Public Opinion & Polling

1. Public Opinion & Polling Stephanow, Popp, & Collins 2008

2. Formation of Public Opinion • Family • Mass Media • Schools • Peer Groups • Opinion Leaders • Historic Events

3. Family • Basic attitudes toward • Authority • Rules of behavior • Property • Neighbors • People of other races • People of other religions

4. Mass Media • Information about politics & public policy • Platform for political leaders. • Many political scientists feel media is now 2nd to family for influencing as it is the “new parent” for latch key kids

5. Schools • Good citizenship skills & attitudes • Specific knowledge about politics • Informal learning about people with different backgrounds. • Ex. Pledge of Allegiance

6. Peer Groups • Reinforcement of one’s existing opinions.

7. Opinion Leaders • Information from which people draw ideas and convictions about politics and public policy. Laura Ingraham Bill O’Reilly Jesse Jackson

8. Historic Events • Information on issues arising out of or related to the events. • Example: 9/11

9. Public Opinion • What the public thinks about an issue at a particular point in time; constantly changing • Measured by opinion polls

10. Purpose of Polling • Provide some input in the policymaking process • Help candidates detect public preferences • Provides an outlet for ideas in times other than election years • Help interpret the meaning of elections

11. Polling and Elections • Public’s opinion on the issues help translate the meaning of an election • Candidates, aware of public opinion, stay away from extremist positions • Results • Political process becomes more responsive to voters • Elections often between two moderates

12. Opinion Polling

13. History of Polling • 1824: informal polling • Late 1800’s, started using RANDOM sampling. • Bag of marbles with black & white marbles. • Shake up, count out 1,000 • Do it over & over • See a pattern.

14. History of Polling • 1824: informal polling • Late 1800’s, started using RANDOM sampling. • Bag of marbles with black & white marbles. • Shake up, count out 1,000 • Do it over & over • See a pattern. • 19th Century: Straw Poll

15. History of Polling • 1936: Literary Digest • Mail out cards • Had worked the previous 3 elections. • Predicted 60/40% landslide for Landin over FDR. • They were WRONG! Why? • Only upper income subscribed to magazine. During Great Depression. Not a good sample. • Gallup used random sampling and got it right.

16. How to conduct a good Poll…

17. Step #1Define your universe. • Who do you want to answer your question(s)? • All males, all females? • Registered voters only? • Nationwide or just Texans? • Etc.

18. Step #2 • Choose a sample • Try to make it as random as possible to fit your universe criteria. • Can use subgroups or strata (aka stratified sample) • Equal amount of men/women • Different age groups • Different religions • Different socioeconomic backgrounds • Etc.

19. Random-digit dialing • Since 60’s, a lot of telephoning • Can even randomize within the household • Adult with most recent birthday.

20. Step #3 • Prepare valid questions • Do not have biased questions. • Do not lead the answers.

21. Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered • 1. Some people feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing. • Agree 55.1% Disagree 44.5%

22. Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered • 2. Some people feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing, while others feel each person should provide his own housing. Which comes closest to how you feel about this? • Government responsible 44.6% • Government not responsible 55.4%

23. Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered • 3. Some people feel each person should provide his own housing, while others feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing. Which comes closest to how you feel about this? • Government responsible 29.5% • Government not responsible 70.5%

24. Example 2 – Voting • Choose the best question and describe why? • 1. Did you vote in the last election? • OR • 2. Did you vote in the last election, or because of work or other responsibilities were you too busy?

25. Explain the advantages or disadvantages of • each of the following types of questions or surveys: • Close-ended question • Open-ended question • Filter questions • Personal interviews • Telephone surveys • Mail surveys • Internet surveys

26. Step #4 • Select and control the means be which the poll will be taken. • Timing • Time of day? • After a major event? • In person, mail, phone, internet, etc. • Accents can make a difference • If in person, the appearance of the polltaker.

27. Step #5 • Report the results. • Usually in percentages. • Should give date poll was taken. • How many people were questioned. • Characteristics of sample. • Margin of Error

28. Margin of Error (MOE) • 1,000 is considered a good sample. • Gives a + or – 3 MOE. • 2,000 doesn’t really help MOE • 600-1,000 is okay unless you’re going for a subpopulation.

