Navy's Strengths in Tropical Cyclone Research

1. Interagency Strategic Research Plan For Tropical Cyclones – A View from The Top 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Kim Curry Deputy Technical Director Oceanographer of the Navy

2. Bottom Line Up Front Question: What are Navy strengths in Tropical Cyclone Research? - Development of Navy models NOGAPS / COAMPS - Funding of academia, industry and federal laboratories - Vigorous research program in coupled ocean and atmosphere models - Efficient end-to-end research to operations transition Question: Which research priorities detailed in the inter-agency strategic research plan is Navy addressing? - Coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling and data assimilation - Quantitative use of remote sensing observations - Impact of Tropical Cyclones on the maritime domain Question: What resources can Navy bring to bear on TC research? - Basic research (6.1) ~ $3.5M / yr - Applied research (6.2) ~ $2M / yr - Transition to Operations (6.4) ~ $600K / yr

3. BLUF (Cont) Question: From the policy perspective, how can Navy help gain inter-agency support for TC research through individual agency budgets and on Capitol Hill? Navy will continue to participate at the appropriate mission level in Joint development programs and interagency activities

4. 59th IHC -Operational Requirements 2005 • Validated 14 Operational Requirements of the TC • Forecast and Warning Centers • Department of Defense emphasized their top three • Operational Requirements (OR): • Improved track forecasts out to 5 days • Improved structure forecasts: radius of 50-kt • and 35-kt wind radii • More accurate forecasts of wave heights and • radius of 12 foot seas

5. 60th IHC - Research Requirements 2006 • Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) ) system developed by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey to optimize the forecasting process. • Operational Users include: • Joint Typhoon Warning Center • National Hurricane Center • Central Pacific Hurricane Center • Navy sponsored R&D includes: • Tropical Cyclone Genesis • Probabilistic Prediction of High Impact Weather • Multi-Scale Tropical Dynamics • Developmental efforts in Ocean Coupling and Data Assimilation directly • enable TC track and intensity forecasts

6. Office of Naval Research Basic and Applied The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific TyphoonsPOCs: Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. & CDR Daniel Eleuterio, Ph.D. ONR 322MM • A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI) beginning • in FY08 • First major WESTPAC field experiment since TCM93 • $10M over 5 years (basic research), leveraging T-PARC • Focus on lack of understanding of storm scale processes • (the biggest knowledge gap) • GOALS: • - Increase the predictability of the environmental forcing, formation, outer wind structure and intensity of TCs over the western North Pacific • - Reduce errors in TC structure and intensity forecasts by 50% within a • decade

7. Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean Linwood Vincent, Ph.D & Terri Paluszkiewicz, Ph.D Physical Oceanography, ONR 322PO A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI) beginning in FY08 - Building on ONR CBLAST Hurricane Program - $12M over 5 years (basic research) - Focus on improved prediction of waves & mixed layer GOALS: - Enhance methods to monitor waves and winds from SAR for Assimilation into coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere models - Improve representation of wave induced mixing in upper ocean - Use SAR assimilating model to study storm passages around islands and onto shelves An Ocean Parallel to Dr. Ferek’s WESTPAC Typhoon Proposal Explore Our Planet Website Tropical Cyclones 1850-2006

8. ONR - Science Issues/Gaps: • Forecast models do not represent all the physics • Up-scale transfer of energy is not well understood. • Observations are sparse/inadequate in critical regions • Inadequate quantitative use of all the available RS data • Storm scale processes are poorly understood • Progress is now possible on TC Evolution Problem • Models & DA are getting better • Coupling to the ocean, modulated by waves • Cloud-resolving model skill has advanced • Experimental assets will be available in the WestPac for the first time since 1993 • Once-a-decade opportunity • T-PARC has focused the research community • Many new satellite remote sensing tools have become available since ’93 • Several more by 2008 • Verification vs. TC observations has never been done 9-km

9. ONR - Naval Relevance • Increased medium-range predictability of the tropical large-scale environmental factors that influence tropical cyclone formation • Increased predictability of the location, timing, and rate of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific • Increased predictability of the evolution of the outer-wind structure of intensifying and mature tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific • Increased understanding and predictability of factors that determine motion of a TC through ET or landfall over the western North Pacific

10. Naval Research Laboratory Support for TC Research • Tropical cyclone research at NRL is performed in the following areas: • TROPICAL DYNAMICS AND PHYSICS • Tropical predictability. • Cyclogenesis. • Air-sea interaction. • DATA ASSIMILATION • Atmosphere and Ocean • New data sources • Advanced methodologies • Targeted observing techniques • Improved TC initialization • MODEL DEVELOPMENT • Air-Ocean-Wave-Land coupling • Improved multiscale ocean and numerical weather prediction • Ensemble/consensus/probabilistic guidance techniques. • SATELLITE DATA FUSION • DECISION AIDS (e.g., ATCF)

11. 72 h forecast of the 850 mb vorticity from the control (shaded) and the improved convective scheme (contours) Genesis location of Lisa (verification) From new improved convective scheme N L C Position from the Control General Research Topic Tropical Cyclone Genesis

12. General Research Topic Intensity and Structure Changes Wilma 512 km

13. Program Executive Office –PMW180 Research to Operations • Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) System • Forecast development software • Incorporate new data sources, algorithms, technology • Small-Scale Atmospheric Models: COAMPS Upgrade • Two-way Interactive grids • CBLAST Surface/Boundary Layer physics • Dynamic TC Initialization • Land/Surface Model • Intensity & Structure via Multi-Sensor Combination • Transition Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data to • FNMOC/JTWC • Newly developed multi-sensor (passive microwave/IR/Sounder) • assimilation

15. ATMOSPHERE (COAMPS/NAVDAS) Sea state-dependent Z0, Cλ/2 Sea Surface Temp. Improved winds, surface fluxes ESMF ESMF Improved winds OCEAN (NCOM/NCODA) WAVES (WAVEWATCHIII SWAN) Bottom drag, Sfc stress ESMF Sfc currents, water level General Research Topic Role of the Ocean NRL is developing fully coupled systems that include ocean data assimilation and prediction capability for u, v, t, S, SSH, waves, and surf. .

16. STORM SURGE PREDICTION SYSTEM 1 2 WWW NHC Marine Advisory Data Run PC-Tides – Obtain Holland Hurricane Model Winds 3 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z FRI JAN 06 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 50.3W … … FORECASTER STEWART $$ Interpolate Winds to Mesh DELIVERED TO NAVOCEANO, May 2006 4 Run ADCIRC ADCIRC Coastal and Estuarine Modeling TeamCheryl Ann Blain, T. Christopher Massey, James D. Dykes, Pamela G. Posey NRL Code 7300

17. Questions?