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2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene

ESDS International Annual Conference Understanding the world: evidence and impact London, 28 November 2011. 2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene. Jean-Yves Garnier Sharon Burghraeve Energy Statistics Division.

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2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene

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  1. ESDS International Annual ConferenceUnderstanding the world: evidence and impactLondon, 28 November 2011 2009 A year of major changes on the energy scene Jean-Yves Garnier Sharon Burghraeve Energy Statistics Division

  2. Understanding the world: evidence and impactThe need for timely and detailed data Delay: 18 months for detailed data on transformation and consumption Delay: 6 months for data on energy supply

  3. Why such a long delay in getting proper data Fast turnover in staff • Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds • Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) • More work passed to statistics offices: • More companies to survey (liberalisation) • Renewables (remote information) • Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) • Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….) • Etc. • Resources do not follow work load:Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts • Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity

  4. The past situation in energy statistics offices Retirement age 50s 40s 30s 20s passing experience gaining experience

  5. The current situation environment modelling private sector Retirement age 50s 40s policy 30s 20s efficiency • Temptation to move away from statistics is high • Young statisticians only stay a few years • Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics • No time to transmit their expertise

  6. A few words on the impact of the economic crisis - 2% Variation in GDP growth between 2008 and 2009 for selected regions

  7. A few words on the impact of the economic crisis Evolution of GDP using purchasing power parity In 2009, for the first time, GDP PPP of non-OECD countries overtook the one of OECD countries However, there is still a major gap in terms of GDP on Market Exchange Rate

  8. Impact of GDP on the world energy consumption 2009 marks the first decrease in global energy consumption since the first oil crisis 50% 50% Total Primary Energy Supply

  9. 2009: A change in the largest energy consumer Due to the more severe impact of the crisis on the US economy, China became the largest energy consumer in 2009 instead of 2011 or 2012. Mtoe 2012

  10. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth 4 500 China Mtoe 4 000 India 3 500 Other developing Asia 3 000 Russia Middle East 2 500 Rest of world 2 000 OECD 1 500 1 000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

  11. 45 Current Policies Scenario Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 Gt 42.6 Gt 40 Efficiency 53% Renewables 21% 35 20.9 Gt Biofuels 3% Nuclear 9% 30 CCS 15% 450 Scenario 25 21.7 Gt 20 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

  12. A few Q/A on evidence and impacts to conclude Has the decrease in energy consumption continued in 2010? No. Preliminary data show a 4.5% rebound, with coal consumption increasing by almost 7% and oil by 2%. What is the consequence of the ever growing demand for energy? 45 Current Policies Scenario Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 Gt 42.6 Gt Dramatic! If nothing is done in terms of energy policy, the world will never meet the 450 ppm target, but is more on track to a 650 ppm scenario. 40 Efficiency 53% Renewables 21% This means that instead of an average + 2 Celsius on Earth by the end of the century (450 ppm), we might very well have to face a + 6 Celsius (650 ppm) with all the dramatic climate changes associated with. 35 20.9 Gt Biofuels 3% Nuclear 9% 30 CCS 15% 450 Scenario Can we do something about it? 25 21.7 Gt YES! Increase energy efficiency. Change our energy mix: more renewables (more nuclear?). Be cleaner: develop CCS solutions as often as possible. 20 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 The world is not lacking of energy. But the world is lacking of time… Thank you

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