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IRI Experience

IRI Experience. with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters connects to development goals/programs. Climate knowledge/information as a resource.

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IRI Experience

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  1. IRI Experience • with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters • connects to development goals/programs Climate knowledge/information as a resource

  2. “strong” forecast founding of IRI was motivated by anticipation of this kind of situation

  3. RBM MoH WHO Public Health Malaria in Botswana • Epidemic prone country • Good surveillance system for epidemics • 20 years of data for historic analysis • Interested in incorporating seasonal • climate forecasts into malaria control planning • (Currently: observed climate anomalies)

  4. Activities: Demonstrate the use of climate information in malaria control Expected Output Malaria Early Warning System RBM MoH WHO

  5. Potential of Seasonal Climate Forecast to predict high/low Malaria years Anomalies in DJF SSTs, DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national malaria incidence (Jan-Jun) in Botswana (1982-2003)

  6. Observed rainfall and DEMETER rainfall forecast in relation to high and low malaria anomaly years Observed and forecasted Climate Anomalies Standardised Malaria Quartiles Information can be used to initiate timely interventions

  7. Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

  8. MEWS offers opportunities for planning and preparedness ……. NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres

  9. Agriculture / Food Security Greater Horn of Africa Desired outcome: Anticipate household's becoming food insecure to allow pre-emptive interventions before the situation becomes an emergency.

  10. Partners Information is being produced for and/or in collaboration with:

  11. Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec Good potential for climate forecasts:

  12. Still one step is needed: Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers do not use (e.g., Rainfall) Need to “Translate” information to the same terms that Decision Makers use (crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.) cover box

  13. COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at End of Season Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index Slide Courtesy G. Galu

  14. How are households meeting food requirements % annual food requirements food insecure

  15. Somalia: Food Economy Groups (Food Security Assessment Unit)

  16. (e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004 Climate/Environmental Monitoring + Food Economy Groups: Assess food insecurity hotspots + Seasonal Climate Outlook:

  17. FS Reported in January Food Security Outlooks (e.g., FSO for December made in August 2004) FS Outlook for December

  18. Summary • climate-related EWS have much to offer in managing risks: proactive v. reactive responses • room for further improvements in methodologies • for benefit to be realized, actions need to be tied to warnings • collaboration needed, both in research/development and in operational practice

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