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Canada Rural Economy Research Lab 3D31 Agriculture Building University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Phone: (3

Saskatchewan Institute of Public Policy: A Public Forum. Growing Saskatchewan in an Urban Age by Murray Fulton, Mark Partridge, and Rose Olfert Department of Agricultural Economics January 17, 2006 Saskatoon, SK .

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Canada Rural Economy Research Lab 3D31 Agriculture Building University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Phone: (3

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  1. Saskatchewan Institute of Public Policy: A Public Forum Growing Saskatchewan in an Urban Age by Murray Fulton, Mark Partridge, and Rose Olfert Department of Agricultural Economics January 17, 2006 Saskatoon, SK Saskatchewan Institute of Public PolicyUniversity of Regina, College Ave. CampusGallery Building, 2nd Floor Regina, SK S4S 0A2General Inquiries: (306) 585-5777 Media Inquiries: (306) 585-5863 Fax: (306) 585-5780 www.uregina.ca/sipp/ Canada Rural Economy Research Lab3D31 Agriculture BuildingUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoon, Saskatchewan Phone: (306) 966-4015 Fax: (306) 966-1345 www.crerl.usask.ca

  2. Cities are Canada’s Engine of Growth • Toronto Mayor Miller is correct! • Canada is distinctive for its urbanization • Line vs. rectangle • Large U.S. cities are less critical • Oklahoma City vs. Calgary in importance

  3. Canada’s 9 urban centres of 500,000 have a critical mass (engine of growth). • Canada needs more engines of growth not a bigger Toronto (sorry Mayor Miller)

  4. Western Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Saskatoon is one “contender” Engine of Growth. Source: Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (www.crerl.usask.ca)

  5. Eastern Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Halifax is one “contender” Engine of Growth. Source: Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (www.crerl.usask.ca)

  6. Plains States Engines of Growth Source: Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (www.crerl.usask.ca)

  7. Saskatchewan vs. Alberta • Alberta took off after oil was discovered! • Globe and Mail: Alberta prosperity threatens the confederation • Answer no! Only after Calgary and Edmonton achieved critical mass. • Witness AB’s fast population growth in late 1990s at depth of oil prices. • Unlike the Wyoming story where Denver/Colorado captured the growth

  8. AB always more urbanized AB takes off c. 1968 Leduc AB oil discovery 1947 AB was always more urbanized. In 1931, 16.69% of AB’s population lived in Edmonton or Calgary, while only 6.54% of SK’s population lived in Regina or Saskatoon.

  9. Calgary and Edmonton achieve critical mass (1966-1971) * Note, CMA data is not available for Regina and Saskatoon until 1966, for years prior to this date, city populations are used Source: Statistics Canada

  10. Why are cities key? • Increase productivity • Backward/forward links • Thick labour pools and input markets • Knowledge spillovers and concentrations of knowledge (clusters) • They benefit smaller cities and rural communities hundreds of kms away.

  11. Urban Amenities (under-rated) • Shopping and cultural venues • Sporting venues • Vibrant atmosphere/diversity • Attracts Creative Class (R. Florida) • Most important young adults favour cities • Circular causation spurs even more urban growth.

  12. Rural & Small City Advantages • Less congestion. • 33 million in Toronto would lead to a long commute • Lower labour and land costs • Rural amenities including less crime and green spaces • In Canada, urban advantages are winning! • Especially the Mega Cities

  13. Census Metropolitan Growth Rates 1986-2001, Saskatchewan and Canada

  14. Population Growth Rates in SK and Canada, Total, Rural, CAs and CMAs, 1990s

  15. Whither Saskatchewan? • Can Saskatchewan compete? • Both Regina and Saskatoon will not be engines. • Which one could gain critical mass? • Saskatoon bigger & growing faster. • Regina is the capital • Who has a greater concentration of young knowledge workers? • Who has more cultural amenities?

