Climate of Opinion

1. Climate of Opinion

2. Background • Methodology and data • Climate change and voters in marginal constituencies • Framing climate policies • Appendix on weighting

3. Background • Climate change not a priority issue for voters • Firm opposition (60%+) to higher environmental taxes • Hostile right-wing press • Fear that strong climate policies may be a vote loser, especially for swing voters • How to best build political space?

4. Background • Environmentalist frame not effective for climate change – aspiration and innovation frame instead (Shellenberger and Nordhaus) • Political and economic ‘convergence’ (Giddens) as a route to political space • Obama: ‘energy independence’, ‘clean energy economy’ • In UK, all political parties experimenting with similar concepts • But lack of evidence on what will work in British political context

5. Background • Methodology and data • Climate change and voters in marginal constituencies • Framing climate policies • Appendix on weighting

6. Methodology • Survey testing views and frames, focused on marginal constituencies, distinguishing swing voters • Draft questionnaire pre-tested through in-depth interviews • On-line survey of 3,032 people (from YouGov panel) in 157 marginals. • Fieldwork 16-18 September 2009 (pre-Conference season)

7. Data weighting • Weighted demographically to be representative of the UK in terms of age, gender and social class • Past-vote weighted based on the type of marginal constituency they reside-in (see appendix) • Turnout weighted to reflect their self-reported likelihood of voting (see appendix) • After weighting for turnout likelihood, the total number of respondents falls to 2,291

8. Defining marginals Con 7% or less (102 seats) 5% or less (19 seats) 7% or less (29 seats) Lib Dem Lab 5% or less (7 seats)

9. Defining swing voters • Swing voters (weighted n = 1,165) defined as those who: • Chose a party in when asked which party they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow OR • Chose a party when asked a follow up question about which party they would be most inclined to support AND • Who said there was a “Slight Chance” “Fair Chance” or “Good Chance” of voting for one or both of the other two main parties

10. Background • Methodology and data • Climate change and voters in marginal constituencies • Framing climate policies • Appendix on weighting

11. Only a small minority consider climate change/global warming as the single most important issue And which ONE of the following issues do you think will be the single most important to you in deciding who to vote for? Base – All (2,291)

12. Climate change is amongst the top 3-4 issues for 17% Thinking about the next general election, which three or four of the following issues do you think will be most important to you in deciding who to vote for?Base – All (2,291)

13. Top 3-4 issues for deciding how to vote • Who chooses climate change/global warming more? • 18-34 year olds (26%) • Lib Dems leaning (24%) and ‘Other’ leaning (27%) • Who chooses climate change/global warming less? • 55+ year olds (11%) • Cons leaning (11%)

14. A majority accept the existence of man-made climate change To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?(Base – All 2,291 for first, split samples of c.800 for second and third)

15. A majority disagree that there’s nothing they can do about climate change To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?(Base – All 2,291)

16. More people see the challenge as global rather than national To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?(Base – All 2,291)

17. Who is surer about man-made climate change, and thinks it will have a bigger impact? Women Younger people ABC1s Lab and Lib Dems leaning Swing voters Who is less sure, and thinks it will have less impact? Men Older people C2DEs Cons and other leaning 17 Views on man-made climate change

18. Overall story on climate change and voters in marginal constituencies • Climate change is a big concern only for a small minority (as in the country overall)… • but figures more for younger LibDems/others • A clear majority accept that man-made climate change exists… • but more see it as a global rather than a national problem • More convinced and concerned are: young, ABC1 women, Lab or Lib Dem leaning, and swing voters • Less convinced and concerned are older C2DE men, Cons leaning

19. Background Methodology and data Climate change and voters in marginal constitutencies Framing climate policies Expanding renewable energy Regulating for energy efficiency Finance for developing countries Appendix on weighting 19

