M. Schaap and many others

1. An overview of European initiatives relevant for FAIRMODE M. Schaap and many others

2. Goal: • To provide an overview of relevant ongoing initiatives in Europe relevant to FAIRMODE • Focus on: • Objectives • Modelling activities FAIRMODE

3. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EURODELTA Time scales of some relevant projects and activities COST 728 & 732 GEMS PROMOTE-2 COST ES0602 (Chemical Weather) MEGAPOLI, CityZen MACC PASODOBLE AQMEII FAIRMODE

4. MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate • implementing the core monitoring and forecasting services FAIRMODE

5. Model The underlying computational approach Input data Weather, constituents, emissions, land and ocean conditions FAIRMODE

6. Model Data assimilation The underlying computational approach Input data FAIRMODE

7. Model E Model D Model C Model B Model A Model Data assimilation Model G The underlying computational approach Input data Forecast FAIRMODE

8. Overall service structure (from MACC viewpoint) Feedback FAIRMODE

9. PASODOBLE - Goals Develop and demonstrate user-driven downstream information services for the regional and local air quality sector by combining space-based data, in-situ data and models in 4 service lines: • Health community supportfor people at risk, hospitals, pharmacies and doctors • Public forecasting and assessment supportfor agencies, tourist industries and sport event organizers • Compliance monitoring supporton particulate matter for regional environmental agencies • Local forecast model evaluation supportfor local authorities and city bodies FAIRMODE

10. 1 2 PASODOBLE - Concept User Needs GMES Core Services Other Inputs Interface to Core and Inputs Air Quality Downstream Service Cluster Quality Management Marketing and Business Planning Health Community Support Compliance Monitoring Sup. Public Forecasting Support Local Model Evaluation Sup. Interface to Users User feedback cycle Marketing cycle Users and Market FAIRMODE

11. PASODOBLE users* Map of Europe showing the regions and cities covered by PASODOBLE Downstream Services for Committed Users *at time of proposal preperation FAIRMODE

12. COST 0602 • a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi-model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting • Provide an easy interface to a wide variety of web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe • By selecting a point on the map, he or she will automatically receive • a list of the AQ modelling systems • the domain, the research group of each model • a description of the service etc. A screenshot of the portal for web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe. http://www.chemicalweather.eu/Domains Under construction! FAIRMODE 12

13. Figure: Illustration of some of the services available on the front page of the portal. http://www. chemicalweather.eu/Domains Please add your own forecasting service ! An overview paper on current chemical weather forecast systems is almost finished FAIRMODE

14. Connections between Megacities, Air Quality and Climate • Some links shown have already been considered by previous studies and are reasonably well-understood. • However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. • Understanding and quantifying these missing links will be the focus of MEGAPOLI. FAIRMODE

15. https://wiki.met.no/cityzen/start The CityZen project (2008-2011) FAIRMODE • Effect of Megacities on different spatial scales • model studies and analyses of long-term observations • development of emission scenarios • Climate-chemistry coupling in and around Megacities • Coordinated by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, involving 16 partners from 11 countries and 3 continents

16. Objectives of Cityzen & Megapoli • Quantify and understand current air pollution in and around selected megacities • Development of tools to estimate interactions between different spatial scales • Estimate how megacities influence air quality and climate, locally and globally • Estimate how megacities are responding to climate change • Estimate the impact of future emission change, including mitigation options • Provide technical underpinning of policy work FAIRMODE

17. Domain of selected 1st level Megacities Total Road Transport NRW – Rhine-Ruhr Rhine-Ruhr London Paris Po Valley Emissions European scale top-down Urban scale bottom up • Local Megacity Emission inventories for Paris (Airparif), London, Rhine-Ruhr, and Po Valley as well as global ( EGDAR team, JRC) FAIRMODE

18. St-Petersburg London Moscow Rhine-Ruhr Paris Po Valley Istanbul FAIRMODE

19. London Nord Rhein Westphalia Paris Istanbul Po Valley Athens FAIRMODE

20. EU transport policy Cities policy Transphorm Emission models: -road traffic; -shipping; -aviation; EU measures Cities measures Transport Integrated Assessment Cycle • Dispersion models • regional; • point; • line; • street canyon; ESCAPE Cohort studies Exposure model FAIRMODE

21. EURODELTA • To benchmark the EMEP model • Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ? • What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ? • What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ? • Is a sectoral approach beneficial within IAM? FAIRMODE

22. The JRC EURODELTA tool FAIRMODE

23. Different models generally agree in their responses to emission reductions – absolute variability up to 50% Germany, after 2020 All models agree better in a relative sense than in an absolute sense: SO4 NO3 NH4 FAIRMODE

