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Did Brexit need a Peace Poll?

Did Brexit need a Peace Poll?. Two Deeply Divided Societies Northern Ireland and Brexit Britain Colin Irwin University of Liverpool WAPOR Toronto May 19-21, 2019 www.peacepolls.org.

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Did Brexit need a Peace Poll?

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  1. Did Brexit need a Peace Poll? Two Deeply Divided Societies Northern Ireland and Brexit Britain Colin Irwin University of Liverpool WAPOR Toronto May 19-21, 2019 www.peacepolls.org

  2. Table 1Attitudes towards Britain’s relationship with the EU p119Europe – A more ‘informed’ public? The impact of the Brexit debateBritish Social Attitudes 35 (2018)

  3. Peace Polls • General Sir Rupert Smith ‘The Utility of Force’ – War amongst people’s • Not just diplomacy ‘behind closed doors’ • Inter Track and public diplomacy • 9 Peace Polls in Northern Ireland from 1996-2003 on issues of Procedure, Substance and Implementation • ‘Adversarial stakeholders’ agree questions and all aspects of research program • Emphasis on description over hypothesis testing • Every conflict different but same ‘Problems’ and ‘Solutions’ methods used with same scales in… • Public diplomacy • Macedonia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Kosovo, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, UK West and Muslim World, Israel and Palestine, Darfur Sudan and Arab Spring, Cyprus, Syria but not Brexit

  4. Northern Ireland – Rational Choice Approach • Suningdale Agreement 1973 • Downing Street Declaration 1993 – UK/Ireland • Framework Document 1995 – UK/Ireland • Belfast Agreement 1998– Seamus Mallon ‘Suningdale for slow learners’ 25 years later! • St Andrews Agreement 2006 – Policing and other DUP issues • Restoration of NI Assembly 2007 • Elections and suspension 2017 – Language Rights - NI Bill of Rights (Search for Settlement) Northern Ireland Peace Polls • Peace Building and Public Policy 1996 – Parades, Policing, Employment, Education, Housing, Constitution, Bill of Rights, Amnesty • After the Elections April 1997 –Preconditions • The Stormont Talks September 1997 –Preconditions • In Search of a Settlement January 1998 – Problems, Bill of Rights, Policing, Strand I, II, III • A Comprehensive Settlement March/April 1998 – Package and alternates • Implementation of the Belfast Agreement March - 1999 Sinn Fein/PUP • The Mitchell Review October 1999 – ‘Yes’ Parties but only ‘Government and Guns’ • The Future of the Peace Process May 2000 – UUP Council vote (459 No / 503 Yes) • Devolution and the state of the NI Peace Process February 2003 – ‘Acts of Completion’

  5. Belfast Agreement to every home as ‘Endgame’ in rational process

  6. The pro-Agreement parties in general • Referendum can be won • ‘Majority say yes to the search for settlement’, Belfast Telegraph, Tuesday, March 31st, (1998)

  7. The Ulster Unionist Council • Ulster Unionist electorate more moderate than their Council and party executive • ‘Unionism at the Crossroads: What the people say’, Belfast Telegraph, Thursday, May 25th, (2000)

  8. Rejectionist Irish Republicans • United Ireland has little cross community support • ‘Little support for SF agenda’, Belfast Telegraph, Wednesday, April 1st, (1998)

  9. Rejectionist Loyalists • Violence loses votes • 'The PEOPLE'S peace process', Belfast Telegraph, Wednesday, February 21st, (2001)

  10. UK Government • Council of the Isles is a good thing • ‘What hope for Council of the Isles?’, Belfast Telegraph, Wednesday, January 14th, (1998)

  11. Irish Government • Independent cross boarder bodies with executive powers – united Ireland by the ‘back door’ - is unacceptable to Unionists • ‘Feasibility and reality of north-south bodies’, Belfast Telegraph, Tuesday, January 13th, (1998)

  12. US State Department and President • People of Northern Ireland want negotiations for a settlement • C. J. Irwin, ‘YES vote for talks’, Belfast Telegraph, Thursday, September 11th, (1997)

  13. European Community • People of Northern Ireland want the Agreement to work • ‘93% SAY: MAKE THE AGREEMENT WORK’, Belfast Telegraph, Wednesday, March 3rd, (1999)

  14. The Guardian Thursday March 28th

  15. Table 1. Eight options for the political future of Northern Ireland

  16. Percentage preference for Northern Ireland options in 1996

  17. Scales PROBLEMS: People from different communities often hold very different views about the causes of the conflict in Northern Ireland. Please indicate which ones you consider to be ‘Very Significant’ ‘Significant’, ‘Of Some Significance’, ‘Of Little Significance’ or ‘Of No Significance’ at all. SOLUTIONS: For each option you will be asked to indicate which ones you consider to be ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ or ‘Unacceptable’and for the purposes of this poll ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ and ‘Unacceptable’ mean: • ‘Essential’ - You believe this option is a necessary part of a lasting settlement and should be implemented under any circumstances. • ‘Desirable’ - This option is not what you would consider to be ‘Essential’, but you think this option, or something very similar to it, is a good idea and should be put into practice. • ‘Acceptable’ - This option is not what you would consider to be ‘Desirable’, if you were given a choice, but you could certainly ‘live with it’. • ‘Tolerable’ - This option is not what you want. But, as part of a lasting settlement for you would be willing to put up with it. • ‘Unacceptable’ - This option is completely unacceptable under any circumstances. You would not accept it, even as part of a lasting settlement.

  18. Percentage acceptability for Northern Ireland options in 1997

  19. Percentage acceptability for Catholics and Protestants in 1997

  20. Percentage Leave and Remain Brexit options in plot peace poll 2019

  21. Percentage Labourand Conservative Brexit options in plot peace poll 2019

  22. Rank order of Brexit options for ‘Essential’ + ‘Desirable’ + ‘Acceptable’ + ‘Tolerable’

  23. House of Commons Indicative Vote motions and PMs Withdrawal Bill

  24. Northern Ireland and Brexit Peace Poll Politics • Government did not want independent peace polls in Northern Ireland • Northern Ireland Parties rebelled against governments • Funded by Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust (JRCT) • Both Labour and Conservatives supported the Northern Ireland Peace Process • Brexit Conservatives and Labour opposed to a cross party agreement - until today! • Brexit research funded through The UK in a Changing Europe with pro-Government bias – notably work of Sir John Curtice • Independent funding for Leave and Remain lobby groups • So no funding for cross party mediation • Perhaps until now!

  25. Trimble, Bono and Hume, May 19th 1998May, Barnier and Corbyn, May 22nd 2019?

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