Introduction to CISM and Space Weather

1. Introduction to CISM and Space Weather Dr. Ramon E. Lopez Physics and Space Sciences Florida Tech CISM and Space Weather

2. The Sun has a magnetic field CISM and Space Weather

3. The Magnetosphere • When the solar wind encounters a magnetized body, it is slowed and deflected • The resulting cavity in the solar wind controlled by the body’s magnetic field is called a magnetosphere CISM and Space Weather

4. Simulations show how this happens • The Earth’s undisturbed field is basically a dipole • When the solar wind flows in from the left, the Earth’s field is deformed CISM and Space Weather

5. The Magnetosphere CISM and Space Weather

6. The Sun is can generate activity even at solar minimum.We saw this in late October of 2003 - the Halloween Storms CISM and Space Weather

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8. Storms accelerate some particles to MeV energies Spacecraft can be lost when there is a high, sustained flux of energetic electrons, such as during the May 1998 storm Killer Electrons CISM and Space Weather

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10. Power transmission systems are vulnerable to induction driven currents Power grid effects CISM and Space Weather

11. The March 1989 Magnetic Storm caused millions of dollars of damages as power systems failed Blackout! CISM and Space Weather

12. Some Effects of the Halloween storms • 2 damaged Japanese satellites (one lost) • Many other satellite anomalies • Small blackout in Sweden • Temporary loss of Mars Odyssey radiation instrument - possible lethal dose for astronauts on the way to (or on) Mars • Aurora in FL, GA, TX CISM and Space Weather

13. September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington was observing sunspots when “….two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out...” Magnetic perturbations and other effects of this great storm were recorded and published 2 years later Balfour Stewart wrote - “... it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.” The first space weather event - The great storm of August 1859 CISM and Space Weather

14. Aurora were reported at New Orleans, Galveston, Key West, and Havana Telegraph operations in Europe and North America were severely impacted In some cases, telegraphs worked better using GIC currents alone, without batteries Elias Loomis collected and published reports of the storm in the Amer. J. of Sci. Impact of the August 1859 storm CISM and Space Weather

15. The Lyon-Fedder-Mobary (LFM) code is a fully 3-D MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) simulation run with real solar wind input Magnetosphere modeled via ideal MHD equations in a large (5x distance to Moon) simulation grid shaped like a cylinder To study the results me must employ visualization techniques, especially movies of the time evolution of the magnetosphere MHD Magnetosphere Simulation CISM and Space Weather

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17. We are at the point where physics-based models can reproduce actual events In the next decade we will be able to model the entire system, from the surface of the Sun to the upper atmosphere of the Earth This is the goal of the Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling - CISM - a Science and Technology Center funded by the National Science Foundation Predictive models are a major goal of the National Space Weather Program Predicting Space Weather CISM and Space Weather

18. CISM Institutions Dartmouth College Boston University University of California University of Colorado NCAR/HAO Lockheed-Martin NCSA CCMC NRL NOAA/SEC Stanford University Alabama A&M University SAIC Florida Institute of Technology Rice University CISM and Space Weather

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20. Coronal and Solar wind models are already coupled CISM and Space Weather

21. This will drive computer models of the magnetosphere CISM and Space Weather

22. Solar Corona Linker and Mikic Solar Wind Odstrcil and Pizzo Magnetosphere Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry Ionosphere TIMED GCM Inner Magnetosphere SEP MI Coupling Active Regions Ring Current Geocorona and Exosphere Radiation Belts Plasmasphere CISM and Space Weather

23. Superstructure Models: Fields and Grids Layer Model Coupler Low Level Utilities Coupler External Libraries Model Model Computational Framework: Constraints and Approaches Functional Requirements: Efficient data transfer between codes, Data Translation (physics) and interpolation (grid) between codes, Controlled execution of asynchronously running codes. Science Requirements: Couple existing codes with truly minimal code modification, Data sharing between codes with different physical models and grid structures. Asynchronous Structure - Codes run independently, mediated by Couplers and controlled through data channels Hierarchical Structure - Codes become subroutines Global RCM ITM CISM and Space Weather

24. Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts Earth Wang-Sheeley Model modified by Arge Sun Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms Solar Wind Velocity CISM Energetic Electron Models, dB/dt Model, and Ap model CISM and Space Weather

25. National Space Weather Program Components CISM and Space Weather

26. DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations DoD SEC Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation Communication CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Model Flow Space Weather Research Community Living With a Star NASA Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF Core Space Science Research Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR Space Weather Model Development CISM and Space Weather

27. Studying the Solar-Terrestrial Chain SOHO SNOE RHESSI ACE CLUSTER Solar Source POLAR Solar Wind Drivers SAMPEX Seed Population Continuous views of sun in UV, x-rays, visible wavelengths (SOHO, NOAA/SXI, RHESSI, etc.) TIMED Precipitation And Loss Continuous data from ACE Atmospheric & Ionospheric Coupling Excellent data on plasma sheet sources of seed population (CLUSTER, GEOTAIL, POLAR, etc.) Excellent data from SAMPEX, NOAA/POES, POLAR/PIXIE Continuous coverage - SNOE and TIMED CISM and Space Weather

28. Discuss space weather effects and space policy Learn more about CISM code infrastructure and visualization tools (CISM-DX) Engage in interactive exercise with model products Discuss future capabilities Rest of the day CISM and Space Weather