “actors” (human systems) on different levels (e.g. individuals, companies, societies/nations); they have different “rationales” • The decision theoretic model/language [(i) decision makers = actors, (ii) decision alternative/stragies, (iii) uncertain outcomes, (iv) goals/preferences/utilities] is useful to describe the rationale • The complementarity of human systems x environmental systems (i.e. a material-biophysical-technological and a social-cultural-epistemic environment) makes sense • There are primary feedback loops (referring to the prevailing goals/spirations) and secondary feedback loops (referring to “long term” environmental changes) • Human systems/decision makers show different degrees of environmental awareness • The actions of decisions on different levels of human system (e.g. the macro and the micro-level) interfere • Research should start from/incorporate the analysis of the environment

9. Basic reference for the lecture: • Chapter 19 from a a book with the working title: Environmental literacy in science and society: From knowledge to decisions • This Chapter 19 and my input first two lectures deals with the propositions in some detail • The framework and illustrating examples are Chapter 20 • These chapters are under constructions

10. Parts of the Environmental Literacy Book Part I - Invention of the environment: Origins, transdisciplinarity, and theory of science perspectives Part II - Biology Part III - Environments in psychology Part IV - Sociology and the environment Part V - Environmental economics Part VI - Industrial ecology Part VII - Going beyond disciplines (subject of the ECSM lecture) Part VIII - The framework of human-environment systems Chapter 19: Postulates of conceptualizing human environment interactions Chapter 20: A blueprint of a HES-research framework (subject to this lecture) Part IX - Utilizing environmental literacy Subject to the Theory I HES lecture

11. Environmental Literacy: 6 Principles • P1: The complementarity of human and environmental systems • P2: A hierarchy of human systems • P3: Feedback loops and sustainability learning • P4: A decision theoretic conception of human systems • P5: Environmental awareness • P6: Start with a state of the art model of the environmental system ( P6’: There are interferences between the micro- and the macro level)

12. Illustrating P2 (hierarchy): The example of area planning • The societal/national view • 1 qm is sealed per second in Switzerland linear extrapolation: doubling settlement area in 93 years, 50% of the “Siedlungsland” will be settled in 103 years • Negative impacts of sprawl settlement on infrastructure costs, transportation/CO2 emissions, loss of high value agriculture land, devaluation of the landscape/countries attractiveness (“unwirtlicher Siedlungsbrei”) ... ( We are facing a “landscape dilemma of the commons”) • Impacts/goals might/should (from a national view) • Do not build isolated/new apartment houses on the Greens • Only allow new houses/residential areas if public traffic is guaranteed • ...

13. 2. The Swiss citizens desire for Green buildings

14. 2. The Banks marketing strategies for sustainable buildings

15. A Influenza spread: What we know about it and how we can utilize multi-agent modeling for a better understanding and planning precautionary measure B Investors are building lifestyles: A view from financial agents on sustainable urban development What I can offer as “learning examples” for taking a HES perspective

16. On topic A Smieszek, T. (in prep.). Introducing an exposure-dependent transmission model into simulations of disease spread. Epidemiology and Infection. Smieszek, T., N.N. (in prep.). How to generate realistic close-contact networks for the simulation of droplet transmitted diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. On topic B Kriese, U. & Scholz, R. W. (submitted) Lifestyle ideas of house builders and housing investors in and around the 20th century Kriese, U. & Scholz, R. W. (submitted) Sustainability positioning of residential property investors Journal of Property Investment & Finance R., Bügl, R. Leimgruber, C., Hüni, G., & Scholz, R.W. (submitted). Sustainable Real Estate Funds, and finance-psychological perspectives on adaption by real estate investors and funds suppliers Some references

17. Exercise 1 (send the solution till October 1, 10:00 a.m. to silvia.cavelti@env.ethz.ch) 1.1 Provide a precise general definition of the term environment (which you consider useful as a for the HES context). Not more than 150 words. Make reference to at least two scientific publications (not only Wikipedia, not only a simple dictionary; but Merriam Webster’s unabridged recommended). 1.2 Provide a scientific definition(s) for (i) the environment of your mother (not more than 200 words) (ii) the environment of “Swiss society”