20. Framing the renewables policy • We tested three different frames for the policy of “getting 15% of our energy from renewable sources like wind power and solar energy by 2015”: • To help reduce our reliance on foreign oil and gas we should … • To help tackle climate change… • To create new economic opportunities for Britain… • We looked at the frames in two ways: • How far people agreed with the policy • Whether respondents would be more likely to vote for a party that proposed that policy • We also looked at a series of arguments for and against each proposition

21. The energy security frame was more powerful than either the climate change or the economic opportunities frames – over 50% of respondents say they agree strongly or very strongly with the policy Base – split samples of c.750

22. For swing voters, the gap closes slightly between the climate change and the energy security frames – but energy security is still the clear winner Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Base – split samples of c.300

23. Energy security is also the frame that has the biggest impact in respondents’ likelihood of voting for a party You will now see some things that political parties have been saying are their priorities for Britain. For each one, please tell me whether it makes you more likely or less likely to support that party, or if it makes no differenceBase – split samples of c.750

24. Women are generally more supportive of renewables expansion regardless of the frame Base – split samples of c.750

25. Older people are particularly unresponsive to the economic frame for renewables Base – split samples of c. 750

26. Social classes C1DE are relatively more responsive to the energy security frame Base – split samples of c. 750

27. Tory voters relatively hostile to renewables, Labour voters responsive to energy security, Lib Dems to climate change and economic opportunities Base – split samples of c. 750. Split by reported voting intention

28. For the energy security frame for renewables policy, the strongest arguments for and against were: “The era of cheap oil and gas is well and truly over - supplies worldwide will begin to run out within a generation and that means imported energy will become more expensive. We need to make a start on renewable energy now as an alternative” • net more supportive +71% “The world's not going to start running out of oil, gas or coal for at least half a century it's too early to be taking drastic action like this” • net less supportive -25% But overall, the arguments for and against shift support for the energy security-framed policy only slightly. Agreement and disagreement both reduced slightly, with a slight rise in people saying ‘neither’ or ‘don’t know’.

29. For the climate change frame for renewables policy, the strongest arguments for and against were: “Climate change means that we will need to rely heavily on green energy in the future - we need to make a start now to develop the technologies.” • net more supportive +70% “Wind turbines ruin the landscape for local people” • net less supportive -19% Again, the arguments for and against hardly shift overall support for the policy framed in terms of tackling climate change, with a slight reduction in support

30. For the economic opportunities frame for renewables policy, the strongest arguments for and against were: “Expanding renewable energy in the UK would create over 650,000 new job opportunities by 2015. • net more supportive +65% The argument that: “Other countries, like Germany, the USA and even China are developing new renewable energy industries - we risk getting left behind if we don't develop our own market” also did well “Even if we did invest in renewables, most of the jobs would go to companies in other countries, not the UK” • net less supportive -38% Again, the arguments for and against had little effect on support for the policy.

31. Language points • “Middle Eastern and Russian” oil and gas rather than “foreign” results in a 5% boost in net agreement with the renewables policy • “Wind and tidal power” rather than “Wind power and solar energy” results in a 5% boost in net agreement with the renewables policy • Talking about “clean energy sources” rather than “renewable sources” results in a 12 point boost in agreement with the renewables policy

32. Overall story on framing renewables policy • Expansion of renewables is broadly popular • Re-framing the policy as an energy security issue increases support… • but the economic opportunity frame does not (except for Labour voters)… • possibly because many people believe jobs would go to other countries • All the frames are quite robust to counter-arguments • Language makes a difference

33. Framing the “Energy efficiency” policy • We tested three different frames for the policy that “the Government should require people to make their homes more energy efficient. That means giving people financial help to do things like insulate their homes or replace an old boiler and penalties for those who fail to improve their homes”: • To help reduce our reliance on foreign oil and gas we should … • To help tackle climate change… • To make peoples homes warmer and more comfortable… • We looked at the frames in two ways: • How far people agreed with the policy • Whether respondents would be more likely to vote for a party that proposed that policy • We also looked at a series of arguments for and against each proposition

