The WMO context of COPS: WWRP-THORPEX Dr. Jeanette Onvlee,

1. The WMO context of COPS: WWRP-THORPEX Dr. Jeanette Onvlee, Chair WWRP/WG on mesoscale forecasting 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

2. The History of WMOWeather Forecast Research • 1998 50th session of Executive Council established WWRP as a new programme that encompassed the original Programme on Very Short- and Short-range Weather Prediction Research and the Programme on Medium- and Long-range Weather Prediction Research that date back to the 1970s • 2003 14th session of WMO Congress established the THORPEX programme supported through extra-budgetary funds • 2006 14th session of CAS, 58th session Executive Council and CAS Management Board led to the decision that WWRP and THORPEX should be implemented together under a common Strategic Plan and a “new improved” WWRP from 2007 onwards 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

3. WWRP FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS A FORECAST RESEARCH PROJECTS TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER: • FDPs, Meetings • TRAINING, etc B C • Traditionally WWRP dealt mostly with A and B • THORPEX arose to fill gaps in A and C • As of 2007, the “new improved” WWRP will deal with all components LINKING TO USER COMMUNITY: - OPERATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTS - CLIMATE MODELING - SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION

4. The organization of WWRP-THORPEX WGNE: AREP-WCRP WCRP&WGNE Incorporating aerosols, ozone and greenhouse gases into NWP application ET- Weather Modification Global Atm. Watch (GAW) WWRP-THORPEX

5. THORPEX WMO Goal: reduce loss of life and damage in weather-related natural disasters Specific aims of THORPEX: • Improve forecast skill through research in predictability and dynamic processes • Target satellite and in-situ observations as input for a global interactive forecast system (GIFS) • Develop and evaluate data assimilation systems for the assimilation of targeted observations • Test and demonstrate the effectiveness of a global multi-model multi-analysis ensemble forecasting system (TIGGE) • Demonstrate societal and economic impact of improved forecasts and their use in improved decision-making tools - end-to-end approach: from research to linking with user community - to be reached through regional research plans, campaigns, experiments 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

6. Global Interactive Forecast System as envisaged by THORPEX End-to-end forecast system“tuned” for end users, using targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point. 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

7. Mesoscale Forecasting • MAP D-PHASE: To demonstrate the benefits of forecasting heavy precipitation and related flood events, as gained from improved understanding, refined atmospheric and hydrologic modeling, and advances in technological abilities acquired through research work within the MAP • COPS (Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study): focusing on the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts in low-mountain regions where severe systematic errors are found, which limit the application of quantitative precipitation forecasts for applications in hydrology, particularly for flash flood forecasting. • Beijing 2008 RDP on Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction: focuses on 6-36h mesoscale ensemble prediction in order to demonstrate how the state-of-the-art mesoscale ensemble systems can provide an improved weather service. All forecasting products will also be verified. 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

8. Nowcasting • Beijing 2008 FDP: focusing on nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (0-6 hours) of convective storm tracks, precipitation and severe weather events. To demonstrate how state-of the-art nowcasting could provide an improved weather service associated with Olympic Games. The fist trial of the projects in July/August 2006 was successful. • WWRP International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (WSN05) (Toulouse, France, 5-9 September 2005): The aim of the Symposium was to examine the capabilities, opportunities and requirements for improved forecasts in the 0-6 hour timeframe. Special emphasis was placed on forecasts of high impact weather such as summer convective hazards (heavy rain, hail, lightning, high winds), as well as winter weather events (snowstorm, blizzards, etc.) and other hazardous conditions (fog, low ceiling and visibility, etc.). • Third WWRP Nowcasting Training Workshop (Pretoria, South Africa , 28 Nov-9 Dec 2005 ) 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

9. Tropical Meteorology Research • Sixth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) held from 20 to 30 November 2006 in San Jose, Costa Rica with the theme “ Quantitative Forecast Guidance for Tropical Cyclone Landfall in Relation to an Effective Warning System”. • Third WMO International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-III) (Hangzhou, China, November 2004) produced a technical document : The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast (WMO/TD-No. 1266, 542 pages, published in 2005). • A FDP Proposal on Development of an Advanced Tropical Cyclone EarlyWarning System for the Philippines was presented at the Third International Early Warning Conference (EWC III) (Bonn, Germany, 27-29 March 2006) and an Implementation Plan was submitted to WMO DPM Office. 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

10. Forecasting Verification • WGNE/WWRP Joint Verification Working Group chaired by B. Brown developed a Real Time Forecast Verification System (RTFVS) for Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP . • Third International Verification Methods Workshop has been held in ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, from 29 January to 2 February 2007. This workshop has been organized by WGNE/WWRP Joint Verification Working Group, and co-sponsored by ECMWF, WMO and WCRP. 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

11. Cross-links with climate:WWRP-THORPEX and WCRP • JSC/WCRP member of ICSC and science groups • THORPEX in WCRP/COPES • Joint project initiated to develop a unified ultra-high-resolution global weather and climate prediction system • Collaboration in TIGGE • TIGGE and Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) • Similar technical issues (data, archiving, policy) • Potential for “seamless” days-seasons prediction systems • Links established between THORPEX and TFSP • Is a joint effort on clouds and precipitation parameterization in NWP models needed? 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

12. The WWRP-THORPEX Strategic Plan To be formulated in the course of 2007/2008. Elements: • Synoptic-scale Meteorology • Meso-scale Weather Forecasting • Tropical Meteorology: Tropical Storms &Monsoons • Convection, Clouds and Precipitation Parameterization • Nowcasting • Forecast verification • Societal and Economic Applications • Incorporating Atmospheric Aerosols and Ozone In NWP Models (supporting GEMS and similar efforts) 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

13. Science Plan peer-reviewed; • Implementation Plan 2004-2015 approved; • Approved annual expenditure $ 1.2M through a trust fund; • First Symposium (Montreal,2004) • Regional Committees - RAII,IV,VI • Southern Hemisphere alliance • Second Symposium (Landshut, Bavaria, Germany, 4-8 Dec 2006) • THORPEX regional plan for RA VI (nearly) completed 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007

14. Toward a Strategic Plan for WWRP-THORPEX • Hold THORPEX meetings in December 2006 and February 2007 • Establish JSC-WWRP • Hold meeting of JSC in April 2007 and organize the development of the plan within an 18 month framework including consultation with WGNE, WCRP, WWW 5th COPS Workshop, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, March 2007