Communicating Quantitative Information

1. Communicating Quantitative Information More on diagram assignment. Dimension. Everyone dies.  Dying young[er] versus bad breath.Car versus airplane accidents. (Immediate risk. Cumulative risk. Reported incidences.) Homework: Continue regular postings. Complete diagram assignment.

2. Diagram assignment • Read/review recent News forum postings/messages. • Most of the Many eyes, McCandless, Gapminder, etc. are from large data sets, often collected automatically • You may register at Many Eyes, pick a topic, upload and use tools to get visualization, etc. for your presention • You can do things with small or smaller data sets. • data given in postings • data in class stories • ???

3. Volcano • Data / graphic from David McCandless talk. • Compares CO2 (3 numbers) • Comments?

5. Diagram assignment • [Again] you can hand draw, make collage, add to Excel chart or graph. • You can stick to within Excel but use Excel features to label, annotate, decorate. • Do proofread / review. • Be professional.

6. Puzzle • At a certain school of 400, only 250 are taking math. 100 not taking math OR science. Of the students taking math, 40% are taking science. • How many are taking science?

7. Fitting together puzzle • 400 freshmen, 250 taking math

8. More information • 400 freshmen, 250 taking math • 100 taking neither math nor science… so out of the not taking math part… Note: this part is 400-250 is 150

9. … out of not math part • Dark blue represents 100 taking neither 50 taking science! 100 250

10. … next information • Of the ones taking math, 40% are taking science • .40 times 250 is 100 • Divide the freshmen into those taking math and those not • Final answer 100 + 50 taking science

11. Communicating • information • …. message, but also / often: want people to act a certain way • If you want teenagers to stop smoking, bad breath may be stronger dis-incentive than the chance of dying of lung cancer in many years. • (return to math…)

12. Presentation of diagrams • Important to define target audience • Generally not everyone • Here, we'll pretend it isn't me…. • What is level and experience of typical (?) US reader/viewer of diagrams?

13. Data dimension • The data that is worth presenting in graphics form (as opposed to clear text) is generally complex: multi-dimensional. • Dimension: measurement, extent, reach • the degree of manifoldness: time has 1 dimension, space has 3…. • Edward Tufte (and others): • don't give data dimensions it doesn't have. Don't use 3D for bar graphs • read (borrow) his books

14. Minard chart • Napoleon's army into and out of Russia • "….beat by General Snow and General Winter" • chart shows • size of army • travel to and from Moscow • temperature • time • geography • Many articles, alternative presentations, on-line

16. Map: height & depth • Bad example • used Rainbow when it had no meaning • consider people who are color blind…

17. As with 3D bar charts when you only have points, avoid rainbow, when the data is one-dimensional(Note: shades of blue chart better for color-blind visitors.)

18. Sign and dimension • Previous example contrasted height on land with depth of the ocean. • Next chart is problematic: one dimension of shading used for negative and positive values. • is this a problem?

20. Dimension • Identifying dimension is important and may not be obvious. • Challenger disaster: problems were associated with temperature. • Values 'along' a dimension may be discrete or continuous or… forced into discrete (quantized) categories or discrete but many values • weight and height are continuous, but we round (down or up) to a standard unit • registration is done by grouping credits earned

21. Excel: things to avoid AND things to consider • 3D option for bar graphs and pie charts when there isn't the data for the extra dimension is misleading. • Nice formatting trick • Conditional formatting: make the color and/or border and/or font dependent on a formula • Use Format painter to copy

22. Time period Ask • Out of how many? • Over what period of time? • Is period of time meaningful (have the meaning you/the audience thinks it has) • Analysis of costs of Bush tax cuts based on tax cuts expiring • Cost of the Medicare drug benefit was given originally for 10 year period including 2 years when it wasn't in force! • New Health Care Reform will roll out over several years

23. Cars versus planes • Many people believe air travel more dangerous than car travel. • Recent news on improvement in air travel (with regard to accidents, not delays, inspections, etc.) • What do you think?

24. Risks Reported versus publicized versus total number of incidence Claim: virtually all air traffic accidents are publicized (and investigated and, perhaps, re-publicized). Very few car accidents are publicized to any extent. Which cause more fatalities: US: ~40,000 (car) versus ~200 (commercial air travel) http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99845.htm

25. http://hazmat.dot.gov/riskmgmt/riskcompare.htm Good to compute average over time. These are 1994-8. Ask 'out of what?' What is appropriate 'universe'? passengers, miles traveled, (airplane departures) Motor Vehicle 41,616 1 in 6,300 1.7 deaths per 100 million veh. miles Commercial Air Carriers 169 1 in 1,568,000 0.7 deaths per 100 million aircraft miles 0.19 deaths per million aircraft departures

26. New issue: Car accidents & texting • Note: need to check multiple sources. Sites often are: • organizations pushing laws (which I may agree with, but need to check sources) • law firms seeking clients for suits • government agencies—may need interpretation • ? • GREAT example for the diagram assignment

27. Recent study • Article on study: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/sep/24/news/la-heb-distracted-driving-20100924 • Crunching the numbers, they calculated that if text messaging had never been invented, there would have been 1,925 traffic fatalities per year due to distracted driving between 2002 and 2007. But in real life, they rose from 4,611 in 2001 to 5,988 in 2007. • Abstract on study: http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/AJPH.2009.187179v1 • Specifically, the dramatic rise in texting volume since 2005 appeared to be contributing to an alarming rise in distracted driving fatalities.

28. Risk • Immediate • sun exposure may cause sun burn • long-term (ever happen) • sun burns in youth may cause melanomas later • cumulative effects of certain behaviors • constant sun may (also) cause melanomas, may also affect skin • adding up effects http://www.health-alliance.com/Cancer/skin/risk_factors.html

29. Mammogram Screening test • test many women (practically all healthy) • abnormal test leads to more tests, maybe treatment, some making a difference • General remark: 1 in 8 women will get breast cancer

30. New study on mammagrams • New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/health/research/23mammogram.html • Look at multimedia / graphic • New England Journal of Medicine: summary: http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa1000727

31. Possible factors • [Mentioned in article]: treatments have improved. PERHAPS early diagnosis less critical. • Costs associated with biopsies AND surgery for slow-growing cancers more important. • Note: study only evaluated mortality.

32. ALL screening tests • Issues of • false positive (person/case identified as having condition when they don't) • increases when testing large number of well people • false negative (person/case identified as not having condition, when in fact they do) • WILL COME BACK TO TESTING TOPIC

33. Homework • Postings • Complete diagram assignment. • Use imagination • Focus on communication of message • Consider structured picture. Annotations of charts, ? • Start to plan first project.