  16. And What About Rural? • Rural areas have not fared well in terms of population • Productivity improvements in Primary sectors labour-saving • New sources of employment not sufficient to offset declines • Canada, rural growth, heavily concentrated in ‘metro-adjacent’

  17. Population Growth Rates in SK and Canada, Total, Rural, CAs and CMAs, 1990s

  18. Rural is not homogeneous: • ’unorganized’ space, towns, villages; • agriculture, mining, forestry • Sources of viability and growth will vary • Urban growth is a source of economic activity and growth for rural areas with access

  19. Research results strongly show proximity to Cities matters • Urban population as a market for rural economic activity • Rural amenities, recreation • Nearby rural locations attractive for firms • Lower land and labour cost

  20. Nearby rural locations attractive for population • Bedroom communities—rural lifestyle • Commuting to urban centres common 100 kms (one hour’s drive) • Amenities in bedroom communities important

  21. Commuting To Saskatoon, 2001 Source: Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (www.crerl.usask.ca)

  22. Source: The Ebb and Flow of Rural Growth: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation Presentation for the Department of Rural Development, Regina, Saskatchewan June 9, 2005 by Mark Partridge

  23. 86% of Saskatchewan’s population is within the 100km rings • 73% of the rural population is within the rings • For the majority of the rural population urban growth may be their best rural development strategy

  24. Policy Recommendations—SK • Urban centres best sources of growth, rural and urban—build on strengths. • Competitive tax rates will be an asset. • Better transportation access to the U.S. market could make a difference. • Enhanced amenities important for population retention • Facilitative Governance innovations • Wise investment of the windfall resource revenues for long term pay-offs.

  25. Saskatchewan Institute for Public Policy Role of myth in Saskatchewan’s history and future January 2006

  26. Myths matter • “A way of making sense in a senseless world” – May • “Philosophical meaning to the facts of ordinary life” – Schorer. • Give inspiration • Pursuit of myth: -- Integral role in development of Saskatchewan’s political economy -- Essential ingredient of economic and political debate

  27. The Saskatchewan myth • Deeply rooted in National Policy • Saskatchewan as a promised land • Evolved and shaped by major periods in province’s history: -- First Nations/Treaty process -- Rapid settlement -- “Dirty Thirties” -- Social Gospel -- Medicare -- Economic underachievement

  28. The Early Days • Myth of Saskatchewan as “promised land” was imperative of nationhood • Conflicting views: Palliser/Macoun • Free land -- flood of immigration • Owram: “… as with most utopias, this paradise was unattainable; inevitably those who believed it were disillusioned.”

  29. Early days (cont) • Collectivist grassroots culture to offset external control and attain myth of promised land • Shaped political debate and public policy outcomes • SGGA, Co-Op Elevator Co., Wheat Pool; Non-Partisan League, Progressives.

  30. Early days (cont) • Promised land = massive immigration • Social and economic foundations established • Widely dispersed family farm economy • Overcome challenges by putting power in hands of farmers • Reconciling myth with reality

  31. The 1930s: A New Myth • Folly of promised land myth becomes evident • Social gospel provides inspiration to refashion myth • Religion an undercurrent to moralism of agrarian activism • New economic and social order to achieve the “New Jerusalem”

  32. The new myth (cont) • Righteous economics expressed as social democracy • From prosperity and abundance to social idealism • Social ownership/planned economy • Changed identity: Saskatchewan as unique – social justice, economic fairness

  33. Myth and Medicare • Pivotal; psychologically key • Saskatchewan in regional decline • Instilled new myth more deeply • Not a radical idea • Magnified by politics and the power of myth

  34. Modern Myth/Reality • 1960s as turning point\ • Public debate recast: -- Economic underdevelopment; -- Reality of Aboriginal life • Thatcher: free enterprise vs socialism • Potash as means to myth • Aboriginal issues on agenda

  35. Modern Myth/Reality • Economic development core issue of 70s and 80s • Blakeney government, New Deal For People • Crowns: means to control and capture benefits • Devine captures essence of Sask. Myth “There’s so much more we can be” • Retrenchment of 1990s • Pursuit of myth remains today

  36. Conclusion • Political debate inspired by myth • Effect of myth: -- Creates false expectations -- Distorts perceptions -- Inhibits confronting important truths • Reality faced by Aboriginal people clashes with myth

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