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Regional Haze Modeling & Reasonable Progress

Regional Haze Modeling & Reasonable Progress. Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting July 11-12, 2006. Modeling Forum Activities. All work handled by Regional Modeling Center University of California Riverside ENVIRON Carolina Environmental Program

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Regional Haze Modeling & Reasonable Progress

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  1. Regional Haze Modeling & Reasonable Progress Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting July 11-12, 2006

  2. Modeling Forum Activities • All work handled by Regional Modeling Center • University of California Riverside • ENVIRON • Carolina Environmental Program • Have instituted management tools during 2004-05 • Increased monthly conference call and reporting frequency • Detailed periodic reports (2004 RMC annual, 2002 Model Performance in 2005, 2006 report due in 10-11/2006) • Modeling simulation specification sheets & coordinator (Gerry Mansell)

  3. Modeling Forum Activities • 2006 objectives • Help states get past BART modeling hurdle • Finish regional modeling for 12/2007 haze plans • Document and archive model results • RMC Project has been ongoing since 2000-01 • Need for/form of a future RMC?

  4. Completed Tasks – 2005 through 6/2006 • Completed several modeling simulations • Base02a, base02b – actual 2002 emissions • Plan02a, Plan02b, Plan02c – actual 2002 emissions, except for Fire which used 2000-04 “average/representative” data • Base18a, Base18b – projected growth and control of point/area/all mobile emissions, held fire, dust, and commercial marine emissions constant to Plan02… values • Emissions processing – all SSJF, EF, FEJF, DEJF, TDDWG EIs to date are included • 1999 Mexico EI now usable in regional model • Fire sensitivity modeling project for FEJF – well underway, complete in 3 months • CAMx PSAT – source apportionment model benchmarking and emissions processing

  5. 2006 Ongoing/Pending Tasks • BART modeling support • Get everyone on a timeline • 36km met data to states handling CalPuff on their own, if desired • BART modeling protocol & CalPuff runs for AK, AZ, NM, NV, SD, & UT • Others doing it themselves • Then, in 2007, back to lots of regional modeling • BART impacts across the region • Sensitivity and control strategy runs • Final runs for Technical Support System & planning support • Documentation • 2006 report in October or November • Archive data and results • Ongoing technical support and technology transfer

  6. Regional Modeling - Future Needs • Archive modeling results and data after 2006 • Provide tech support and data transfer • On-going funding? • For maintaining data • For limited staff support, data transfers, and question-answering • Where and other questions not discussed in any detail to date

  7. Regional Haze Implementation Questions • Need regional modeling after 2006? • Probably, but not to the scale of the present RMC team • Should the Forum work to improve modeling tools and techniques after 2006, and when? • When should the Forum start gearing up for the next round of SIP review and update? • Policy support approach to defining the scope, scale, and questions to be answered by each simulation be implemented • These decisions should be coordinated by an oversight group of key technical and planning/policy representatives across the WRAP region. • This new or existing group might include and/or consolidate members from the TOC, the AoH Workgroup, the IWG, and draw upon the expertise of each individual Forum or Workgroup as needed. • The Modeling Forum specifically proposes that they not decide “what to model”, instead focusing on addressing the strategic goals listed above.

  8. Reasonable Progress Technical Support • TSS Web Site: • http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/Default.aspx?code=2 • Regional Haze Planning Support: • http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/Planning/RHSupport.aspx • Weight-of-Evidence Checklist (draft): • http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/tools/WoEchecklist.aspx

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