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Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market

Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market. Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105. Themes of the day.

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Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market

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  1. Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

  2. Themes of the day • The Texas and most regional economies are stronger than the U.S., but Texas is subject to the same global macroeconomic forces as other parts of the U.S. • Globalization is influencing job creation; type and number • Demographic shifts are changing the face of the Texas labor market – where we live, what we look like • Nobody lives in Texas: every region is a different economy • Recent Texas job growth has been largely fueled by: Population growth, the Oil & gas cluster and Professional Technical Services • Occupational demand is more bifurcated. Skill sets over job titles • The current alignment between labor market demand and education outputs is less than perfect • In the end, getting a job is all about balancing Will and Skill

  3. Harry Truman is purported to have said, Recession Growth All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand” …what I really need is a one-handed economist

  4. U.S Jobs Recovery from the Great Recession

  5. The Macroeconomy: Headwinds & Tailwinds Headwinds • Rising healthcare costs, federal fiscal uncertainties, low confidence in our federal politicians • Slow global demand, slow U.S. economy, Japanese & European recession, slower Chinese GDP growth • Structural employment changes slow worker uptake • Slow but consistent economic and job growth • The Wealth Effect is driving consumer confidence • Pent up demand: Delayed TX household formation • Pent up finances: A) Cheap money, B) Excess bank reserves, corporate cash, consumers hoard cash Tailwinds

  6. Awash in Liquidity: Money on the Sidelines M1Cash Corporate profits Excess Bank Reserves

  7. Emerging Patterns in Quits and Layoffs (Feb 2013)

  8. Practices affecting job growth and worker preparation 1. Money economy are labor market are decoupling Who’s making money vs. Who’s creating jobs? 2. Technological obsolescence & Labor substitution Technology replacing both workers or specific skills 3. Emergence of new & blended occupations New “hybrid” jobs that combine work activities from 2 or more traditional occupations into a single “new” job 4. Work Activity Off-loading -passing off lower value-added work to assistants/technicians. See Paralegals, Physicians Assistants, Physical Therapy Assistants 5. Occupational crowding Higher skilled workers taking lower skilled jobs, thus displacing lower skilled workers altogether

  9. Does the Global Economic Slowdown Matter? Percent of 2011 Revenue Outside U.S. YUM Brands70% Wal-Mart 26% IBM 64% Boeing 41% Intel84% General Electric 54% Bank of America 20% Ford 51% Dow Chemical 67% Microsoft46% Apple Inc. 61% JNJ 56% Caterpillar 64% Dell 48% ExxonMobil 45% McDonalds 66% Amazon 45% General Motors 46% Nike 50% Hewlett Packard 65%

  10. Texas Labor Market:1. Who we are?2. Where do we live?3. What’s the market like? 4. Where is the growth? 5. Where are we going?6. What is the role of education?

  11. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 79 counties lost population over the decade Source: Texas State Data Center

  12. Texas becomes more Hispanic

  13. Tough Competition: Generational Employment in Texas 2000 - 2010

  14. How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

  15. Texas Labor Market Review Newsletter

  16. Texas MSA April 2013 Urates (actual)

  17. Texas Industry Growth April 2012-13 YOY (SA)

  18. Job Growth 50 State Comparison

  19. Texas Industry Employment Change 2010-12

  20. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services in Texas 2010-2012

  21. Estimated Occupational Staffing Pattern for Professional & Technical Services

  22. Where the Texas Job Postings Are Now NOTE: 74% of all job postings in Big 4 metro areas Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from May 17, 2013

  23. Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from May 17, 2013 NOTE: Arrows indicate occupation with greater or less than 5% change in last year

  24. Source: Wanted Analytics for 90 day period from June 17, 2012

  25. Help Wanted Job Listings for Austin MSA (last 90 days)

  26. Achieve Texas Cluster Employment (sorted by wages)

  27. Texas Most Annual Average Job Openings 2010-20

  28. Projected Fastest Growing Occupations in Texas 2010-20

  29. What is IT? Is this IT?

  30. What is the IT labor market?Can it be defined as an industry? Can it be defined by occupation? Can it be defined by college major? Is IT a ubiquitous operation or a cross- domain function?Should it be defined by skill set?

  31. Source: McKinsey Global Institute

  32. Source: O*NET & Monster.com

  33. Returns to Education & Educational Requirements

  34. Labor Market Reality

  35. More education, better labor market outcomes

  36. Reality is Relative2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money SurveyPoll of Americans ages 13-18 U.S. teenagers were asked: What is your average expected starting salary? What will be your salary once established in a career? Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive

  37. Starting your career: Average answer: $73,000 a year Boys answered: $79,700 a year Girls answered: $66,200 a year Reality is Relative2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money SurveyPoll of Americans ages 13-18 Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/

  38. Established in your career: Average answer: $150,000 a year Boys answered: $162,300 a year Girls answered: $126,500 a year Reality is Relative2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money SurveyPoll of Americans ages 13-18 Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/

  39. Welcome to Reality Check 2011! http://www.texasrealitycheck.com

  40. Texas Reality Check for iPhone…. for free! Now at the Apple App Store

  41. www.TexasCARESOnline.com

  42. Math = Money The more math you take the more money you can make.

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