Trends in Industry and Occupational Data Workforce Development Council Nov 2012

1. Trends in Industry and Occupational DataWorkforce Development Council Nov 2012 Mathew Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor Economic & Labor Market Information Chief Labor Market Information online at VTLMI.info

2. Who/What is ‘LMI’? The Economic & Labor Market Information Division ~ housed in the Vermont Department of Labor ~ affectionately referred to as LMI ~ state partner to the federal government = 100% federally funded Purpose: - to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, etc… Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

3. LMI Data Series & the Valued Input from Employers Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Required Current Employment Statistics – monthly panel survey Occupation Employment Study – 3 year managed panel survey of employers; Required Other Studies - Fringe Benefits, Vacancy, Skills Assessment, Industry Focus, etc… OPTIONAL Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

4. Presentation Outline PART I ~ Status of the Vermont Economy • Where we are at in the recovery PART II ~ Occupational Projections 2010-2020 • National Industry Data & Trends • Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

5. PART I • Status of the Vermont Economy • Where we are at in the recovery

6. National Recession Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

7. Last 3 Vermont Recessions Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

8. Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

9. Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January 2011 • Vermont doesn’t run as ‘hot’ during up-swings • Private sector leading the recovery *Total Gov’t includes public education Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

10. Job Growth During the ‘Recovery’ Since January 2011 VT showing strong growth in two sectors: • Professional, Scientific & Technical --- still room to grow vs. national concentration of total private (6% in VT vs. 7% in US) • Private Education ~ riding a winning horse; to what end? Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

11. Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT • Approximately 3,000 establishments in VT classified in NAICS 541 • over 13,500 employment opportunities • Average wage across the sector of nearly $65k Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

12. Professional, Scientific, & Technical SERVICES in VT Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

13. More on NAICS 541 Specialized Design includes: - Interior, Industrial, and Graphic Design Services Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting includes: - Admin, General Management, HR, Marketing, Logistics, Environmental Consulting Services Scientific Research & Development includes: - Biotechnology, Engineering, Life Science, Social Science & Humanities R&D services Advertising & Public Relations also includes: - Media Buying and Advertising Material Distribution Other includes: - Marketing Research, Public Opinion Polling, Photographic, Veterinary Services Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

14. Part I: Conclusions • The economic recovery = slow and uneven • Potential Risks: US ‘fiscal cliff’, international financial crises, threats of military conflicts, etc. • Vermont is faring better than the nation • Professional, Scientific & Technical Services work can be done from anywhere in the world • Requires talented workforceand adequate technology/infrastructure Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

15. PART II • Occupational Projections 2010-2020 • National Industry Data & Trends • Vermont Occupational Projections by Education

16. Education and training and projections • For both career exploration and policy decisions, users want to know: • What is the demand for workers with a college degree (or some other level of education)? • What training or experience is needed in different careers, in addition to formal education?

17. New education and training classification • Three categories of information for each occupation: • Typical education needed for entry • Work experience in a related occupation • Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation • The categories make up a typical path to entry and competency

18. Educational attainment by occupation

19. Education and training classification

20. National: % change in employment by typical entry-level education category Average, all occupations = 14.3% Percent change, projected 2010-20

21. National: % change in employment by typical on-the-job training category Percent change, projected 2010-20 Average, all occupations = 14.3%

22. National: % growth in employment for selected paths Percent change, projected 2010-20 Education, work experience, OJT

23. Service providing Goods producing National: % Change in Employment by Industry: 2006-10 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= -1.2% 2006 Data: BLS Current Employment Statistics

24. Service providing Goods producing National Employment by Industry: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

25. Service providing Goods producing National % Change in Employment by Industry: Projected 2010-20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%

26. National Employment Change by Industry Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 (Continued on next slide)

27. National Employment Change by Industry (Continued) Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20

28. Nat’l Construction Wage & Salary Employment Millions of jobs

29. Nat’l Manufacturing Wage & Salary Employment Millions of jobs

30. Vermont’s 2010-2020Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

31. Vermont’s 2010-2020Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

32. Vermont’s 2010-2020Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

33. Vermont’s 2010-2020Occupational Projections Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

34. Part II: National Conclusions Industries Leading the Way: - Health Care - Personal Care & Social Assistance - Professional & Business Services - Construction - not regaining all it has lost By education category – fastest growth found in Master’s degree (21.7%) By training category – fastest growth found in apprenticeship is the typical on the job training (22.5%) Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

35. Part II: Nat’l Conclusions (cont.) • In 4 out of 5 occupations, openings due to replacement needs exceed the number due to growth. Replacement needs are expected in every occupation, even in those that are declining. • Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the fastest employment growth, 17 typically need some type of postsecondary education for entry into the occupation. • More than two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations that typically do not need postsecondary education for entry Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

36. Part II: Conclusions (cont.) National trends – low population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates - “Baby-boomers” now entirely in the “55+” age cohort; increasing group’s share of labor force from ~20% to ~25% in 2020 Vermont – no population growth – decreasing labor force participation rates (still higher than national average) Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

37. Presentation Summary • There are lots of opportunities in the Vermont economy for workers of all educational backgrounds • However, more skills leads to more wages • VTLMI.info has a wealth of free information • More information leads to better decisions Labor Market Information online @ vtlmi.info

38. Questions?Thank you! Contact Information: Mathew J. Barewicz Vermont Department of Labor 5 Green Mountain Dr. Montpelier, VT 05601-0488 Phone- (802)-828-4153 Mathew.Barewicz@state.vt.us Website: www.vtlmi.info