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Manny and Andrew

Manny and Andrew. What is Starcraft II. RTS (real time strategy game) Made by Blizzard entertainment Came out in 2010 Sequel to original Starcraft (1998) Over 5 million copies sold. Competitive Starcraft. Starcraft is a huge competitive game

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Manny and Andrew

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  1. Manny and Andrew

  2. What is Starcraft II • RTS (real time strategy game) • Made by Blizzard entertainment • Came out in 2010 • Sequel to original Starcraft (1998) • Over 5 million copies sold

  3. Competitive Starcraft • Starcraft is a huge competitive game • Played in large tournaments for huge cash prizes • Played all around the world • Especially in South Korea • Starcraft II starting to gain popularity, in the current American MLG circuit

  4. South Korean Starcraft in a Nutshell

  5. What we wanted to research • See if APM was indicative of a better player (better ladder) • What was the most played race? • How did the APM vary between the races?

  6. Procedure • Joined rooms of 16 people via the random matchmaking system • Picked 2 via calculator’s random function • Looked at their 1v1 match history • Downloaded replay • Used SC2gears to analyze data

  7. Race Distribution 40% 35% 25%

  8. Actions Per Minute • APM: ‘Actions per minute’ • Every time you do something (keystroke, mouse click, etc) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbpCLqryN-Q

  9. APM by League Grand master: Left skewed, median is the center @ 181.5, Fairly tight, w/ 2 outliers, highest, range 82-260 Master: Right skewed, Median is the center@157.5, largest spread, no outliers, second highest, range 79-287 Diamond: Symmetric, Mean center@ 113.14, looser spread, no outliers, third highest, range 66-178 Platinum: Right skewed, median center@71 , tight spread, no outliers, fifth highest, range 580123 Gold: Left skewed, median center@ 81, tightest spread, no outliers, fourth highest, range 68-81 Silver: Symmetric, mean center@ 69.75, tight spread, no outliers, smallest center, range 54-83

  10. Actions per minute by Race Protoss: Right Skewed, median as Center@144 ,bimodal, fairly tight spread, range 58-227 Terran: Right skewed, unimodal, Median center@ 126, looser spread, range 54-287 Zerg: Right skewed, median as Center@152.2, unimodal, loose spread, range 60-271

  11. Regression Slope T-Test • Linearity Assumption 1. Yes, looks linear • 2. Independence assumption 2. checked residual • plot, no pattern • 3. Equal variance assumption 3. no fanning/thickening • on plot X v Y • 4. Normal Population assumption 4. Normal prob. Plot of • residuals looks linear

  12. H0: Β = 0 (no change in resources spent) Ha: Β ≠ 0 (change in resources spent) b -0 t 1 (n-2) SE(b ) 1 1 1 Conditions met  T Distribution  Regression slope T-Test .01764437-0 9.512131527 .001854933 -11 p(t>9.512131527 l df=38)=1.3454x10 We reject Ho because our p-val of 1.13454x10^-11 < .05=alpha We have sufficient evidence to say that there is a change in resources spent over the Time period of game.

  13. GOF Test Ho: The data is consistent with a specified distribution. Ha: The data is not consistent with a specified distribution. • Conditions: • State:Check: • SRS 1. Our collected data was random • Categorical data 2. Yes, race is categorical • Population > 10n 3. There are more than 400 Starcraft players • All exp. Cell counts >5 4. Yes 2 2 (14-12.522) (16-14.224) 12.552 14.224 ...=1.175 P(Χ(squared)> 1.175 I df=38)=.556

  14. We fail to reject Ho because the p-value of .556>(alpha)=.05 • We have sufficient evidence to say that our sample races matches the race distribution of all Starcraft players

  15. Conditions: • State:Check: • SRS 1. Our collected data was random • Independence 2. Assumed • Population > 10n 3. There are more than 400 Starcraft players • N>30 4. 40>30 T-Interval APM Conditions met  T Distribution  1 sample T-interval INVT(2.02269) 137.6 +- 2.02269 (62.1812/6.3246) We are 95% confident that the population mean of APM ranges from (117.713, 157.487)

  16. Conditions: • State:Check: • SRS 1. Our collected data was random • Independence 2. Assumed • Population > 10n 3. There are more than 400 Starcraft players • N>30 4. 40>30 Conditions met  T Distribution  1 sample T-interval INVT(2.02269) 706.525 +- 2.02269 (334.138/6.3246) We are 95% confident that the population mean of time of game ranges from (599.663, 813.387) T-Interval Time of Game

  17. Bias/Error • Different styles of keyboard (mechanical/rubber dome/scissor switch) • Playing a different race for a little while • Undercoverage • ‘going easy’

  18. Personal opinions • Manny: • Blizzard fanboy • Love the competitive scene that it spawns • Believe APM is reflective of better players • APM based on race • Andrew • Love the game • Also believe APM is reflective of better players • APM based on race as well

  19. Conclusions/applications to population • APM can be a very good judgment of the skill of a player • Most played race to be found was Terran • Highest APM was found to be Zerg • Resource spending increases over time • APM between 117.713 and 157.487 (95% conf.) • Time of game between 599.663 and 813.387 seconds (95% conf.)

  20. Sources • http://sites.google.com/site/sc2gears/ • http://www.sc2ranks.com/

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