Student A ssignment Analysis for the Lexington Public Schools

1. Student Assignment Analysis for the Lexington Public Schools Public Forum & School Committee Workshop March 12, 2016

2. Presentation Overview • Part I: • Context for Student Assignment • Who has Been Involved? • Goals for Today’s Forum • The District’s Commitments • Meeting Protocol During Scenario Review • Part II: • Review of Enrollment Growth & Scenarios Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

3. Setting the ContextWhy do we need to do this? • Rapid and sustained enrollment growth • 15% or increase of 404 elementary students since 2007-08 • Some areas of town are growing at higher rates than others • Has resulted in uneven pressure on space in schools • We need both to increase our capacity and adjust our use of current space to achieve better parity for schools and all students

4. Who Has Been Involved? • Superintendent and Administration • School Committee • Parent Student Assignment Committee • Elementary Principals • Consultant (AppGeo)

5. Goals for Today’s Public Forum • Share the work completed to date • Consider potential options; no decisions have been made • Gather feedback and input from you • Describe next steps • Timeline for decisions • Where to obtain more information • How to provide additional input or ask additional questions

6. Student Assignment Project Updates • Meetings & Information Gathering • Elementary School Principals • December 1, February 3 & 29 • Student Assignment Committee • Spring 2015, December 16, January 11, February 3 & 29 • School Committee Presentations • February 2, March 8, April 26 • Parent Forums: March 12 & 16 • Ongoing collaboration with Student Assignment Working Group

7. The District’s Commitments • Avoid extremes of over- or under-utilization of school space • No families will be split – siblings will attend the same elementary school • Attempt to minimize impact on existing families • Transportation provided to families in re-assigned areas • No change to district-wide special education programs • Target date for notification to families: no earlier than late May

8. Meeting Protocol for Today • We will present several potential map scenarios • Each scenario will be presented in full • After each scenario, you may approach the micto pose any clarifying questions and/or comments on that specific map • If you have questions at the end, please write them down on the provided index cards or use the link to Google Doc provided on handout.

9. EnrollmentContext for Student Assignment

10. Average Annual School District Growth Rates (Since 2007-2008) ESTABROOK +2.40% +88 students FISKE +2.34% +84 students HASTINGS +0.34% +11 students HARRINGTON +1.25% +41 students BRIDGE +2.12% +81 students BOWMAN +2.48% +100 students Source: LPS Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

11. Current Enrollment As of February 29, 2016 ESTABROOK 527 560 (+33) Projected Enrollment and Expected Student Increase for 2019-20 (50th percentile projection, based on current district boundaries) FISKE 528 564 (+36) HASTINGS 437 440 (+3) HARRINGTON 457 463 (+6) BRIDGE 575 651 (+76) BOWMAN 592 638 (+46) Source: LPS Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

12. Continued Student Growth Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

13. Potential Student Assignment Scenarios

14. Scenario Review • General Comments • Students potentially impacted in scenarios: • Some incoming K without older elementary sibling • Small number of current K (future 1st graders) without older elementary sibling • Incoming K data is based on census responses which is limited in its accuracy/completeness • All 5-year views are based on current elementary students and expected kindergarteners Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

15. “Components” Areas considered for boundary change Criteria for defining components Geographic – contiguous with district boundaries Density of student population Proximity to elementary schools Walkability and ease of transportation *Colored dots represent all existing students (K-5) in each component Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

16. Potential Modest Scenario ESTABROOK Grade 1 +7 Grade K +4 Strategy: Fiske components to Estabrook & Harrington Bridge, Harrington, Bowman components to Hastings Pros: Utilizes space in Hastings Bridge, Bowman and Harrington components picked for distance from school and transportation convenience – no walkability compromised Fiske gets 1st grade relief Allows room for projected growth at Estabrook Cons: Does not make immediate use of all space available at Estabrook May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students FISKE Grade K -5 Grade 1 -10 HASTINGS Grade K +16 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 BRIDGE Grade K -4 BOWMAN Grade K -4 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

17. Potential Modest Scenario in 5 Years ESTABROOK Across Grades +73 FISKE Across Grades -104 Using Current Student Locations and extrapolating Bridge, Bowman and Harrington would get modest relief over 5 years Fiske could potentially see significant relief Hastings could have an additional 145 students Keeping expected growth in mind, Estabrook may become over-crowded HASTINGS Across Grades +145 HARRINGTON Across Grades -33 BOWMAN Across Grades -45 BRIDGE Across Grades -36 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

18. ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +7 Potential Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 1 • Strategy: • Incoming K from Bowman, Bridge & Harrington to Hastings • South of Rte 2 from Bridge and Avalon Lexington Ridge from Bowman • Incoming K from Hastings and incoming K, 1 from Fiske to Estabrook • Pros: • Utilizes some available space • Bowman, Bridge, Fiske get modest relief • Allows for projected growth at Estabrook next year • Cons: • Does not make immediate use of all space available at Estabrook • Potential impact on later assignments for new Hastings • May impact MS feeder pattern or transportation FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 HASTINGS Grade K +16 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 BRIDGE Grade K -6 BOWMAN Grade K -7 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

19. Potential Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 2 ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +19 • Strategy: • Move K and 1 from Hastings to Estabrook to use Estabrook space • Pros: • Utilizes space at Hastings & Estabrook • Bowman and Bridge get modest relief • Fiske gets relief in 1st grade • Cons: • Potential impact on later assignment changes for larger new Hastings • Long term risk of overcrowding at Estabrook • May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 HASTINGS Grade K +16 Grade 1 -12 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 BRIDGE Grade K -6 BOWMAN Grade K -7 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

20. Potential Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 3 ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +19 • Strategy: • Same as Scenario 1, but move K & 1 from all schools to use Estabrook space • Pros: • Use space at Hastings & Estabrook • Bowman and Bridge get modest relief • Fiske gets relief in 1st grade • Cons: • Hastings gains 12 1st graders • Potential impact on later assignments for new Hastings • Long term risk of overcrowding at Estabrook • May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 HASTINGS Grade K +16 Grade 1 +12 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 -4 BRIDGE Grade K -6 Grade 1 -7 BOWMAN Grade K -7 Grade 1 -9 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

21. Potential Larger Scale Scenario in 5 Years ESTABROOK Across Grades +180 FISKE Across Grades -131 Using current student locations and extrapolating Bridge, Bowman and Harrington would potentially get significant relief over 5 years Fiske could potentially see larger relief Hastings could have an additional 104 students Keeping expected growth in mind, Estabrook could be significantly over-crowded HASTINGS Across Grades +104 HARRINGTON Across Grades -33 BRIDGE Across Grades -49 BOWMAN Across Grades -71 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

22. Buffer Zones • A “buffer zone” is defined as a specified area between two or more school assignment areas that permits individual addresses to be assigned to two or more schools. All other assignment area lines are fixed and students living within these boundaries are assigned to one school based on address. • Brookline, Newton & Arlington use buffer zones • Currently, the Lexington School Committee does not have an existing policy on the use of buffer zones Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

23. Fixed District Lines including Specified Buffer Zones Pros • No impact on students already enrolled in schools • Allows siblings to attend the same school • Can be designed to target areas of high density/growth • Allows for adjustments to maximize space use and better achieve parity across schools in response to population shifts Cons • May create uncertainty for new families • Administrative processes are reported to be time consuming • No certainty that a specific buffer zone will adequately address overcrowding over time Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

24. Example of Buffer Zones from Surrounding Communities Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

25. Buffer Strategy Future Hastings/Estabrook Buffer • Strategy: • If a larger scale scenario is adopted then Estabrook will see potential overcrowding in 5 years. To manage growth, a buffer zone could be used between Hastings and Estabrook • Additional buffers could be located in 2 of areas of high density, Katahdin Dr& Avalon Main Campus Dr • Pros: • Provides School District flexibility to manage enrollment and space use over time • Cons: • Buffers are a new concept in Lexington • Administrative challenges Future Hastings/Estabrook Buffer Future Bowman/Bridge Buffer Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

26. Scenario Recap • Modest Approach has less impact on current district boundaries and while it may not meet near term goals of fully utilizing existing space, it anticipates the projected growth at Estabrook. • Larger Scale Approach meets near-term goals of using available space, but will likely create overcrowding at Estabrook in the future. • Buffer Zones, in combination with either of the approaches above, have been shown to be a successful strategy to mitigate overcrowding and support equitable distribution. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

27. Next Steps • Presentation/discussion at public forums • Estabrook - Today! • Clarke - March 16, 7-9PM • Ongoing collaboration with Working Group to review feedback • Student Assignment Committee Meetings – April 7 & 12 • Refined recommendations to School Committee Meeting – April 26 • Earliest decision – end of May Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

28. Have additional feedback or ideas? We would love to hear them at: https://goo.gl/dzNHfl For more information, visit the Lexington Public Schools website http://lps.lexingtonma.org/domain/1191 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

29. Thank you. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

30. Lexington Homes Year Built Note on Data: Data from Lexington Assessors database; querying on YearBuilt field. Not all condo developments have YearBuilt information. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

31. Lexington Properties Last Sale Year Note on Data: Data from Lexington Assessors database; querying on LastSaleDate field. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools