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CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS

CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS. John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University. PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINAR Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Arlington, Virginia 13 April 2005. FUTURE WAR:

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CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS

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  1. CHANGES IN FUTURE CONFLICT AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Senior Fellow Joint Special Operations University PRINCIPLES OF WAR CULMINATING SEMINAR Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Arlington, Virginia 13 April 2005 FUTURE WAR: NLW in 21st Century Warfare St. Martin’s Press, 1999 WINNING THE WAR St. Martin’s Press July 2003 Contact: Email: Nonlethal2@aol.com, (702) 804-5575

  2. THE WORLD IS NOT A SAFER PLACE

  3. THE NATURE OF WAR HAS CHANGED AT THE MOST FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL - DEFINITION THERE ARE WARS ON: POVERTY DRUGS CANCER WE HAVE LOST THE MEANING OF WAR

  4. CURRENT CONFLICT - ASSUMPTIONS • The Global War on Terror (GWOT) lacks specificity • Two models of war – ours is wrong • Competing values prevents us from winning • World War X (WW X) has begun • Clash of civilizations • WW X is religious • We do not understand the threat

  5. TWO MODELS OF WAR PHILOSOPHICAL (JIHAD) V NATION-STATE OURS MAY BE ANACHRONISTIC

  6. THE PROBLEM OF COMPETING VALUES GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR WAR ON DRUGS SPENT $0.5T ROI = 0 WE ARE UNWILLING TO DO WHAT IS NEEDED TO WIN

  7. DICHOTOMIES OF FUTURE CONFLICT Physical Deterrence and Defeat Philosophical Conversion/Subjugation

  8. IS PERCEPTION REALITY??? Fallujah - America's hollow victory 25 Nov 04 Chemical weapons lab found in Fallujah SHUJAAT WE ARE LOSING THIS WAR

  9. WHAT DO THEY SEE Woman Searched Israeli Terrorism Israeli Assassination Boys Torment Woman

  10. TYPES OF FUTURE WARS • Overt War • Enduring Freedom • Iraqi Freedom • Covert War • Afghanistan • Central America • Africa • Outsourced War • Executive Outcomes • International Security Firms

  11. KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE CONFLICT • DEVOLUTION OF NATION-STATE STATUS • Redefining America • POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF THIRD WORLD • Near exponential vs impact of famine and disease • POLITICALIZATION OF EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS • Secular vs Religious Education

  12. KEY ISSUES CONTINUED • GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM INSTABILITY • Global Warming – Changing Weather – Water • PHILOSOPHICAL INCOMPATIBILITIES • Fundamentalism (predominantly Islamic) vs the world • UNSUSTAINABLE LEGAL CONSTRAINTS • Anachronistic – Ponderous - Incongruent

  13. CONUNDRUMS OF CONFLICT • Physical force will not resolve conflict • Philosophical differences irreconcilable • Political correctness reigns • Terrorism treated as street crime • Unwillingness to kill viewed as weakness • What to do with prisoners in war without end • Anachronistic treaties as rule of law • Retroactive consideration/application of law • Responsibility pushed to lowest common denominator • War in realtime on television

  14. WINNING CONUNDRUM SECURITY VS PERSONAL RIGHTS WHEN THREATENED WE WILL CHOOSE SECURITY

  15. NLWS ARE COMING OF AGE BUT THE NAYSAYERS PERSIST

  16. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  17. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -      NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  18. A DECADE OF CONFLICT AFGHANISTAN

  19. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  20. WHAT NEW ARMS RACE??? WORLD NLW $50M/Yr $250M ea $9B WAR $5B/Mo 10 Tanks = all NLWs $4B ea/ $22B Life Cycle Non-Lethal Weapons are 0.012% of US DOD Budget

  21. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  22. NLWS AND TORTURE Monk with torture devices used by Chinese Victoria with instruments of torture TORTURE IS AN ISSUE OF HUMAN INTENT- NOT DEVICES

  23. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  24. NLW DEATHS AND INJURIES Compared to what???? More than 110 deaths of children under 6 17 deaths with 125,000 rounds fired Probability of fatality 0.00014 THE ISSUE IS TRAINING AND SUPERVISION

  25. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  26. NAILING A FOOT TO THE FLOOR MOSCOW THEATER A MATTER OF CHOICE

  27. INCAPACITATING AGENTS WHAT YOU DID READ: - NERVE GAS KILLED RUSSIAN HOSTAGES (UPI) - DEADLY END TO MOSCOW SIEGE SHOWS DANGERS OF INCAPACITATING CHEMICALS (AP) - CONCERN ARISES OVER TYPE OF GAS USED BY MOSCOW (WASH POST) - USE OF GAS RISKS OTHERS FOLLOWING SUIT (SF CHRONICLE) WHAT YOU SHOULD HAVE READ: HUNDREDS SAVED BY USE OF INCAPACITATING AGENT WOULD YOU SET TODAY’S SPEED LIMITS BASED ON AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLGY OF 1900???

  28. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  29. SUPPRESSING DISSENT Watts, CA Nepal Madrid Brazil Mexico City

  30. SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF NON-LETHAL WEAPONS • -        NLWs make it easier to initiate war • -         NLWs will start a new arms race • -         NLWs may be used as instruments of torture • -         NLWs will result in some deaths and serious injuries • -         NLWs used as a precursor and easier to kill opponents • -         NLWs will be used to suppress lawful dissent • -         NLWs do not have sufficient data to support their use

  31. HOW GOOD IS GOOD ENOUGH? Permanent Injury (Eye Trauma) 100 Effectiveness (Skin Pain) Effectiveness Risk of Injury (%) Serious Injury Non-Lethality Index (Startle) 0 Dose

  32. BUT WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO: • HAVE PACEMAKERS? • EXTREME HEART CONDITIONS? • ARE ASTHMATIC? • ARE VERY OLD? • ARE BLIND, DEAF MIDGETS WITH PARKINSON’S ? “Life is tough; it’s tougher when you’re stupid.” John Wayne as SGT John Stryker Sands of Iwo Jima

  33. PERCEPTION THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERING WORLD VIEWS AIN’T IT AWFUL???

  34. THE WORLD AS SEEN BY PHILOSOPHICAL GROUPS

  35. THE WORLD AS IT IS

  36. RECONSIDERATION OF ISSUES • WHAT PROBLEM ARE YOU SOLVING? • COMPLAINTSBASED ON EMOTION VS. FACTS • BLAME TECHNOLOGY FOR HUMAN PROBLEMS • CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS HAVE PEACEFUL PURPOSES • MORE OPTIONS ARE PREFERABLE TO LESS • THE RESULTS ARE IN: NLWS ARE NOT A ROAD TO HELL THE PRIMARY QUESTION SHOULD BE: COMPARED TO WHAT?

  37. “There are two things that are infinite…..the universe and human stupidity. And I’m not sure about the former.”

  38. COMING SOON TO A COMMUNITY NEAR YOU NLWS: NOW MORE THAN EVER

  39. FUTURE BATTLEGROUNDS BERLIN PARIS MOSCOW MADRID PRAGUE AND MANY OTHERS

  40. THE CHALLENGE Kabul 29 Aug 04 7 killed Madrid 3 Mar 05 192 killed Jakarta 9 Sept 04 11 killed Kathmandu 1 Sep 04 2 killed Bali 12 Oct 02 202 killed

  41. NOW IT’S YOUR KIDS IN THE SCHOOL: WHAT WEAPONS DO YOU WANT POLICE TO USE??

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