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Copenhagen Investment Club Lasse Wester NONI B LIMITED (NBL ) , ” NONI B LIMITED ”

Copenhagen Investment Club Lasse Wester NONI B LIMITED (NBL ) , ” NONI B LIMITED ”. Agenda. Company Overview Macro-Economic position Industry Analysis Competitive Advantage? Operating Performance Valuation Conclusion. # This is not an re- comendation to buy or sell the stock !

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Copenhagen Investment Club Lasse Wester NONI B LIMITED (NBL ) , ” NONI B LIMITED ”

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  1. Copenhagen Investment Club Lasse Wester NONI B LIMITED (NBL), ” NONI B LIMITED”

  2. Agenda Company Overview Macro-Economic position Industry Analysis Competitive Advantage? Operating Performance Valuation Conclusion

  3. # This is not an re-comendationto buyor sell the stock! Note, thatcurrently have noposition in the stock.

  4. Morgan McGuire did an valuation to thiscompany - here is an follow-up! (May 13, 2013) Fundamentals, buy(Long) ConservativeIntristicvalue; AUD 35,58 M Mkt. Cap AUD 22,46 M

  5. Company Overview To save repetition the host will give a 5 min debrief, before everyone presents, on the history of the company, its current scope of operations, and recent newsSince the host will cover most of the company overview this section can be very brief

  6. Macro Economic Position Retail; Link AustralianEconomy

  7. Does the company have a competitive advantage? Simply make the case for whether the company has a sustainable competitive advantage or not (examples of competitive advantages on next page) Note: A company may still be a great BUY even without a competitive advantage. The vast majority of companies do not have any competitive advantage

  8. Valuationspread-sheet Assumtions in valuation; Revenue 3 % Future cost 2.5 % Discount rate 10 % No Terminal value, Not includingcurrentequity, withoutcash-already in company! (2014 Q1 , Cash-position of AUD 15 M)

  9. Sincethen… Sharepricethen 0,7 -> Shareprice0,42 Market Cap AUD 13 M (2014, may)

  10. Operating Performance 2013 FY; 30 June 2013, inventory $13.5 million ( ... reducing the need for end-of-season price reductions and – together with less reliance on promotional discounting – leading to higher average margins. Goodwill writedown 2014 Q1, Q2; Q1; Normal Q2; stagnantion sales – 14 % QTQ keep prices - readjustment of lease agreements (consumer resistant)

  11. Valuation This is the focal point of the presentation Waitand follow, if companycanturn-aroundtherearesignificant buy-oppotunity, as the company is tradingbelowit’scash-position (nodebt), and company did have strongearnings from 2004-08 … seemslike the problem is the companyweak sales and not retailmarketor macro-economicmarket– this is not likely to changeunleashcompanycanredirectits sales or lowerit’scost.

  12. Valuation Lease terminations – write-downs on inventory – expenesesdown to 2 % per year (and down 5 % in 2015 and onwards…) Revenuedown to 2.5 % per year. Net profit willreach 2006 and 2007 level, but low margins as the companyrevenuewillbe 1,5*times higher

  13. Discussion 1) Workingcapital 2) Discount rate – 10 % to high for turn-over? 3) Write-downs rest of 2014?

  14. Conclusion Stay put valuation

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