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Pakistan’s Nuclear Power Needs and Future Options

Pakistan’s Nuclear Power Needs and Future Options. Parvez Butt, Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology and Ahmad Mumtaz, Sr. Director (NEP), PAEC Presentation for South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, at Brussels 17th November 2006. Overview.

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Pakistan’s Nuclear Power Needs and Future Options

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  1. Pakistan’s Nuclear Power Needs and Future Options Parvez Butt, Secretary, Ministry of Science and Technology and Ahmad Mumtaz, Sr. Director (NEP), PAEC Presentation forSouth Asian Strategic Stability Institute, at Brussels 17th November 2006

  2. Overview Energy and Economic Picture of Pakistan Present Status of Nuclear Power in Pakistan Nuclear Capacity Requirements and Official Targets Way forward Conclusion

  3. Socio-economic & Energy Picture of Pakistan: 2005 • Population: 152.5 Million • (6th most populous country) • (Urban population share ~ 34.4%) • GDP (at market prices): US$111 Billion ($742/capita) • (in 2006 Pakistan joined the ranks of Lower-Middle Income economies with GDP/capita of $ 847) • Primary Energy: 55.5 Million TOE • (Gas 50.3%, Oil 29.8%, Hydro 11.0%, Coal 7.6% and Nuclear 1.2%) • Primary Energy/capita: 0.36 TOE • (about one-fifth of the World average: 1.77 TOE)

  4. Status of Electricity Demand of Pakistan: 2005 • Peak Demand: 14,792 MW • Installed Capacity: 19,540 MW • Shortages at present, primarily due to large share of hydro • Hydro capacity is mainly based on snow melt (6,500 MW installed capacity reduces to less than 2,000 MW in winter) • Electricity Generation: 85.6 TWh • Access to Electricity: ~80% Households • Electricity Consumption: Households 45%; Industries 30%; Others 25% • Electricity Consumption/capita (excluding T&D losses): 402 kWh • (less than one-sixth of the world average of 2,516 kWh)

  5. Comparison of Electricity Generation Mix of the World and Pakistan Pakistan-2005 (86 TWh) World-2004 (17,450 TWh) * Others include geothermal, wind solar etc.

  6. KANUPP

  7. KANUPP Commercial Operation: 1972 Type: CANDU of 100 MW net (original 125 MW net) Contract: Supplied by Canada on turnkey basis Operation: O&M by PAEC; Vendor support withdrawn in 1976; Only safety related support resumed in 1992. Cumulative Net Generation: 9.98 TWh Life-time Capacity Factor: 30% (low) Present Status: Refurbished for 15 year life-extension Fuel: Manufactured locally and stored under IAEA surveillance system

  8. KANUPP

  9. CHASNUPP-1

  10. CHASNUPP-1 Commercial Operation: Sept. 2000 Type: PWR of 300 MW net capacity Contract: Supplied on turnkey basis by China Operation: O&M by PAEC; Vendor support available; Fourth Refueling planned in February 2007 Cumulative net Generation (since COD): 11.25 TWh Lifetime Capacity Factor: 70% (last 2 years: More than 85%) Fuel: Imported from China

  11. Under-Construction CHASNUPP-2

  12. CHASNUPP-2 Type: PWR of 300 MW (net) Construction Start (First Concrete Pour): Dec. 2005 Planned Commercial Operation: mid-2011 Contract Type: Being supplied by China on Turnkey basis; 50% participation in Installation & Commissioning Team planned Fuel: To be imported from China

  13. HMC-III: A Project of State Engineering Corporation

  14. PVS-Heavy CNC Machines at HMC-III

  15. CNC Deep Hole Drilling & MillingMachine

  16. World Nuclear Energy Scenario: MIT Study of 2003 *Pakistan’s nuclear capacity in 2050 projected as 10 - 20 GW for the Low and High nuclear scenarios , respectively. This capacity corresponds to the maximum assumed Electricity Demand growth of 4.7% per annum. If growth is assumed to be ~ 9% p.a, as expected in Pakistan at present, then the projected capacity would be 20 – 40 GW by 2050 in the two scenarios. Source: The Future of Nuclear Power, an interdisciplinary MIT study, 2003.

  17. Projected Capacity Mix - Reference Scenario:(Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study for Pakistan - 1998) Note: According to this scenario, nuclear capacity would correspond to some 20,000 MW in 2030. Source: Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study for Pakistan. Prepared by PAEC with the guidance of IAEA. IAEA-TECDOC1030, July 1998.

  18. Economic and Energy Growth Targets of Pakistan: 2005-2030 • Average annual economic growth in the past few years has been about 7%. • Average economic growth of 7-8% per year is planned over the next 25 years. • To achieve this economic growth: • Primary energy demand will increase by more than 6times, from 55 MTOE in 2005 to 361 MTOE in 2030. • Power generation capacity demand will increase by a factor of 8, from 19,540 MW in 2005 to 163,000 MW by 2030. Source: Medium Term Development Framework (2005-2010), Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan, May 2005.

  19. Nuclear Capacity Targets: 2005-2030 • The power capacity targets envisage a Nuclear installed capacity of at least 8,800 MW by 2030. • 8,800 MW is a prudent estimate (downgraded from 20,000 MW) based on the current international scenario. • This nuclear capacity will correspond to 5.4% of the capacity and about 8% of generation in 2030. • There is room for substantial expansion of nuclear capacity beyond 8,800 MW to reduce dependence on imported natural gas based capacity, some 50% of the total. This is elaborated in next slide.

  20. Power Generation Capacity Addition Plan MW 1. Coal resources are large, but their economics for large scale exploitation is as yet un-determined. 2. Most of the gas will be imported, unless there are large discoveries of gas locally. Source: Medium Term Development Framework (2005-2010), Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan, May 2005.

  21. Cooperation of Pakistan with International Organisations • Pakistan is a Member of • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) • World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) • Candu Owner’s Group (COG) • World Nuclear Association (WNA) • The number of visits by the Delegations/Missions/Teams of these Organisations to the Nuclear Power Plants of Pakistan and related facilities over the decades, is innumerable. • Pakistan has no need of furthering its defence capabilities through civilian nuclear facilities.

  22. Way forward • Pakistan would like to see non-discriminatory approach by NSG. Growing energy needs and inadequate indigenous energy resources dictate large scale use of nuclear power in Pakistan. • The concept ofNuclear Power Parksadvocated by PAEC since 2003, can be followed for future NPPs in Pakistan. • Chairman PAEC (then Mr. Parvez Butt), while addressing WNA, London on September 06 2003, said: • “We would like to suggest joint ventures for setting up nuclear power plants in Pakistan. To alleviate proliferation and other concerns, nuclear power plants can be treated in a special manner. Several NPPs could be constructed in a designated zone, the boundaries of which are specially secured to the satisfaction of all concerned. It can be ensured that the plant and the associated facilities are fully safeguarded. This could be a solution for Pakistan”.

  23. Way forward (Contd.) • The Nuclear Power Parks concept is now included in one of the five ‘Multilateral Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel Cycle’, suggested by the Expert Group constituted by the DG of IAEA (IAEA INFCIRC/640, 2005). • Like the existing and under-construction NPPs, all imported NPPs will also be under IAEA Safeguards.

  24. (March 2006)

  25. Conclusion • Pakistan has the experience of nuclear power plants since 1966. • It has demonstrated that it has responsible nuclear organisations to ensure safe and reliable operation of NPPs. • It is taking definite steps to manufacture specialised NPP equipment and could be a supplier of the same to the economic benefit of both the parties. • It could play a positive role in the renaissance of nuclear power worldwide.

  26. THANKS

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