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Seasonal Climate Outlook JJA 2017 from North Eurasian Climate Center

Learn about the forecast technology at NEACC and the Semi-Lagrangian 28-level atmospheric prognostic global model. Explore new products and activities to improve forecast accuracy.

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Seasonal Climate Outlook JJA 2017 from North Eurasian Climate Center

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  1. Северо-Евразийский Климатический Центр Seasonal outlook for JJA 2017 fromNorth Eurasian Climate CenterValentina KhanTHIRTEEN SESSION OF THE FORUM ON REGIONAL CLIMATE MONITORING, ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION FOR ASIA, APRIL 24-26, 2017, BEIJING, CHINA

  2. Forecast technology at NEACC

  3. THE FORECAST MODELS DISCRIPTION The Semi-Lagrangian 28-level atmospheric prognostic global model (SL-AV)developed at the Hydrometeorological centre of Russia and the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences is in active operational use. The model has a spatial resolution of1.125 lat x 1.40625 lon. Source of atmospheric initial conditions are NCEP Reanalysis 2 (hindcast) / HMC data assimilation system (forecast). Ensemble size for the hindcasts is 10. Ensemble size for the forecast is 20. The forecast ensemble is configured by the original and perturbed (breeding of fast growing modes) analysis fields from the date 2 days prior to current month. Source of ocean initial conditions is Reynolds-Smith OI. SSTs are taken 3 days before the forecast period. The model of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO)- Т42L14. Ensemble size for the forecast is 10. The forecast ensemble is configured by the original and perturbed analysis fields of the Hydrometeorological centre of Russia. SSTs are taken from the inertial forecasts. Activities to improve forecast technology - Implementing CHFP and S2S output standards. - New snow albedo parameterization in SL-AV, cloudiness retuning. - Moving from NCEP2 to ERA Interim data for hindcasts. - More accurate SW and LW radiation parameterization. - Increased horizontal resolution (0.72°x0.9° lat-lon)

  4. NEW PRODUCTS:Sub-seasonal forecast technology Regime of issuance of forecasts d0-63: Onceaweek, 20 membersensembleinitializedon 00Z everyWednesdayforcedpypersisted SST anomalies (meanfor 2 weeks) from NCEP (Reynolds SST OI v2). Perturbationfromabreedingcycle. Re-forecastsuitewith 10 membersspanning 30 years (1981-2010) runinreal-time. Skill scores of sub seasonal forecasts ELEMENT trsf EUROPE (10-60, 35 - 70) RO Q MSE MSSS AC RMS ROC_BN ROC_NO ROC_AN ROC_AG week1_HMC 0.79 2.40 8.52 -0.15 0.58 2.92 0.83 0.62 0.73 0.73 week1_MGO 0.78 0.79 3.71 0.50 0.71 1.93 0.60 0.68 0.74 0.67 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- week2_HMC 0.05 2.68 8.80 -1.66 0.32 2.97 0.53 0.47 0.53 0.51 week2_MGO 0.34 0.65 3.47 -0.05 0.34 1.86 0.73 0.60 0.75 0.69 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- week3_HMC 0.32 4.97 11.85 -0.95 0.28 3.44 0.34 0.49 0.51 0.45 week3_MGO 0.16 1.63 5.83 0.04 0.27 2.41 0.37 0.58 0.61 0.52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- week4_HMC 0.58 4.27 10.76 -0.78 0.41 3.28 0.41 0.48 0.50 0.46 week4_MGO 0.20 1.46 5.97 0.01 0.22 2.44 0.48 0.54 0.54 0.52 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- month1_HMC 0.60 4.84 5.96 -0.82 0.58 2.44 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.49 month1_MGO 0.56 1.18 2.12 0.35 0.60 1.46 0.71 0.61 0.69 0.67 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- month2_HMC 0.51 7.42 8.88 -2.70 0.48 2.98 0.45 0.51 0.45 0.47 month2_MGO 0.46 0.93 1.62 0.33 0.61 1.27 0.62 0.57 0.68 0.62

  5. WMO RA VI WMORA II RCC-Network CLIMATE WATCH ADVISORY TEMPERATURE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL The new forecasts (from 22.03.2017) for the next two weeks show a continuation of the above normal temperature for the Siberia and the Far East. The most significant temperature anomalies (up to 8-9˚C) are expected in the North and East of Siberia, and also in the central regions of Yakutia. WEEKLY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS OF TEMPERATUREANOMALIES (HIDROMETEOROLOGICAL CENTRE OF RUSSIA (SL-AV) and MGO MODEL) The dangerous phenomena are the phenomena of weather which intensity, duration and time of occurrence represent threat of a security of people, as well as they can cause significant damage to branches of economy. The list of the typical dangerous phenomena which are used and specified by the local territorial hydrometeorological services of Russia Federation is located on the web site of the Hydrometeorological centre of Russia: http://meteoinfo.ru/hazards-definitions http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  6. NEACOF The NEACOF has been conducted twice a year at the end of the springtime, in May, (on the base of Internet resources) and at the end of the autumn, in November (physical sessions), with focus on the seasonal prediction for summer and winter respectively. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru/neacc/north-eurasian-climate-outlook-forum (English version) http://seakc.meteoinfo.ru/about-centre/-neacof (Russian version)

