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Kan Huang 1 , Joshua S. Fu 1,2 , Xinyi Dong 1

Assessment of black carbon in the Arctic: new emission inventory of Russia, model evaluation and implications. Kan Huang 1 , Joshua S. Fu 1,2 , Xinyi Dong 1 1  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

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Kan Huang 1 , Joshua S. Fu 1,2 , Xinyi Dong 1

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  1. Assessment of black carbon in the Arctic: new emission inventory of Russia, model evaluation and implications Kan Huang1, Joshua S. Fu1,2, Xinyi Dong1 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 2 UTK-ORNL Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education, Energy Science and Engineering, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 2013 CMAS Meeting October 29, 2013

  2. Motivations • Arctic black carbon simulation problems: • Large diversity of modeling BC from different models (Shindell et al., 2008) • Strong underestimation of BC in Arctic (Shindell et al., 2008; Koch et al., 2009) • Improper wet scavenging parameterizations (Bourgeois et al., 2011) US NEI Canada NEI Shindell et al., 2008 EMEP

  3. Motivations • On December 17, 2009, in Copenhagen, the US Government committed to international cooperation to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions in and around the Arctic. • Arctic Black Carbon (BC) Initiative: A project funded by U.S. DOE • Activity #1: • Arctic BC Identification: Receptor modeling: Potential Source Contribution • Function(PSCF)(ORNL) • Activity #2: • Establish BC Emissions Inventory of Russia (base year : 2010): Improve estimates of BC emissions in Russia and verification by model simulation(UTK) Tasks:BC emissionsfrom gas flaring, transportation, residential, power plants and Industries • Activity #3: • Demonstration of BC Emissions Reduction Technologies: • Demonstrate the best-available emissions reduction technologies for a subset • of the identified sources in Russia. (ORNL)

  4. I. Gas flaring: a missing BC source Russia possess the largest natural gas reserves of 24% in the world as of 2009. (Dmitry Volkov, 2008) Annual gas flare volume in the global scale and in Russia Also, the top 1 gas flaring country(Elvidge et al., 2009)

  5. Estimation of gas flaring EF and emission in Russia 1.62 g/m3 No field measurement available Only laboratory test(McEwen and Johnson, 2012) Composition of the associated gas in Russia 45 MJ/m3 64.14 MJ/m3 BCflaring = Volume * SootEF Volume : Gas flaring volume of Russia in 2010 was 35.6 BCM (billion cubic meters) The BC emission from Russia’s gas flaring in 2010 is estimated to be 57.6 Gg.

  6. Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission Gas flare areas (red polygon) retrieved from satellite (U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS)) Spatial allocation proxy (contour)nighttime lights product Data source: NOAA NGDC Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission (0.1*0.1 degree) Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk Major gas flaring regions: Yamal-Nenets Khanty-Mansiysk

  7. II. Transportation BC emission Private bus Cars Public bus Public bus 3.5 - 8t < 3.5t > 16t 8 - 16t Trucks Share of different Euro vehicles Trucks

  8. II. Transportation BC emission PM emission factors (g/km) of various vehicle types dependent on different Euro standards (Euro 0 – Euro 3) and driving conditions (urban, intercity and highways) Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008

  9. II. Transportation BC emission Soot emission factors (g/min) during warm-up (cold start) Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008

  10. III. Residential BC emission Residential BC emissions in Russia are based on fuel consumption data and EFs. 1 Total = 57.0 Gg 2 3 National BC -> Federal District level based on residential firewood consumption from Russia’s FSSS (Federal State Statistics Service) District BC -> grid cellpopulation density within each district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset)

  11. IV. Power plants & V. Industrial BC emission BC emissions from power plants and industries in Russia are based on PM (particulate matter) data from Russian official figures and scaling factors (BC/PM2.5 ratio) from the U.S. EPA SPECIATE database. Total = 12.1 Gg National BC -> grid level CARMA (Carbon Monitoring for Action): power plant location, energy capacity and CO2 emission. Total = 12.3 Gg National BC -> Provincial level based on provincial industrial revenues from Russia’s FSSS (Federal State Statistics Service) Provincial BC -> grid cell population density within each district (ORNL’s LandScan dataset)

  12. Sectoral contributions to Russian anthropogenic BC emissions 111 Gg BC emission prepared for ARCTAS Wang et al ., 2011 comparison

  13. Surface BC (or absorption coefficient) observation sites in the Arctic Alert Barrow Birkenes Zeppelin Pallas Tiksi

  14. GEOS-Chem Simulation vs. Observations 25% 40% 100% 40%

  15. Impact from increased BC emission Surface BC from the difference between simulation with new emission and the base case Summer Spring Winter Autumn The impact of the new emission on the increased surface BC concentration could reach over 2 μg/m3 in Russia and over 20 ng/m3 over the Arctic Circle.

  16. Thanks!

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