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Thinking Skills: Awareness of Heuristics and Biases

Thinking Skills: Awareness of Heuristics and Biases. Dr Teri McConville Cranfield University With acknowledgement: Prof Karen Carr Defence Thinking Skills Programme. Conscious Thinking System 2 Analysis Reason. Non-conscious Thinking System 1 Intuition Experience.

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Thinking Skills: Awareness of Heuristics and Biases

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  1. Thinking Skills:Awareness of Heuristics and Biases • Dr Teri McConville • Cranfield University • With acknowledgement: Prof Karen CarrDefence Thinking Skills Programme

  2. Conscious Thinking System 2 Analysis Reason Non-conscious Thinking System 1 Intuition Experience

  3. Two systems of thinking System 1 System 2 Systematic Focused Explicit Effortful Deliberate Rational • Fast • Holistic • Tacit • Automatic • Primary • Emotional

  4. Non-Conscious Intelligence Short-cuts, rules of thumb, quick solutions that have evolved in context - “hard-wired” Creativity, learning, dealing with complexity and ambiguity, making use of experience – slow to build, fast to extract

  5. Non-Conscious Intelligence Associations between many factors (parallel) Creative, inferential, good at ‘filling-in’ Collated experience Fast responses Sensitive to social situations “Intuition” Biased towards self/group interests GOOD for uncertainty, complexity, innovation

  6. Non-conscious Drivers of Thinking

  7. Heuristics and Biases ‘Hard-wired’ thinking that we are born with It evolved to help us function efficiently in our natural environment It biases us to respond quickly, be social, keep mental resources free for the unexpected Not conscious, happens automatically Not the same as ‘intuition’ (See Annexes in JDN 3/11)

  8. Framing

  9. Adaptable Thinking We are influenced by the ‘context’ Meaning is modified by the attitude we adopt Can be a strength and a weakness

  10. Anchoring and Adjustment

  11. Confirmation Bias E.g. People with right-wing views buy right-wing newspapers and those with left-wing views buy left wing newspapers

  12. Groupthink • Is a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when members’ strivings for unanimity over-ride their motivation to appraise realistically the alternative courses of action. Janis (1982)

  13. Availability

  14. Availability Cascade

  15. Representativeness

  16. Problems • The problem of base-rate neglect • Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes • Insensitivity to sample size • Misperception of chance and randomness

  17. Other ways of thinking Convergent Thinking Divergent Thinking Creative Imaginative Qualitative Open-minded Structured Goal-oriented Objective Linear

  18. Mapping our Thinking

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