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Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action

Commercial Aviation Safety Team 2006 Collier Trophy Nomination Dr. Michael Romanowski Aerospace Industries Association NAA Selection Committee Presentation February 6, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia. Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action.

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Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action

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  1. Commercial AviationSafety Team 2006 Collier Trophy NominationDr. Michael RomanowskiAerospace Industries AssociationNAA Selection Committee PresentationFebruary 6, 2007Crystal Gateway MarriottArlington, Virginia

  2. Situation in Mid-90’s Highlighted Need for Dramatic Action CAST 1998 FSF Briefing

  3. By Today’s Standards, Accidents in the Mid-90s Were Frequent CAST Has Saved Lives - It’s Changed Our Safety Expectations & the Way We Manage Aviation Safety AMR, Cali ValueJet, Everglades Delta, Pensacola TWA, New York AMR, NY Comair, Lexington R CAST

  4. Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane + Safe Operation + Safe Infrastructure = Safe Air Travel Air Safety * Government Manufacturers • Aviation law • Operations specification • Rules and regulations • Inspectors policy,procedures, and training • Airline policy andprocedures requirements • Safety, health, environmentallaw, and regulations • Navigation facilities/operations • Airport facilities • Departure enroute, arrival, approach policy, andprocedures • Air traffic control services • Safety related analysis • Safe airplane design • Safety enhancing technologydevelopment • Flight and maintenance operations, recommendations,documents, training, andsupport • Maintenance planning • Safety related analysis • Safety initiatives Operators • Operations policy andprocedures • Airplane/pilot publications • Approved maintenanceprogram • Maintenance, policy, andprocedures • Maintenance publications • Safety program • Training * Including Air Traffic Service providers 5.1-9

  5. CAST Came Together in 1997 to Form an Unprecedented Industry-Government Partnership • Voluntary commitments • Consensus decision-making • Data driven risk management • Implementation-focused • Goals: • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Reach out internationally to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

  6. CAST Brings Key Stakeholders To Cooperatively Develop & Implement A Prioritized Safety Agenda Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCCA • NATCA** • NTSB** • EASA Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer Current composition

  7. Data Drove CAST Focus Areas Act on Highest Priority Threats • Initial Agenda: • Approach & landing accidents • Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) • Loss of control accidents • Runway incursions • Uncontained engine failures • Weather-related accidents CAST 1998

  8. CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Rigorous Processes Created to Guide Development & Implementation of CAST Plan

  9. Implementation of CAST Enhancements Has Significantly Improved Aviation Safety Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% 60% Does not include new “remaining risk” enhancements committed to in 2006 Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Evac Total CFIT Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.

  10. Resources vs. Risk Reduction Highlights the Power of the CAST Approach 100% 10 Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN $ 9 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8 75% 7 6 Risk Eliminated $ Resource Cost ($ Billions) 50% 5 2007 2020 4 3 25% 2 1 $ $ $ 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST 2002 Plan CAST-050

  11. CAST Maintained Commitment to Implementation Despite Challenging Post-9/11 Economic Conditions CAST demonstrated that prioritized safety makes good business sense Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 Fatality Risk Reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan. 0 2002 2007

  12. CAST Outreach Has Improved Aviation Safety World-wide COSCAP CIS Specific CIS Projects ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction CAST 65 SEs 40 complete 25 in work 76% reduction COSCAP GS (2006) COSCAP BA (late 2005) PAAST CFIT and ALAR COSCAP UEMOA (late 2005) COSCAP AM Estimated Fatality Risk Reduction

  13. Summary • Unprecedented partnership & positive impact • Long-term industry & government commitment • Dramatically improved aviation safety in US and World-wide • Committed to continue to drive future safety improvements • Enable cooperative incident-level data sharing • CAST is deserving of the Collier Trophy “for its outstanding achievement and dramatically improving the safety of commercial aviation and saving lives in the US and around the world”

  14. Questions COMMERCIAL AVIATION SAFETY TEAM

  15. Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reduction Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive data management AccidentRate Design solutions Time

  16. Wind Shear Accidents DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 727 Denver 8/7/75 727 New Orleans 7/9/82 DC-10 Faro 12/21/92 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/76 727 Doha 3/14/79 L1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 707 Pago Pago 1/30/74 Gov’t and Industry Focused ActionLed to Dramatic Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents Training/ Pilot Guide Reactive Wind Shear Systems Enhancements R Predictive Wind Shear Systems 1970 75 80 90 2000 85 95

  17. CAST entered loop in 1997/98 Monitor Identify Prioritize Frequency Emerging risk due to system change Resolve Time CAST metrics to ensure implementation and effectiveness; identify areas for additional action Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefits

  18. CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Concept for the Future Combining isolated data sources can leverage the power of safety information data sharing PDARS FOQA Other ASAP ASRS Legacy Weather NTSB ROMAN Possible safety issues AIDS ECCAIRS SDR NAIMS NAOMS Firewall

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