18. A note on terminology: Model, theory, framework and paradigm • The presented HES framework has sometimes been called Process-Structure Model (PSM, see Scholz & Binder, 2004). This is due to the fact that it represents some key system elements and a timely structure of the decision and feedback/learning process. • Under (simplifying) assumption, it is possible to construct a mathematical model for the learning of a human system. • Today, the term PSM is widely used; often in the meaning of a framework. Scholz (1987, p. 142) applied it as an abbreviation for a “Framework for the Process and Structure of Human Information Processing” • Scholz, R. W. (1987). Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking. Dordrecht: Reidel. • Scholz, R. W. & Binder, C. R. (2004). Principles of Human-Environment Systems (HES) Research. In C. Pahl-Wostl, S. Schmidt, A. E. Rizzoli & A. J. Jakeman (Eds.), Complexity and Integrated Resources Management Transactions of the 2nd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (Vol. 2, pp. 791-796). Zentrum für Umweltkommunikation (ZUK), Osnabrück (D).

19. Model • Model Origin latin <modulus>, measure, model has many meanings: • General definitions/meanings of the term • structural design, a type of design of clothing or product (e.g. car), miniature representation, a pattern of something to be made, an example for imitation or emulation, a person or thing serving for herself as a model (e.g. Claudia Schiffer); applies to something taken or proposed as worthy of imitation <a decor that is a model of good taste>

20. Model • Scientific notions/interpretations of the term model • There are abstracted (epistemic) models [Leibnitz, Kant; e.g. a circle] and material (technical) [Locke] models (e.g. a bust [German Büste] made by an artist; an model of a ship, e.g. Panta Rei a ship of the Zurich Lake) • A description or analogy used to help visualize something (as an atom) that cannot be directly observed • A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a mathematical description of an entity or state of affairs; also: a computer simulation based on such a system <climate models> • An analog organism that is studied as a substitute for something else that is not easily investigable (animal model) • In the social sciences, a model serves for experimentally getting insight into the reals states of an empirical system • There are other definitions of models in geometry, physics, logic (see model theory), liguistics, ecology etc.

21. Theory • General definitions are: a theory means the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another, abstract thought, an ideal or hypothetical set of facts, principles, or circumstances -- often used in the phrase in theory (in theory, we have always advocated freedom for all) • Scientific notions/interpretation of theory Belief, policy, or procedure proposed or followed as the basis of action (her method is based on the theory that all children want to learn) • A plausible or scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena (the wavetheory of light) • A set of theorems presenting a concise systematic view of a subject (theory of equations) • The theory of sciences deals with many different notions

22. Framework • General definitions • The larger branches of a tree that determine its shape • A skeletal, openwork, or structural frame • Scientific notions/interpretation • Basic conceptional structure (as of ideas) <the framework of the United States Constitution>

23. Paradigm • A philosophical and theoreticalframework of a scientific school or discipline within which theories, laws, and generalizations and the experiments performed in support of them are formulated; broadly : a philosophical or theoretical framework of any kind paradigm. (2008). In Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary.Retrieved September 21, 2008, from http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paradig

24. References to the term model/theory • Gove, P. B. & the Merriam-Webster editorial staff. (1993). Webster's third new international dictionary of the english language unabridged. Springfield U.S.A.: Merriam-Webster INC. • König, G. (1998). Theorie. In J. Ritter & K. Gründer (Eds.), Historisches Wörterbuch der Philosophie [Historical encyclopedia of philosophy], Band 10 (pp. 1128-1146). Basel: Schwabe. • Mainzer, K. (1981). Modell. In J. Ritter & K. Gründer (Eds.), Historisches Wörterbuch der Philosophie [Historical encyclopedia of philosophy], Band 6 (pp. 46-50). Basel: Schwabe.