Campaign Strategies & Tactics: The Road to the White House

1. Campaign Strategies & Tactics: The Road to the White House Lessons from the 2012 Presidential Election

2. Why Study Campaigns? • Learn about how to win elections • Learn about a potential administration: • Campaign reveals the initial policy agenda. • Top campaign staff often work later in the White House. • Campaign reveals candidate’s leadership style, especially in communications.

3. The Long & Winding Road in American Campaigns • Presidential system • Single member plurality /Winner take all system • Two dominant parties • Two-stage process • Independents

4. Campaign Organizations • Large specialized professional staff • Campaign manager • Media relations & strategic communications • Scheduling • Advance work • Issue research • Opposition research • Speech writing • Advertising • Fundraising • Finances • Accounting • Legal advise • Voter targeting & turnout • Volunteer coordination • Polling

5. Polling • Importance • Impact of New Technologies

6. Polling • By candidate organizations • Provides valuable information for strategy & tactics • By news media • Provides information on the status of the race itself • Tends to reinforce “horse-race” approach to election coverage, at the expense of policy positions

7. Grassroots Operation • Field offices in every state. • Combined use of electronic media and door-to-door canvassing (“high tech with high touch”)

8. Campaign Strategy • Strategy is a road map or blue print • Winston’s definition: “Achieving a desired outcome using a structured approach based on understanding existing and potential environmental elements and your opponent’s potential strategies” (p. 24).

9. The Road Itself: Structural Factors • Nomination vs. general election strategies • Voter turnout • Geography • Incumbency

10. Race for the 2012 GOP Nomination • One of the crowd • Mitt Romney as apparent frontrunner • Had name recognition, donors & political organization • Has experience in both private & public spheres • Has personal wealth • But he was not alone…

11. Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Rick Perry • Michele Bachmann • Herman Cain • Jon Huntsman • Tim Pawlenty

12. Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Rick Perry • Michele Bachmann • Herman Cain • Jon Huntsman

13. Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Rick Perry • Michele Bachmann • Herman Cain

14. Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Rick Perry • Michele Bachmann

15. Less Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Rick Perry

16. Much Less Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum

17. Much Less Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul • Newt Gingrich

18. Much Less Crowded Lanes • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul

19. The Republican National Convention Tampa Florida, August 27 – 30 • The theme: A Better Future

20. Nomination Strategies • Importance of early victories: • More convention delegates available • Greater media attention • Increased credibility as a candidate • Increased fundraising • Road hazards: Meeting high expectations. Being seen as too ideologically extreme Mending fences after bitter nomination fight

21. Voter Turnout • 1960 62.8 • 1972-1992 low 50s • 1996 49 • 2000 54 • 2004 60 • 2008 62 • 2012 57.5

22. Voter Turnout • Long lines plagued many polling places

23. Geography • Fewer “swing” states: • 1960, every state was considered crucial • 1976, 30 states were in play, with almost all the largest states among the swing states. • 2004, 11 states in play • 2012, just three considered critical: Ohio, Florida and Virginia . They drew 2/3 of the campaign appearances

24. Focusing on a Few Battleground States • Daily Show with Jon Stewart, “Swing State Hell,” Comedy Central. http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-november-1-2012/swing-state-hell • A Severe Candidate Warning, from Stephen Colbert • http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/420761/november-05-2012/colbert-super-pac---severe-candidate-warning

25. Electoral College Electoral College Changes post Census • Impact in 2004 • G.W. Bush Example • 2012 Impact • Red States gained 8 seats and lost 2 • Blue States gained 4 seats and lost 10 • 12 point GOP advantage • Clear in House election: • GOP won 48.2% of vote • Dems won 49% of vote

26. Electoral College 2012 Electoral College math on election night, 6 NOVEMBER 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWYQxM4GMPY(CNN, 15 minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PypDMuGTzUA (CBS News, 4 minutes)

27. Incumbency Advantages • Free & regular media coverage • A record to run on; a known quantity • Organizational advantages • “Presidential” persona • Head of the political party • Fundraising advantage Speech on Libya • Some control over federal resources • No intra-party challenges

28. Incumbency Disadvantages • Electorate looking for change; blaming the president for problems • Presidential time limited: must handle demands of governing • Inability to deliver on earlier promises 14 times, presidents have lost re-election bids 16 times, presidents have won (including 3 times for FDR)

29. President Obama as a Candidate • Record of achievement subject to interpretation. • Attacks by the political right and political left • Supporters expressed loss of idealism & hope. • Experienced campaign staff. • Strong organization.

30. Public Approval of Obama • Low job approval but high likeability. 3rd year job approval at 44% and 4th year at 52%. Yet likeability exceeded 50% & higher than job approval

31. The Democratic National Convention Charlotte, North Carolina, Sept. 4 – 6

32. David Winston’s Advice • “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy • Define the desired outcome • Winning office – specifics • Winning office by a substantial margin (to get a mandate to govern”

33. A Mandate to Govern • Winning by a substantial margin (60% or more) creates the idea that the winner’s policies should be enacted. A mandate is useful for a new president to claim. News media reinforce this idea. • Yet are mandates real in America? • Voter turnout low • Voters vote for many reasons

34. David Winston’s Advice • “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy • Define the desired outcome • Develop a situational awareness

35. Situational Awareness • Accurately assessing strengths & weaknesses of your candidate & the opponent • Understanding the issues voters care about, and being flexible to change if those issue concerns change • Reading the public’s attitude about your party (the “brand”).

36. David Winston’s Advice • “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy • Define the desired outcome • Develop a situational awareness • Identify your opponent’s potential strategies

37. David Winston’s Advice • “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy • Define the desired outcome • Develop a situational awareness • Identify your opponent’s potential strategies • Define winning coalitions of voters

38. David Winston’s Advice • “Thinking new” • Five steps to a winning strategy • Define the desired outcome • Develop a situational awareness • Identify your opponent’s potential strategies • Define winning coalitions of voters • Create a strategic communications plan

39. Communications Matrix Create a feedback loop to adjust the strategy as needed if the political environment changes.