24. COST 728 • to develop advanced conceptual and computational frameworks to enhance significantly European capabilities in mesoscale meteorological modelling for air pollution and dispersion applications Case study Stern et al. (2008) Ongoing activities include an investigation to the differences in meteorological input on the model results by using independent meteorological tower observations FAIRMODE

25. FAIRMODE

26. COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models Problem statement: • The main objective of the Action was to improve and assure the quality of micro-scale meteorological models that are applied for predicting flow and transport processes in urban or industrial environments. FAIRMODE

27. COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models • Harmonised European views in the field of model evaluation were established. • Background and Justification Document to Support the Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol • Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol Document • Best Practice Guideline for the CFD simulation of Flows in the Urban Environment • Model Evaluation Case Studies: Approach and Results FAIRMODE

28. Strengths: Unique opportunity to combine knowledge available in the COST Countries Action was sufficiently focused Subject of the Action was timely Discussions within the group were controversial but fair The group was able to reach consensus Weaknesses: National delegates not always qualified/motivated/leading the field Additional support from EU / ESF had been requested but was refused. The workload for the active participants was finally overwhelming COST 732 Strengths and weaknesses FAIRMODE

29. Air Quality Model International Initiative (AQMEII) • Necessity was recognized to bridge between North American and European regional scale model evaluation communities & practices • 2008 first workshop organized at TNO and the constitution of the Steering Committee • May 2009: JRC-IES organizes the Stresa workshop. In depth analysis of the four evaluation streams defined by AQMEII and starting the definition of the a the first activity involving the two communities • Activity supported by JRC-IES, US-EPA, Environment Canada, DG-RTD and DG-ENV FAIRMODE

30. Operational Evaluation How do the model predicted concentrations compare to observed concentration data? What are the overall temporal or spatial prediction errors or biases? Model-predicted concentration and deposition Model Inputs: meteorology and emissions Chemical transformation: gas, aerosol, clouds Transport: advection and diffusion Removal: dry and wet deposition Are we getting the right answers? Can we capture the observed changes in air quality? Dynamic Evaluation Can the model capture changes related to meteorological events or variations? Can the model capture changes related to emission reductions? Can we identify needed improvements for modeled processes or inputs? Are we getting the rightanswers for the right (or wrong) reasons? Diagnostic Evaluation Are model errors or biases caused by model inputs or by modeled processes? Can we identify the specific modeled process(es) responsible? Probabilistic Evaluation What is our confidence in the model-predicted values? How do observed concentrations compare within an uncertainty range of model predictions? What is our confidence in the model predictions? 4 model evaluation types FAIRMODE

31. First phase (2010) : focus operational, diagnostic and probabilistic evaluation Participation is opened: URL: http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu FAIRMODE

32. Overview of AQD applications & scale in on-going projects EURODELTA TRANSPHORM AQMEII COST 602 CITYZEN MEGAPOLI MACC PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI EC4MACS TRANSPHORM EURODELTA CITYZEN PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI TRANSPHORM PASODOBLE MACC COST 602 Chemical Weather FAIRMODE

33. Types of Evaluation Type of Evaluation Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m) Urban/Agglom (dx ~ 1- 5 km) Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km) Operational Routine statistics by one-to-one pairing EURODELTA TRANSPHORM AQMEII CITYZEN COST 602 MEGAPOLI MACC PASODOBLE EC4MACS Diagnostic “process impact – why?” AQMEII EURODELTA CITYZEN COST 728 Dynamic -Response to Δ Meteo MEGAPOLI CITYZEN Emissions EURODELTA MEGAPOLI Probabilistic “Ensembles” AQMEII CITYZEN MACC COST Chemical Weather FAIRMODE EURODELTA

34. Conclusions • There is a large experience on the regional scale, followed by the hotspot scale. • Model evaluation exercises and comparisons on the city scale have attracted less attention • A large experience is present on model evaluation for • Compliance / Assessment • Source Apportionment (Natural components) • Public information, i.e. forecasting • Limited experience is present on model evaluation for • Mitigation & Planning • Many initiatives were not “open” and not continuous, FAIRMODE should be • FAIRMODE can draw from a large pool of expertise FAIRMODE

35. Other relevant projects • FP6-Air4EU: Review of best practices on all scales • Monitoring • Modelling • Data assimilation • CityDelta • EC4MACS • FP6-GEOMON • FP7-ENERGEO • And probably many more … FAIRMODE