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Går vi mot en Klimatkatastrof?

Går vi mot en Klimatkatastrof?. Dr. Thomas Hickler Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lunds Universitet www.nateko.lu.se. +8. -8. Animation finns på: http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=7514&l=sv. +2 °C. IPCC 2007: Summary for policy makers: http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf.

michael-burt
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Går vi mot en Klimatkatastrof?

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  1. Går vi mot en Klimatkatastrof? Dr. Thomas Hickler Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lunds Universitet www.nateko.lu.se

  2. +8 -8 Animation finns på: http://www.smhi.se/cmp/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=7514&l=sv

  3. +2°C IPCC 2007: Summary for policy makers: http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

  4. Det här är 4-7 grader! http://www.scotese.com/lastice.htm

  5. Slide modified from Schellnhuber, Copenhagen climate congress 2009 • 80% greenhouse gas emissions 2050 (compared to 1990) Negative Emissions after 2070 ! Russian-Roulette Chance (p = 5/6) of Holding +2°C

  6. IPCC 2007 Ingen klimatskepsis i vetenskapliga tidningar!!

  7. Skogen växer bättre • +10-30% vid 2050? • Längre växtperiod • Mer kvävemineralisering Eriksson et al. 2007. Klimat-och sårbarhetsutredning Bilaga B 18

  8. 1 million ton CO2 Lindroth et al. 2009. Global Change Biology Se även Kurz et al. 2008 in Nature (British Columbia) and PNAS (Kanada)

  9. Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen (1 Oktober 20071) 350.000 hus risk för ras eller havsytan Torsken i Östersjön dör kanske ut Vinnare: skogsbruk (200-310 miljarder kronor), vattenkraft (100-240 miljarder kronor) 30% mindre energi för uppvärmning Kostnaderna till 2100 ~ 1900 miljarder kronor; vinster ~ 1750 miljarder kronor ~ 15 miljarder per år 1www.regeringen.se/sb/d/8704/a/89334 2www.regeringen.se/sb/d/8969

  10. Förändringar i nederbörd Schaphoff et al. Climatic Change 74, 97-122.

  11. IPCC 2007: Special report on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (www.ipcc.ch)

  12. 200 millioner vid 20501 1Stern report 2006: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/Independent_Reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm Om havet stiger med 1m projected Gitay, H. Presentation at http://www.ipcc.ch/present/presentations.htm

  13. 220m thick ice: 3,250 km2 http://images.google.se/imgres?imgurl=http://www.coolantarctica.com/images/larsenB_050302.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%2520fact%2520file/science/global_warming.htm&h=208&w=250&sz=21&hl=sv&start=13&tbnid=_LsASFXRbhTENM:&tbnh=92&tbnw=111&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dice%2BLarsen%2BB%26gbv%3D2%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Dsv%26sa%3DG

  14. Space-borne microwave sensors, such as the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometer, can “see” through clouds and do not require solar illumination. They are also very sensitive to the presence of liquid water within the snowpack and, therefore, can be used for mapping melting snow in Greenland. We used SSM/I data collected between 1979 and 2006 for mapping melting snow over the Greenland ice sheet. We compared our results with ground-based measurements collected by automatic weather stations deployed in Greenland, and with surface temperature data derived from global models and with data from other satellites. By means of satellite data, we were able to identify an extreme melting event at the end of June, 2002 where, for the first time in 28 years, melting occurred at locations in inner Greenland at high altitudes. During the same year, over 80 % of the entire Greenland ice sheet surface experienced at least one day of melting; this corresponds to an area the size of France, Spain and Italy put together. Results also suggest that the area experiencing at least one day of melting has been increasing since 1992 at a rate of 35000 km2 per year (~2 % of the entire Greenland surface), meaning that every year an area equivalent to the state of Maryland would be subject to new melting.

  15. German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) 2006 (http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2006_en.pdf), after Archer 2006

  16. Space-borne microwave sensors, such as the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometer, can “see” through clouds and do not require solar illumination. They are also very sensitive to the presence of liquid water within the snowpack and, therefore, can be used for mapping melting snow in Greenland. We used SSM/I data collected between 1979 and 2006 for mapping melting snow over the Greenland ice sheet. We compared our results with ground-based measurements collected by automatic weather stations deployed in Greenland, and with surface temperature data derived from global models and with data from other satellites. By means of satellite data, we were able to identify an extreme melting event at the end of June, 2002 where, for the first time in 28 years, melting occurred at locations in inner Greenland at high altitudes. During the same year, over 80 % of the entire Greenland ice sheet surface experienced at least one day of melting; this corresponds to an area the size of France, Spain and Italy put together. Results also suggest that the area experiencing at least one day of melting has been increasing since 1992 at a rate of 35000 km2 per year (~2 % of the entire Greenland surface), meaning that every year an area equivalent to the state of Maryland would be subject to new melting.

