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How do we fund our roads? A case of decreasing revenue from electric vehicles

How do we fund our roads? A case of decreasing revenue from electric vehicles. Alan Jenn PhD Candidate Carnegie Mellon University. Running out of money for our transportation infrastructure.

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How do we fund our roads? A case of decreasing revenue from electric vehicles

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  1. How do we fund our roads? A case of decreasing revenue from electric vehicles Alan Jenn PhD Candidate Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Running out of money for our transportation infrastructure Source: Bradley, Bill, Tom Ridge, David Walker. “Road to Recovery: Transforming America’s Transportation”. Leadership Initiative on Transportation Solvency. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 2011. p.17

  3. Where do transportationfunds come from? Image Sources: http://cimg.internetbrands.com/www.carsdirect.com/330x185/564/used-car-dealer-prices-1564.jpghttp://newsbusters.org/sites/default/files/main_photos/2012/February/Gas%20223.jpg http://www.plateshack.com/y2k/Pennsylvania5/pa2013sticker.jpg

  4. Variance of annual fees by state • Arizona • Colorado • Louisiana • Michigan • Minnesota • Wyoming • Arkansas • California • Florida • Hawaii • Idaho • Iowa • Kansas • Maryland • Missouri • Montana • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Oklahoma • Rhode Island • South Dakota • Texas • Virginia • Washington • Alabama • Alaska • Connecticut • Delaware • Georgia • Illinois • Indiana • Kentucky • Maine • Massachusetts • Mississippi • Nebraska • Nevada • North Carolina • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • Tennessee • Utah • Vermont • West Virginia • Wisconsin

  5. No use fees for electric vehicles (EVs) • When EVs operate on battery power, traditional forms of revenue flow is bypassed • Is this a problem for transportation revenues? Image Sources: http://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Nissan_Leaf.jpg http://www.blogcdn.com/www.autoblog.com/media/2011/01/volt-charging-port.jpg

  6. Sales of EVs are small, for now… Figure 1: Historical Sales of Electric Vehicles by Model Figure 2: EIA Forecasts of Electric Vehicle Sales by category

  7. Lifetime fees from a Toyota Camry Figure 3: Spatial breakdown of lifetime fees for Toyota Camry

  8. Lifetime fees from a Chevrolet Volt Figure 4: Spatial breakdown of lifetime fees for Chevrolet Volt

  9. Lifetime fees from a Nissan Leaf Figure 5: Spatial breakdown of lifetime fees for Nissan Leaf

  10. Predicting losses in future revenue

  11. Average distribution of Prius sales over the last decade Figure 6: Percentage of Prius sales versus total sales by state

  12. Difference in distribution of Prius sales versus total sales over the last decade Figure 7: Difference in percentage of Prius sales versus total sales and average percent sales by model, by state

  13. Decrease in funding likely to be several hundred million dollars by 2025 • On a national scale, impact is relatively small but growing • Higher rates of EV adoption will compound existing issues with transportation infrastructure funding deficits • Future planning to address issue is necessary Figure 8: Annual revenue decreases from EVs

  14. Other funding schemes • Annualized fees (likely coupled through registration fees) • Link to initial price of the vehicle • Use fee based on mileage of vehicle

  15. Sensitivity analysis on possible revenue generation plans Figure 9: Cumulative revenue sensitivity to a percent MSRP based registration fee Figure 10: Cumulative revenue sensitivity to a per mile based use fee

  16. Conflicting policies

  17. Conclusions, Future Work • Small (~1% by 2025) but growing problem needs to be addressed • Finding the right solution is tricky and politically difficult • Examine effects of alternative revenue generation policies on total fleet funds • Equity issues?

  18. Acknowledgments Thanks to the Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making for funding and to my advisor InêsAzevedo

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