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The End of Think Tanks (As We Know Them)

The End of Think Tanks (As We Know Them). Is Reut a Think Tank?. Our Big Ideas / ‘Impact’. Development: ISRAEL 15 Vision (06’) Periphery: Regional Leapfrogging (10’) Poverty: Inclusiveness (11’) De-legitimization: Political Firewall (10’) Palestinians: Coordinated Unilateralism (06’)

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The End of Think Tanks (As We Know Them)

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  1. The End of Think Tanks (As We Know Them)

  2. Is Reut a Think Tank?

  3. Our Big Ideas / ‘Impact’ • Development: ISRAEL 15 Vision (06’) • Periphery: Regional Leapfrogging (10’) • Poverty: Inclusiveness (11’) • De-legitimization: Political Firewall (10’) • Palestinians: Coordinated Unilateralism (06’) • National Security: Total Foreign Policy (11’) • Crisis Preparedness: Civil Resilience Network (09’) • Diaspora Relations: Renewed Zionism (10’) • Intl assistance: 1 Billion Within 1 Decade (11’)

  4. Facts and Figures • Average Age: 31 • No PhDs • Collaboration with hundreds of experts • 25 Disciplines (Engineering, Architecture, Computers, Judaism,…) • Leadership backgrounds + social skills required • Foreign Nationals: 1/3 of team • Globalization: 30 countries and across USA • Donors: +100

  5. Outline Part I: Ecosystem Transformed Part II: Impact & Measurement Part III: Next Generation of Think

  6. Scope • Institutions • Aspiration to IMPACT • Research & Analysis • Policy areas • Independent

  7. Part I: Ecosystem Transformed

  8. Example: Brookings & Marshall Plan Step 1: Access Chair of Senate Foreign Relations Committee asks Brookings for “an objective study…” Step 2: Research Brookings produces a 20-page report containing eight recommendations for the new program Step 3: Impact Brookings report becomes work-sheet for Government Plan

  9. Change in the Nature of Change New Paradigm Paradigm ‘relevant’ to reality A few years Paradigm Eroded Relevancy Paradigm Loses Relevancy Generations Rise of Competing Paradigms Time

  10. A World Without Paradigms Relevancy Time

  11. Fundamental Surprises Basic LearningAdaptation Denial+ Situational Learning IncubationSituational Learning Relevancy Gap RelevancyClear research needs

  12. A Revolutionary Age Complexity: More players interacting Decline of Gov: Rise of others Black Swans:Need for flexibility Ideas not Enough: Framing & reframing No experts: Need for new knowledge Pressures to adapt & lead

  13. More Adaptive Problems Adaptive Problem Solution: Requires Learning Problem: Adaptive Responsibility: Broad Technical Problem Solution: Clear Problem: Technical Responsibility: Authority

  14. Fundamental Gaps in Think Tank Model Expertise rare Sellers’ market Experts are cheap buyer’s market Ideologies From idea to policy Pragmatism what works in field Broadcasting  Exposure = Impact Cacophony / Narrowcasting Emphasis on getting heard Research = Impact  Outputs = Impact Research / Output not impact impact mandates leadership Lack of knowledge / info Stables of experts Abundance of knowledge Need to make sense of things / no experts Big Gov solves societal problems Gov focus Gov weak; borders permeated expand focus beyond Gov Previous Mindset Diverging Reality

  15. Example: Macroeconomic Policy Washington Confusion Washington Conesus 10 Macroeconomic Policies 1980-2008 Dominant Mindset No clear success Growth ReportFocus on structuresPragmatic / bottom-up Rodrik, Dani. 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform." Journal of Economic Literature

  16. Part II: Impact & Measurement

  17. Definition of Impact “Significant or lasting change in people’s lives, brought about in a given action or series of actions”

  18. Theory of ChangeComplex Operational TheoryFocused OperationalTheoryComplex Theory of ChangeFocused Impact 101 InstitutionalA technical fix to adap prob.Law; policy; budget; bldg; info Control of outcome / not impact EcosystemAdaptive Res to Adap. Prob. Language; discourse; incentivesNo control over outcome / impact NicheA technical fix to a tech prob.Soup kitchen; New libraryControl of output / outcome. Not impact Integrated approachMultiple tech fixes along a chainHomeless: food, training, job, shelterControl of output / outcome. Not Impact

  19. Understanding Ecosystems Government Business Media Values Priorities Language Patterns Symbols Heroes NGOs Academia Activists Philanthropists

  20. Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Social Impact What to Measure? • What happens • Workshops • Soup kitchen • Training • Construction • Immediate results • People fed • Policy papers • Coalitions • What goes in • Funds • Equipment • Expertise • Mid-term results • Improved conditions • Change political position • Effects on root causes • Sustained change in metrics • Fundamental change in social norms and attitudes

  21. Input measurement Result measurement Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes SocialImpact “Measuring” impact Influence Knowledge Creation Promoting alternative framework and vision No mission accountability No direct impactOften undue credit

  22. What Do You “Measure"? Presently Desired Policy Ecosystem Publications Language and Discourse Recommendations Structural Changes Media Appearances Incentives & Priorities Access Heroes / Symbols Recognition Patterns of Conduct Something to brag about No direct claim to fame

  23. Next Generation of Think Tanks

  24. From Stables of Hedgehogs to Packs Foxes 'Hedgehogs' have expertise in a defined area, and constantly try and present things as fitting or not fitting into their system of beliefs. (Isaiah Berlin) 'Foxes' evaluate the meaning of things by moving between areas of knowledge, understanding reality as constantly changing. (Isaiah Berlin)

  25. New Role for Think Tanks Ecosystem Ecosystem

  26. New Knowledge: In-Between Disciplines: existing and non-existing Concepts, ideas, ideologies Academics to activists Process more important than brilliance Intuition

  27. Impact: From Research to Leadership ResearchAnswersAccessPolicyExposure VisionQuestionsPartnershipsEcosystemCatalyzing Change

  28. Institutional Reforms Organizational brand Efforts over areas of knowledgeProcess over knowledge From government to non-government New categories of products

  29. Thank You!

  30. Theory of ChangeComplex Operational TheoryFocused OperationalTheoryComplex Theory of ChangeFocused Reut’s Impact Strategy CatalystDirect actions in all sectors through partnerships & coalitions Conceptual FrameworkAlternative mindset and the different response NicheSpecial Projects YouTube Video Campaign Effects TableList of transformations required to affect the eco-system

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