  17. German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) 2006 (http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2006_en.pdf), after Archer 2006

  18. CO2 CO2

  19. Kindly provided by Julia Pongartz and Christian Reick: Filmen fungerar inte i den här versionen av presentationen. Filmen handlar om hur vi har omvandlat världens yta genom jordbruk sedan år 800, se även Pongartz et al. 2008. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

  20. CO2

  21. Det finns oändlig med energi!! Mer än hälften av Storbrittaniens energi?1 Solceller: 0.23% av världens yta = 18 gånger världens energiförbrukning2 1U.K Department of Trade and Industry 2005, Monbiot 2007 2International Energy Agency (IEA) task VIII 2003 Potential offshore wind generation resource for U.K.: more than 8 times the current demand (Depatment of Trade and Industry, 2005), Monbiot estimates that 5-10% of this should be economically viable, which would cover more than half the elictricity need

  22. Vi subventionerar våran undergång! Subventioner för fossil bränsle: ~ 250 miljarder $3 +2°C: 240-1000 miljarder $ per year5 Om vi inte agerar inom 8 år: 5-20% mindre global BNP4 Nedgång av aktierkurser 2008: ~ 44000 miljarder $7 3UNEP world energy assessment 2004 4Stern rapporten 5 t. ex. UNFCC 2007 7Guardian Weekly, Dec. 2008

  23. Vem är vi? German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) 20007. World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk

  24. Går vi mot en klimatkatastrof? Om vi inte förändrar vårt samhället och levnadssätt från grunden gör vi nog det Men med lite tur är det inte för sent och vi har bara att vinna på det!

  25. Vill ni veta mer? www.smhi.se www.regeringen.se (klimat- och sårbarhetsutredning) www.naturvardsverket.se(nyhetsbrev) www.ipcc.ch (FNs klimatpanel) www.realclimate.org (forskare kommentera nya rön om klimatet) Böcker: En ännu varmare värld (Claes Bernes; super, lätläst bok om klimatförändringar) Heat (George Monbiot; hur vi kan minska våra utsläpp med 90% till 2050 UTAN att gå tillbaka till stenåldern) Global warming - understanding the forecast (David Archer) Plan B 3.0 (Lester R. Brown; a plan for rescuing the planet) Makten över klimatet (Christan Azar) Filmer: En obekväm sanning (Al Gore; seriös granskad på www.realclimate.org)

  26. CO2 CO2

  27. Kindly provided by Julia Pongartz and Christian Reick: Filmen fungerar inte i den här versionen av presentationen. Filmen handlar om hur vi har omvandlat världens yta genom jordbruk sedan år 800, se även Pongartz et al. 2008. Global Biogeochemical Cycles

  28. CO2

  29. Det finns oändlig med energi!! Mer än hälften av Storbrittaniens energi?1 Solceller: 0.23% av världens yta = 18 gånger världens energiförbrukning2 1U.K Department of Trade and Industry 2005, Monbiot 2007 2International Energy Agency (IEA) task VIII 2003 Potential offshore wind generation resource for U.K.: more than 8 times the current demand (Depatment of Trade and Industry, 2005), Monbiot estimates that 5-10% of this should be economically viable, which would cover more than half the elictricity need

  30. Vi subventionerar våran undergång! Subventioner för fossil bränsle: ~ 250 miljarder $3 +2°C: 240-1000 miljarder $ per year5 Om vi inte agerar inom 8 år: 5-20% mindre global BNP4 Nedgång av aktierkurser 2008: ~ 44000 miljarder $7 3UNEP world energy assessment 2004 4Stern rapporten 5 t. ex. UNFCC 2007 7Guardian Weekly, Dec. 2008

  31. Vem är vi? German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) 20007. World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk

  32. Går vi mot en klimatkatastrof? Om vi inte förändrar vårt samhället och levnadssätt från grunden gör vi nog det Men med lite tur är det inte för sent och vi har bara att vinna på det!

  33. Vill ni veta mer? www.smhi.se www.regeringen.se (klimat- och sårbarhetsutredning) www.naturvardsverket.se(nyhetsbrev) www.ipcc.ch (FNs klimatpanel) www.realclimate.org (forskare kommentera nya rön om klimatet) Böcker: En ännu varmare värld (Claes Bernes; super, lätläst bok om klimatförändringar) Heat (George Monbiot; hur vi kan minska våra utsläpp med 90% till 2050 UTAN att gå tillbaka till stenåldern) Global warming - understanding the forecast (David Archer) Plan B 3.0 (Lester R. Brown; a plan for rescuing the planet) Makten över klimatet (Christan Azar) Filmer: En obekväm sanning (Al Gore; seriös granskad på www.realclimate.org)

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