34. This policy receives less support across the board – and the choice of frame makes little difference Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Base – split samples of c.750

35. This is also true of the impact that the policy has on likelihood of voting for the party that proposes it You will now see some things that political parties have been saying are their priorities for Britain. For each one, please tell me whether it makes you more likely or less likely to support that party, or if it makes no differenceBase – split samples of c.750

36. Women most responsive to energy security frame for energy efficiency regulation; men to warmth and comfort frame Base – split samples of c.750

37. Younger people find energy security and climate change frames for energy efficiency more compelling than older people Base – split samples of c.750

38. ABC1 social classes more responsive to climate change frame for energy efficiency Base – split samples of c.750

39. Tory voters most sceptical of all frames, Labour voters most responsive to energy security frame, LD voters to warmth and comfort frame Base – split samples of c.750. Split by current voting intention

40. For the energy security frame for energy efficiency policy, the strongest arguments for was: “As we run out of North Sea oil and gas, we need to be sure that the lights won't go out - saving energy will give us greater control over our own economy” • net more supportive +72% None of the counter-arguments, including a “nanny state argument, had any serious purchase However, the arguments for and against slightly reduced net support for the policy framed in terms of energy security

41. For the climate change frame for energy efficiency policy, the strongest arguments for and against were: “Using less energy is the cheapest and simplest way to cut carbon emissions” • net more supportive +72% Again, none of the counter-arguments, had much force, the strongest being: “There is no point the UK taking action like this on climate change while China is building a new coal-fired power station every week” • net less supportive -9% The arguments for and against the policy framed in terms of climate change had little impact – support remained stable

42. For the warmer and more comfortable homes frame for energy efficiency policy, the strongest arguments for and against were: “A simple measure like loft insulation could cut heating bills by £150, and would pay for itself within 2 years. Similarly, old boilers waste a lot of energy - a modern system is up to 90% efficient.” • net more supportive +70% “This is just another excuse for stealth taxes” • net less supportive +27% As a result of the arguments, support for the “warmer and more comfortable homes”-framed efficiency policy saw a slight drop in support (and a rise in those who felt strongly opposed)

43. Overall story on framing energy efficiency policy • Regulation for energy efficiency gets net support but is less popular than renewables • The way the policy is framed makes no significant difference • Counter-arguments get little agreement, with the exception of ‘stealth taxes’ • Again, all the frames are quite robust to counter-arguments

44. Framing the finance for developing countries policy • We tested four different frames for the policy that “the UK should provide financial assistance to poor countries to help them adapt to the impacts of climate change and to invest in clean energy”: • To help avoid threats to our security … • To help save lives and protect the most vulnerable… • To help prevent climate change from ruining the planet… • We helped cause climate change so… • We looked at the frames in two ways: • How far people agreed with the policy • Whether respondents would be more likely to vote for a party that proposed that policy • We also looked at a series of arguments for and against each proposition

45. Overall the policy is neither widely popular nor widely unpopular Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Base – split samples of c.450

46. Little impact on respondents’ likelihood of voting for the party that proposes it, regardless of frame. Net scores suggest that security and ‘we caused it’ may actually repel voters. You will now see some things that political parties have been saying are their priorities for Britain. For each one, please tell me whether it makes you more likely or less likely to support that party, or if it makes no differenceBase – split samples of c.450

47. Men more opposed to financial assistance; security frame works best for both men and women Base – split samples of c.450

48. Older people more opposed to financial assistance and most responsive to security frame; younger people most responsive to climate change frame Base – split samples of c.450

49. Social classes C2DE most opposed to financial assistance, and are particularly unresponsive to historical responsibility and climate change frames Base – split samples of c.450

50. Tory voters most opposed to financial assistance, Labour voters most supportive and responsive to security frame. Climate change frame works best for Lib Dems Base – split samples of c.450. Split by current voting intention