The Global Capital Market

1. The Global Capital Market Hill, Chapter 11

2. Review: Basic Economics • Economists teach that the most efficient use of resources can be achieved by free competition • “Every individual seeks the most advantageous employment for his capital…. • “Study of his own advantage necessarily leads him to prefer that employment most advantageous to society”- Adam Smith, 1776

3. Banks • Commercial banks – take depositsfrom savers, pay interest, and lend money to borrowersat slightly higher interest • Can grow very large • Most employees make <$150,000/year • Investment banks – create securities (stocks, bonds, derivatives) for companies and sell them • Also arrange mergers • Many employees make $1 million or more a year

4. How do you know when you’ve made money… • at a commercial bank? • There are many businesses where it takes a long time to know if you’ve made money • Real estate • Cattle breeding • But banking is probably the biggest and most important

5. Does this create any dangers?

6. What to do about the dangers of banking? • For centuries there has been disagreement • Free enterprise banking – let people create and run banks freely • Advocates believe most problems of banking are caused by government mistakes • They fear regulation will reduce efficiency • Government-regulated banking – government sets rules about who can start a bank and how they can run it • Advocates believe government can reduce the dangers without greatly reducing efficiency

7. A brief history of banking • Traditionally, governments regulated banking tightly • In 19th century in US and UK, much freedom of banking was introduced • Helped cause rapid economic growth • Also contributed to many ‘panics’ • Banking scandals were believed to have contributed to Great Depression of 1930s • When free trade was promoted in 1940s, 50s, banking was tightly regulated

8. In 1970s, tight regulations in many industries (banking, trucking, airlines) were believed to be preventing economic innovation and growth • Much deregulation in late 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000s

9. Functions Of A Generic Capital Market Figure 11.1: The Main Players in a Generic Capital Market

10. Attractions Of The Global Capital Market Borrowers benefit from: • the additional supply of funds global capital markets provide • the associated lower cost of capital (the price of borrowing money or the rate of return that borrowers pay investors) • The cost of capital is lower in international markets because the pool of investors is much larger than in the domestic capital market

11. Attractions Of The Global Capital Market Figure 11.3: Risk Reduction through Portfolio Diversification

12. Growth Of The Global Capital Market • Global capital markets have been growing at a rapid pace • In 1990, the stock of cross-border bank loans was just $3,600 billion • By 2006, the stock of cross border bank loans was $17,875 billion • The international bond market shows a similar pattern with $3,515 billion in outstanding international bonds in 1997, and $17, 561 billion in 2006 • International equity offerings were $18 billion in 1997 and $377 billion in 2006

13. Manias and Crashes • Unfortunately, the world economy since the time of the Holy Roman Empire (800 years ago!!!) has been plagued by • Manias – periods when everyone believes they can make money doing something that turns out not to be so great after all • Example – the dotcom boom of the early 2000s. • Crashes – periods when the economy has huge problems as the problems of the mania period unravel Kindelberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 1998

14. Mid 2000s: The world had a lending & investing mania • Deregulation • Excess savings in developing countries (China, Taiwan) and Japan • It’s hard to spend money in a fast-growing economy • “Easy money” in the developed countries • U.S. government allowed money supply to grow

15. Banks, most of all in U.S., issued ‘sub-prime’ mortgages • Banks did not want to own them, but packaged pieces of many mortgages into bonds • Banks said the mortgages underlying the bonds wouldn’t all default at once • Rating agencies (firms resembling Consumer Reports) agreed • Developing country & Japan investors bought • Eventually the pile got so bad people saw the problems

17. The Crash of 2008 • Many banks have so many hard-to-evaluate investments that no one knows if their assets are worth more than their liabilities • Would you invest in your bank if your deposits weren’t government guaranteed?

18. Governments… • Lent huge amounts of money to banks • Took over dying banks • Launched huge stimulus packages (deficit spending)

19. So what do we do? • Do we increase regulation? • If so, how? • What do we do about dying banks?