E-Commerce Futures

1. E-Commerce Futures Bill Thompson

2. Introduction • E-commerce does not happen in isolation • It depends on all aspects of the network • It is fundamental to the network society • Straight Marxist approach • Social/political superstructure determined by economic infrastructure • So what will the network look like?

3. Where Will We Be? • The future has arrived • It’s just unevenly distributed • Assume: • Newly invented technologies make it to market • No radical discontinuity • No nanotechnology for 30 years • What can we expect?

4. The Science Bit • Information and communication technologies will be: • Scalable • Portable • Interoperable • Backwards compatible • The network will be: • Pervasive • Always on • Fast enough

5. What This Means • In five years we could see: • Everything connected to everything else • All the time • Acting semi-autononomously • What sorts of service • Intelligent clothes • Baby monitoring • Location-based services

6. Access 2005 • Screen-based access to the internet • Lean forward (monitor) • Lean back (TV) • Single data feed • Serve multiple devices • Widespread public access • Mobile services • Kiosks • Shared systems

7. Core Technologies • Fast and reliable networks • Unlimited address space • Sensible naming scheme • Cheap processors • Moore’s law maintained • Printable circuits • Good displays • Print quality resolution • Portable/rollable screens • Digital paper just out of the lab

8. Core Technologies II • Better programming • New models for code writing • Fewer bugs; Self-maintaining systems • The end of broadcast • ‘Publication’ of streamed video • Network servers or local storage (TiVO) • Other stuff • New news • Multiplayer soaps

9. Just Like Magic • Effective technologies are invisible • We do not ‘see’ gas/electricity/telephone • We must stop seeing ‘internet’ and ‘PC’ • Good technologies shape our world • Language constructs reality [Wittgenstein] • Tools create mental and physical space • The economy shapes the polity

10. New Assumptions • We can do new things • What about Pulpit.Com? • We can challenge old structures • Pakistani adolescents and mobile phones • We can build a new world • Don’t know what is coming

11. The World to Come • Easy access to information and communication technologies • World of business wholly dependent on ICT • Government increasingly so • Individual lives shaped by interaction with business/government

12. The Future of E-commerce • Current issues revolve around: • Confidence • Security • Quality of experience • Fulfilment • The user perspective is what counts • As for all retail!

13. Confidence • Will come with time • Credit cards were distrusted once • Cash was distrusted once  • Orthogonal to security • Despite what people think • People will do what is convenient

14. Security • Transmission security is already there • Storage security is a problem • Secure protocols not widely adopted • People prefer simplicity to safety • Security issues will be solved • Vendors and card issuers want it

15. Quality of Experience • B2C • Online shopping sucks • More fun at supermarket than tesco.com • B2B • Driven by business need • Streamlined and efficient • Doesn’t have to be enjoyable

16. Fulfilment • Many B2C failures due to this • If you can’t deliver the customer will disappear • B2B less likely to suffer • Quantities and approaches are different • Getting e-retail to work is all about fulfilment

17. E-Commerce Future • It is already here • The question is how fast it grows • Retailers and businesses want it • Remember what happened to banking in the 1990’s • Consumers may just have to put up with it • It’s called ‘capitalism’

18. Summary • Technology can do what we want • Capabilities outstrip our desires • Decide what you want • The tools can be there to build it • E-commerce • No longer a choice; it’s a given

19. Thank You