Presentation Transcript

1. Fed challengeThe current state of the u.s. economy

   A Closer View at Overall Economic Activity A Presentation by Lissette Saca Housing Confidence Store Sales Manufacturing GDP Fed Balance Sheet Labor Market Price Level
2. Housing MBA Purchase Applications -Improvement in number of existing home sales MBA Purchase Application The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. Existing Home Sales Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. New Home Sales New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. Existing Home Sales -Rose 2.7 percent in January, 5.36 million units -Median price fell sharply to $158,000 New Home Sales -New home sales fell 12.6%
3. Confidence Consumer Confidence -Increased from 60.6 to 70.4 State Street Investor Confidence Index -Lack of interest in US equities -Turmoil in the Middle East Consumer Confidence The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. State Street Investor Confidence Index The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey.
4. Store Sales ICSC-Goldman Store Sales This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. Redbook A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. ICSC-Goldman Store Sales -Increase in store sales by 2.6% in last week -Increased Y/Y sales from 2.7% to 3.0% Redbook -Increase in sales from 2.2% to 2.7% -Valentine’s Day and presidents’ day sales
5. Manufacturing Index Increase -Increase due to rise in --shipments --new orders --backlog orders --lead times --employment Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index This survey provides a comprehensive set of indicators of business conditions within the fifth region’s manufacturing sector. The survey provides participants’ knowledge of recent changes in manufacturing activity as well as insights into expected developments in six months.
6. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP -New report to be released tomorrow -Current Q/Q % change SAAR: 3.2% -Forecasted consensus level is 3.4% increase, which lies within the 3.2%-3.6% consensus range Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. GDP represents the total value of the country's production during the period and consists of the purchases of domestically-produced goods and services by individuals, businesses, foreigners and government entities.
7. Fed Balance Sheet Fed Balance Sheet -Total assets W/W change 24.5% Fed Balance Sheet The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Essentially, the balance sheet shows the various Fed programs for injecting liquidity into the economy and how much the Fed has used each for adding or withdrawing reserves.
8. Labor Market Jobless Claims -Improved this past week as new claims levels fell from 410k to 391k, exceeding the expected level of 405k. -The four-week average confirms the improvement, falling a sizable 16,500 to 402,000 for a nearly 30,000 decline from the month-ago level. Jobless Claims New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
9. Labor Market -Unemployment to remain above 9% for most of the year. -While job growth will accelerate, the labor force will grow even more.
10. Price Level Money Supply -M2 W/W change $8.4 Billion Money Supply The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures
11. Price Level EIA Petroleum Status Report -Increase in oil inventories W/W change 0.8M barrels -Reports state as positive EIA Petroleum Status Report The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
12. Works Cited Barron’s Economic Calendar for the week of 2/21/2011 FRED-St. Louis Fed Owens, Andrew. "2011 U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook ." Economic Commentary. UNC-Econ Workbench, 19 Jan. 2011. Web. 24 Feb. 2011. <http://www.unc.edu/~maguilar/EconWorkbench /EconomicOutlook2.pdf>. Zandi, Mark. "U.S. Macro Outlook: A Recipe for Optimism." Dismal Scientist, 9 Feb. 2011. Web. 24 Feb. 2011. <http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp ?cid=197089>.