  7. WMO RA VI WMORA II RCC-Network DRAFT SESONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK SUMMER 2017 1.Oceanic Forecasts: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) 2.Atmosphere: General circulation 3.Temperature and precipitation: North Eurasia and areas under consideration 4. Verification 5. Consensus statement http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  8. OCEANIC FORECASTS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) OUTLOOK In the Indian Ocean:the most significant SST anomalies (positive and negative) are found in the southern hemisphere. Several centers predict weakl positive SST anomalies in the vicinity of the South East Asia. It can cause the summer monsoon circulation weakening. In the Pacific Ocean:Most of models predictwarmer than normal conditions in the equatorial latitudes. Accoding to the IRI/CPC probabilistic forecast the probabilities for La Nina, neutral and El Nino conditions (using -0.5C and 0.5C thresholds) over the coming JJA season are: 2%, 32% and66 %. According forecasts of CPC, significant positive anomalies of SST are expected in modlatitudes.. Colder than normal conditions are predicted in the high latitudes. It can result in an activation of cyclones in the north of Russian Far East. North Atlantic:The tripole is the principal mode of SST variability in the North Atlantic (see picture). According to the forecasts of WMO, it is characterized by negative anomalies in the central part of the area. There are significant positive SST anomalies in the Gulf Stream and the NEO. Increasing temperature contrasts can lead to an exacerbation of atmospheric fronts and increased cyclonic activity . This means that the zonal transport of air mass is more intensive than it is necessary under the climate. According to the forecasts of most centers the significant positive SST anomalies are expected in the Norwegian and Barents Seas at high latitudes of the North Atlantic. These anomalies are characterized by high stability. Significant positive SST anomalies that persist for a long time may result in a further reduction in the area of ice cover in the Arctic (see below). http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  9. INDICES OCSILLATION FORECASTS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CENTRE OF RUSSIA (SL-AV) East Atlantic (EA), West Atlantic (WA), Eurasian (EU), west Pacific (WP), Pacific-North American (PNA)oscillations (Wallace J. M., Gutzler D.S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. – Mon. Wea. Rev., 1981, vol. 109, pp. 784-812). North Atlantic (NAO), Polac (POL) oscillations (Climate Prediction Centre of USA). http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  10. NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONSUMMER COMPOSITE MAPS Negativephase (NAO< -0.49), H-500 Negativephase (NAO< -0.49), PR Negativephase (NAO< -0.49), T2m anomaly The NAO index is characterized by negative values, which means the positive geopotential anomalies in the Icelandi region and negative in the Azores region. According to forecasts of NAO, negative air temperature anomalies are more likely in the north of Europe, and positive air temperature anomalies are more likely in the south of Europe and in the Middle East in summer. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  11. EURASIANOSCILLATION (EU)COMPOSITE MAPSANOMALY SUMMER Positivephase (EU>0.46), H-500 Positivephase (EU>0.46) Positivephase (EU>0.46), T2m The meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are expected to prevail during the summer over most of Northern Eurasia. Significant positive values ​​of the EU index are associated with positive air temperature anomalies over most of Siberia and below the negative anomalies in the north of Europe. Negative precipitation anomalies are expected in Siberia, positive precipitation anomalies are expected in the north of Europe. http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru

  12. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT National Snow and Ice Data Centre, Boulder, CO Sea-IceextensioninArctic in March 2017.Significantpositive SST anomaliesthatpersistforalongtimeresultedinafurtherreductionintheareaoficecoverintheArctic. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (% from 1981-2010 mean). Planetary frontal zone will tend to be northward and less intensive http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

  13. ANOMALIES OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS HIDROMETCENTRE OF RUSSIA (SL-AV) И MGO May- July 2017 May- July 2017 http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru The forecast is issued on March 2017

  14. THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF AIR TEMPERATURE TOKYO CLIMATE CENTRE APCC The forecast is issued on April 2016 Forecast issued on March 2017 http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/6mon/ps/japcc030703.jsp http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html

  15. PRECIPITATION LC MMELRF-WMO Lead Centre for MME LRF June - August 2017 Composite map • Models: • Montreal • Melbourne Forecast is issued on April 2017 https://www.wmolc.org/

  16. Consensus forecast from empirical models June 2017 July 2017 August 2017

  17. Draft seasonal forecasts over south CIS in JJA 2017 Precipitation B N A/N Air temperature A N B/NN

  18. COMPARISON OF CONSENSUS SEASONAL FORECASTS WITH OBSERVATIONAIR TEMPERATURE DJF 2016-2017 FORECASTED OBSERVED +AO, + NAO, + WP Weak Siberian High, cyclonic activity in the southeast Asia Snow cover was above normal Sea ice extent in the Arctic region was below normal

  19. Climate services to support forestry agency FOREST FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK FOR UPCOMING SUMMER June 2017 July 2017 August 2017

  20. Thank you for attention!

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