Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data: GEMS

1. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data: GEMS Tony Hollingsworth

2. Global Land Ocean Atmosphere MOnitoring from Space (through Data Assimilation): GEMS • GEMS is an Integrated Project to be proposed to the EU in the context of GMES • The goal is to deliver by 2007-2008 a comprehensive operational global monitoring system for the state (dynamics and composition) of the atmosphere, ocean, land. • The system will be built around existing operational weather and ocean systems. • A heavy emphasis will be placed on the use of satellite data.

3. FP_6 Thematic Priority Areas • 1.4 Aeronautics and Space 1.4.2 GMES • Related area • 1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND MODELLING, including global climate change observation systems

4. $25B for New satellite missions in 2001-2007 JASON-1 TERRA ENVISAT ADEOS-II AQUA MSG GPM SSMI/S GOCE COSMIC AURA CRYOSAT CALIPSO METOP CLOUDSAT ADM

5. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data: GEMS GEMS sub-projects • Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, CO • Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES: Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. • Monitor-AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information • Monitoring-SYSTEM-INTEGRATION & RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS:- Integrate the above projects in a pre-operational system, and validate through retrospective analyses

6. Overall Structure of the GEMS Project • There will be an overall coordinator, and a coordinator for each sub-project • The sub-projects will have a common structure, and a common set of functionalities, which facilitates manageability: • Each sub-project will run as a fairly self-contained module. • Integration will be provided through the discipline of a common software environment • With several sub-projects and several functionalities (with some work-sharing) one can accommodate about 25 players (+ ECMWF), each undertaking a substantial task • There will be early deliverables and late deliverables. • In-situ data will mainly be used for validation, not assimilation • GEMS will benefit from involvement of its players in discipline-specific FP6 projects

7. Functionalities of the GEMS sub-Projects • The assimilation sub-projects have a common structure, and common set of functionalities, • Data Acquisition and Management • Radiative Transfer and /or Product Development • Process Modelling (atmos / ocean / chemistry…) • Specification of Surface Sources / Sinks • Data Assimilation • Validation • Most of the sub-projects have a valuable heritage from FP_4 and ongoing FP_5 projects and partnerships.

8. Considerations on Input Products:Data Acquisition and Management • The envisaged resolution of the assimilating model • for the pilot system ~T159 • for the 2008 system ~T319 or higher • The baseline input products will be the space agencies’ ‘meteo products’ • Many of the instruments have pixel sizes ~1km or less, so raw data volumes are huge. For advanced input products we need • producers who can cope with large data volumes. • products which can be up-scaled to the resolution of the assimilating model. • Even if ECMWF limits itself to archiving data products with ~50km resolution, the range of data could mean that data volumes at ECMWF may cause concern.

9. Considerations on Radiative Transfer / Product Development • The baseline products will be the space agencies own ‘meteo products’. However: • The GHG project will use IASI radiances • The RG project will initially use Agency gas profiles. • ECMWF will work on variational use of limb sounding radiances. • Similar considerations apply to the AEROSOL project • The products to be used in the LAND project are not well defined • The products to be used in the OCEAN project will be • Dynamics: as the operational seasonal forecast system • Ocean colour: whatever is available at present • We need an upgrade path from using simple products to more using more advanced methods, benefiting from background information

10. Considerations on Process Modelling -1 • Some Partners will be working in parallel with ECMWF, with their own operational systems, running at their sites • We should study carefully the PRISM approach where land, ocean, chemistry, aerosol, modules are externally coupled to the AGCM, rather than integrated in the AGCM. • The PRISM approach would facilitate clean comparisons. A scientific limitation of PRISM is that one perhaps could not model some aspects of indirect aerosol effects on clouds. • ECMWF’s baseline atmosphere / land / ocean will be IFS / TESSEL / ECMWF’s long term ocean choice.

11. Considerations on Process Modelling -2 • GHG: • We envisage advecting 4 extra species to exploit AIRS in a 4D-Var framework. • RG • MOZART (MPI-Ham) is well validated • MOCAGE (Met-Fr) is flexible and easily coupled to IFS; • AEROSOL: • What modules are available? • How many species? • How many characteristics?

12. Considerations on Specification of Surface Sources / Sinks • This is a difficult area. • RIVM (NL) have made global emission maps for 1990. These can be temporally scaled in simple ways. • Norway has a map of European emissions for ~2 years • Do we need an effort to estimate biomass burning? • Do we need an effort to estimate aerosol formation: over forests? over ocean?

13. Considerations on Data Assimilation • Initially we shall use many different assimilation methods :- • GHG: radiances in atmospheric 4D-Var • RG: initially,univariate 3D-Var for each species / family. • What is the RG upgrade path? • AEROSOL: Univariate 3D-Var?

14. Considerations on Validation • This is an essential area of activity • Carbo-Europe will participate with the Euroflux data • GAW world-stations (Mace head, Hohenpeissenberg…) are interested in GHG, RG and AEROSOL • EARLINET can provide lidar verification for AEROSOL profiles

15. Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES: • Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, CO • Heritage: COCO (FP5) • Instruments: AIRS, SCIAMACHY, IASI • Data Mgt ECMWF • R/T LMD & ECMWF • Modelling UKMO • Sources / Sinks ? • Data Assim. ECMWF & UKMO • Validation CarboEurope, MPI-BG, LSCE, F.U.Amst. U.Tuscia, NUI_G

16. Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES • Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors. • Heritage: SODA (FP4), ASSET(FP5)…. • Instruments: AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES • Data Mgt • R/T • Modelling • Sources / Sinks • Data Assim. • Validation

17. Monitor-AEROSOL: • Model and assimilate global aerosol information • Heritage: - • Instruments: MERIS, MODIS, MISR, SEAWIFS • Data Mgt tbd • R/T “ • Modelling “ • Sources/ Sinks “ • Data Assim. “ • Validation EARLINET

18. Monitoring-SYSTEM-INTEGRATION & RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS • Integrate the above projects in a pre-operational system, and validate through retrospective analyses • Heritage: ERA-15, ERA-40 • System Integration Issues: • Adoption (from the outset) of the PRISM coupling approach offers a direct way forward to a production system • New developments offering operational benefits (e.g. variational limb sounding) could be moved in-line as they mature • What are the

19. END

20. CarboEurope Network

21. GAW Network of world Stations