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Lecture 12 The Behavior of Interest Rates

Lecture 12 The Behavior of Interest Rates. Derivation of Demand Curve. ( F – P ) i = RET e = ——— P Point A: P = $950 ($1000 – $950) i = —————— = .053 = 5.3% $950 B d = 100. Derivation of Demand Curve. Point B: P = $900 ($1000 – $900) i = —————— = .011 = 11.1% $900

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Lecture 12 The Behavior of Interest Rates

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  1. Lecture 12 The Behavior ofInterest Rates

  2. Derivation of Demand Curve (F – P) i = RETe = ——— P Point A: P = $950 ($1000 – $950) i = —————— = .053 = 5.3% $950 Bd = 100

  3. Derivation of Demand Curve Point B: P = $900 ($1000 – $900) i = —————— = .011 = 11.1% $900 Bd = 200 Point C:P = $850 i = 17.6% Bd = 300 Point D:P = $800 i = 25.0% Bd = 400 Point E:P = $750 i = 33.0% Bd = 500 Demand Curve is Bd in Figure 1 which connects points A, B, C, D, E. Has usual downward slope

  4. Supply and Demand Analysis of the Bond Market

  5. Derivation of Supply Curve Point F:P = $750 i = 33.0% Bs = 100 Point G:P = $800 i = 25.0% Bs = 200 Point C:P = $850 i = 17.6% Bs = 300 Point H:P = $900 i = 11.1% Bs = 400 Point I:P = $950 i = 5.3% Bs = 500 Supply Curve is Bs that connects points F, G, C, H, I, and has upward slope Market Equilibrium 1. Occurs when Bd = Bs, at P* = 850, i* = 17.6% 2. When P = $950, i = 5.3%, Bs > Bd (excess supply): PØ to P*, i≠ to i* 3. When P = $750, i = 33.0, Bd > Bs (excess demand): P≠ to P*, iØ to i*

  6. Loanable Funds Terminology 1. Demand for bonds = supply of loanable funds 2. Supply of bonds = demand for loanable funds

  7. Shifts in the Demand Curve

  8. Theory of Asset Demand 1. Wealth A. Economy ≠, wealth ≠, Bd≠, Bd shifts out to right 2. Expected Return A. iØ in future, RETe for long-term bonds ≠, Bd shifts out to right B.peØ, Relative RETe≠, Bd shifts out to right 3. Risk A. Risk of bonds Ø, Bd≠, Bd shifts out to right B. Risk of other assets ≠, Bd≠, Bd shifts out to right 4. Liquidity A. Liquidity of Bonds ≠, Bd≠, Bd shifts out to right B. Liquidity of other assets Ø, Bd≠,Bd shifts out to right

  9. Factors that Shift Demand Curve

  10. Shifts in the Supply Curve 1. Profitability of Investment Opportunities A. Business cycle expansion, investment opportunities ≠, Bs≠, Bs shifts out to right 2. Expected Inflation A.pe≠, Bs≠, Bs shifts out to right 3. Government Activities A. Deficits ≠, Bs≠, Bs shifts out to right

  11. Factors that Shift Supply Curve

  12. Changes in pe: the Fisher Effect If pe≠ 1. Relative RETeØ, Bd shifts in to left 2. Bs≠, Bs shifts out to right 3. PØ, i≠

  13. Evidence on the Fisher Effect in the United States

  14. Business Cycle Expansion 1. Wealth ≠, Bd≠, Bd shifts out to right 2. Investment ≠, Bs≠, Bs shifts right 3. If Bs shifts more than Bd then P≠, iØ

  15. Evidence on Business Cycles and Interest Rates

  16. Response to a Low Savings Rate

  17. Relation of Liquidity PreferenceFramework to Loanable Funds Keynes Major Assumption Two categories of assets in wealth 1. money 2. bonds 1. Thus: Ms + Bs = Wealth 2. Budget Constraint: Bd + Md = Wealth 3. Therefore: Ms + Bs = Bd + Md 4. Subtracting Md and Bs from both sides: Ms – Md = Bd – Bs Money Market Equilibrium 5. Occurs when Md = Ms 6. Then Md – Ms = 0 which implies that Bd – Bs = 0, so that Bd = Bs and bond market is also in equilibrium

  18. 1. Equating supply and demand for bonds as in loanable funds framework is equivalent to equating supply and demand for money as in liquidity preference framework 2. Two frameworks are closely linked, but differ in practice because liquidity preference assumes only two assets, money and bonds, and ignores effects from changes in expected returns on real assets

  19. Liquidity Preference Analysis Derivation of Demand Curve 1. Keynes assumed money has i = 0 2. As i≠, RETe on money Ø (equivalently, opportunity cost of money ≠) fiMdØ 3. Demand curve for money has usual downward slope Derivation of Supply curve 1. Assume that central bank controls Ms and is a fixed amount 2. Ms curve is vertical line Market Equilibrium 1. Occurs when Md = Ms, at i* = 15% 2. If i = 25%, Ms > Md (excess supply): Price of bonds ≠, iØ to i* = 15% 3. If i =5%, Md > Ms (excess demand): Price of bonds ≠, iØ to i* = 15%

  20. Money Market Equilibrium

  21. Rise in Income 1. Income ≠, Md≠, Md shifts out to right 2. Ms unchanged 3 i* rises from i1 to i2

  22. Rise in Price Level 1. Price level ≠, Md≠, Md shifts to right 2. Ms unchanged 3. i* rises from i1 to i2

  23. Rise in Money Supply 1. Ms≠, Ms shifts out to right 2. Md unchanged 3. i* falls from i1 to i2

  24. Factors that Shift MoneyDemand and Supply Curves

  25. Money and Interest Rates Effects of money on interest rates 1. Liquidity Effect Ms≠, Ms shifts right, iØ 2. Income Effect Ms≠, Income ≠, Md≠, Md shifts right, i≠ 3. Price Level Effect Ms≠, Price level ≠, Md≠, Md shifts right, i≠ 4. Expected Inflation Effect Ms≠, pe≠, BdØ, Bs≠, Fisher effect, i≠ Effect of higher rate of money growth on interest rates is ambiguous 1. Because income, price level and expected inflation effects work in opposite direction of liquidity effect

  26. Does Higher Money Growth Lower Interest Rates?

  27. Evidence on Money Growth and Interest Rates

  28. Supply and Demand in Gold Market Deriving Demand Curve P+1 – Pt RETe = —————= g Pt 1. P+1 is held constant 2. PtØ, g≠, RETe≠fiGd≠ 3. Demand curve is downward sloping Deriving Supply Curve 1. Pt≠, more production, Gs≠ 2. Supply curve is upward sloping Market Equilibrium 1. Gd = Gs 2. If Pt > P* = P1, Gs > Gd, PtØ to P* 3.. If Pt < P* = P1, Gs < Gd, Pt≠ to P*

  29. Changes in Equilibrium Factors that Shift Demand Curve for Gold 1. Wealth 2. Expected return on gold relative to alternative assets 3. Riskiness of gold relative to alternative assets 4. Liquidity of gold relative to alternative assets Factors that Shift Supply Curve for Gold 1. Technology of mining 2. Government sales of gold

  30. Response of Gold Market to a Change in pe [Figure A-1 here] If pe≠ 1. pe≠, P+1≠; at given Pt, g≠fiGd≠fiGd shifts right 2. Go to point 2; Pt≠ 3. Price of Gold positively related to pe 4. Gold price is barometer of p-pressure

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