29. Scientific Polling: Sampling Error (aka MOE) • In general, the greater the number of people sampled the smaller the sampling error • Results of polls usually reflect how people will respond with a 95 percent degree of certainty (confidence level), within plus/minus 3 % points

30. If the election were held today, who would you vote for President? (+/- 3) • Obama 48% • McCain 46% • Add 3 to both. Obama 51%, McCain 49%. • Subtract 3 from both. Obama 45%, McCain 43%. • Add 3 to Obama, subtract 3 from McCain • Obama 51%, McCain 43% (O has wide margin) • Subtract 3 from Obama, add 3 to McCain • Obama 45%, McCain 49% (Mac is now ahead)

31. Tracking Polls • Continuous. • Start 60 days out from an election. • Combine the last 3 days. • Good at measuring momentum. • Zogby, Harris, Gallup, Rasmuessen all do it slightly different, but close enough.

32. Horse Race Polling

33. Good internet sites • www.pollster.comTake an average of all polls. • www.pollingreport.com

34. 2008—Problems in polling • Growing problems with cell phones • Less land-lines. • In past 2 years, increase 12-17% of no land-lines. • Increase in # with caller ID and call-block features – refuse to answer if don’t know the # • In 1960s, 2/3 of persons contacted completed the survey; today around 38% participate in survey and complete it Are lower eco., male, young, voters who tend to support Obama being measured? NO! Are busy professionals, more educ and protestants who tend to support McCain being measured? No! Are we balanced in polling????

35. 2008—Problems in polling • Internet Surveys • “interactive surveys” • Zogby does a lot • Short-term, no big difference.

36. 2008—Problems in polling • 10-12% of voters decide right at the very end. • Move like a herd. • Must track to the VERY end to get accurate results.

37. 2008—Problems in polling • Early Voting makes Exit polls inaccurate • 2000: 15% by mail or in person • 2004: 22% • 2008 prediction: 33% • Texas is predicting that almost ½ of all voters will vote early this year!

38. Problems in Polling ** • “Spiral of silence” (new term) • Noelle-Neumann study • Process by which a majority opinion becomes exaggerated because minority opinion holders do not feel comfortable speaking out in opposition; dissenters feel under pressure thereby remaining silent and accepting the majority viewpoint • Results from group peer pressure • Often changes upon removal or disbursement of the group • Effect – often the slim majority is embolden by the silence to speak even more confidently and becomes the overwhelming outward voice of the group

39. Types of Polls • Straw or SLOP - • unreliable as can vote many times; • only those interested participate • Tracking polls – see notes earlier • Push polls – • Not a real poll as designed to influence opinion, NOT measure it • Provides negative info (often false and misleading) in the question stem • Exit polls: asking voters for whom they voted after leaving the voting booth • Some lie as don’t want their companion or neighbor to know how they really voted; Don’t want others to overhear • Can give voting tendency prior to final count, especially if one candidate has a huge lead

40. Proliferation of Polling • Proliferation linked to ability of candidates/politicians to raise money to buy polling services • Clinton spent close to $1.9 million alone in 1993 (after the election) on polling • Hundreds of polls in this as in other presidential campaigns

41. Criticisms of Polling • People lie • “Likely” or “registered” voters may be suspect • Polls show flat snapshots of a three dimensional world • Can NOT show intensity of opinions, only quantity • Passive, often ill-informed decisions are substitutes for active expression

42. Criticisms of Polling • The wording of polling is important in understanding poll results • Responses to highly emotional issues are often skewed depending on the wording • Ex. Support for abortion can range from 40 to 90 percent depending on the question asked • Ex. “Welfare” or “assistance to the poor”

43. Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? • Government officials pay attention not only to the direction of public opinion but to its duration • When changes in public opinion were clear-cut, government policy usually became consistent with public opinion

44. Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion? • Yet policy can sometimes not be reflective of public opinion • Those who vote often differ in opinion with those who do not vote • Elected officials respond to voters • There is noting sacred about public opinion • Public opinion may be wrong

45. Public opinion is not the only influence on public policy, nor is it always the most important Also influencing policy are… Interest Groups Political Parties Other government institutions Government officials Is Government Responsive to Public Opinion?

46. Media and Polls • Should the media give tracking poll results during early voting or the last week prior to the general election? • In 2004, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp quit broadcasting poll results in the 3 weeks prior to election in order to not deflect attention away from the issues • Should the media report election returns and “call or project the winner” the night of the election? • East coast polls close hours before West coast (1980 Carter conceded to Reagan 3 hours before Cal polls closed!) • See the 2000 CBS projection in Florida (butterfly ballot) • 2004 election and Ohio

47. Will this year be another polling mistake? Gallup polls quit 2 weeks before election, missing last-minute voters’ shift to Truman

50. How Americans Think Politically • Answer the following two questions on a sheet of scrap paper. Do not confer with your neighbors.