State Key Project during 9th 5-yr plan （ 96-908 ）

1. State Key Project during 9th 5-yr plan （96-908） Research on Short-term Climate Prediction System in China

2. Background Along with rapid development of our country’s economy, not only need more accurate mid-short term climate prediction, but also cry for longer-term climate prediction. Short-term climate prediction is a preceding problem in international atmospheric science and geoscience domains, which also being a most difficult span-subject problem. Because of its‘ important social economy significance and scientific difficult, the project had been ranked as one of 16 state key projects during 9th 5-yr plan.

3. Short-term climate prediction can’t follow old theories and methods used in mid-short term weather forecast, must develop new theories and methods. Climate prediction is in the face of whole complicated climate system and its' changes, which relate to the changes of atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and hydrosphere and their interaction, so it is limited and restricted by other correlated subject’s development and being a international science difficult problem .

4. climate system Space sun （short wave） radiation land （long wave） radiation glacier and snow Atmosphere absorption reflection emission cloud volcanic eruption： gas and volcanic particulate wind atmosphere－water interaction ocean－atmosphere interaction run off human activity Ocean sea ice ocean current lake and river ice－ocean interaction land surface process

5. Scientific difficult of short-term climate prediction in China Because of the together influences of Tibetan, Asian monsoon and Pacific, climate cause is very complex and special. The common climatology theories and methods can’t resolve the climate prediction problem in China. It is essential to investigate theories and methods suitable to realistic conditions in China according to Chinese climate characteristics by our scientists.

6. Major factors affecting climate of China Snow cover Blocking high Land surface process Tibet plateau Sub-tropical high pressure Monsoon Typhoon Indian Ocean El Nino

7. Projection introduction Organizing departments are China meteorological administration, China academy of science, ministry of education, ministry of agriculture, ministry of water resources, with CMA the first presiding department. There are 731 researchers participate in the project from 31 units in 5 departments. Intermediate technical post 137 18.7% 731人 Elementary technical post 92 12.6% High technical post 443 60.6% Master 21 2.9% PH.D 38 5.2% Members in the special project and technical post proportion

8. Through 731 scientists ( including 5 academicians and near 80 professors and researchers) 5yrs’(1996-2000) research, we has achieved whole target to tackle the key problem, established the first short-term operation system over state and regions which has being run successfully for 3 years and provided more than 14 kinds climate products for national and foreign users.

9. Main technical innovations and level （Ⅰ）Establish a new prediction model with physical conception based on opening out climate signals. Put forward the strongest climate signals which influence climate abnormity of China are El Nino events, Tibetan snow cover and monsoon. Hereby excogitate new physical concept model, and provide new thought and practical methods with basis of firm physics for climate prediction in our country.

10. World impact of El Nino Winter Summer (from Climate Prediction Center, USA,2001)

11. Impact of El Nino on summer precipitation in China for following year Strong signal of El nino El nino events has remarkable effect on summer rainfall in China for following year： Wet over North China and Yangtze basins and dry over Huanghe and Huaihe valleys.

12. Tibetan snow cover increase but Eurasian snow cover decrease Snow depth over Tibetan Eurasian snow cover

13. Positive correlation between winter show cover over the Tibetan plateau And subsequent summer precipitation in China

14. Intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon has a negative correlation with summer precipitation in China Timing of onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon has a negative correlation with summer precipitation in China

15. (Ⅱ) Develop and establish a complex global and regional dynamical climate prediction model system. The model system including 5 models: • T63L16 Global Atmosphere General Circulation Model • Highly Resolved Regional Climate Model • T63L30 Global Ocean Model and sea-ice model • Pacific-Indian Ocean circulation model with high resolution • El Nino prediction model

16. Dynamical Short-term Climate Prediction Model System of NCC Atmosphere, Ocean Data Assimilation Global Atmosphere Model Global Ocean Model Regional Ocean Model Couple Couple Nested Regional Climate Model Model Post-process System El Nino Prediction Model

17. The climate model give a accurate prediction for 1998 summer flood over China before 3 months 1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (prediction in April) 1998 summer (JJA) precipitation anomaly percentage (observation)

18. 2003 summer precipitation is predicted successful by global ocean-atmosphere coupled model nested the highly resolved regional climate model Predicted precipitation(JJA) anomaly percentage in March(left) and May(right) But the promulgate prediction from synthesis of many products can’t forecast flood over Huaihe valley.

19. （Ⅲ）Under sustaining of computer flat with high capability and network, integrated short-term climate operation system has been established. The system can satisfy the need of many country economy departments. According to the climate prediction background, it Can provide the effects of climate change on country economy departments and key regions such aswater resources, agriculture, forest, traffic, electric power and important engineering and provide timely decision-making service for decision departments.

20. Frame of short-term climate prediction Climate evaluation and service operational subsystem IBM Netfinity NCC Catalyst 2948G NMC Catalyst 2924M NMC Galaxy(Yinhe)、sunway、CRAY huge computer 3* 100M FastEth Chanel 2* 1000M GigaEth Channel Climate monitor-diagnosis operational subsystem IBM Netfinity Climate prediction operational subsystem IBM Netfinity Client server Client server … Center exchange machine 701 GESW1 Catalyst 4006 Client server Dynamical model subsystem IBM Netfinity 4*1000M Fibre Channel Monitor flat IBM 43P-150 SP console IBM 43P-150 main server IBM SP Climate databank server Scientific calculate server web manager Light fibre disk array(1.3TB) Minitype tape store

21. Short-term climate prediction system Short-term climate prediction databank Dynamical climate model Climate monitoring diagnosis Climate effect evaluation application and service databank Product output Communication net Product output Product output Climate application Dynamical model test Data pre-processing Data post-processing monitoring dagnose Climate product service Climate effect evalution Global history data analysis Short-term climate prediction data, figure, methods Information collection Application climate databank RegCM test Special service NCC LAN Seasonal-annual dynamic model prediction Prediction integration decision-make Climate information analysis Mid-small scale local climate model Flood/drought monitoring prediction ENSO events integrated prediction Application climate method searches East Asian monsoon inspect diagnosis Monthly dynamical extend prediction model Ice-snow belt inspect diagnose Global climate inspect diagnosis Climate data hierarchical storage system Coupled a-o model for ENSO prediction Prediction quality test Climte effect evalute Short-term climate prediction Climate prdiction evalute Special climate prediction Climate data processing Decision-making and commonweal service 9210 WAN High capability computer

22. Summary for six-year seasonal prediction by use of theprediction system (1998-2003) Correct prediction Basically correct, but with regional floods incorrectly predicted 1998: Floods in theYangtze River and Northeast China 2000: Above-normal precipitation in the region between theYellow River and the Huaihe River; drought in North China 1999: drought in North China, but floods in Southern Jiangsu (23June-1July) 2001: Above-normal precipitation along coastal region; drought in central part of China 2002: drought in North China and floods in South China 2003: increased precipitation in North China; but floods in the Huaihe River(27June-12July) Predictve capability: Good skill for large-scale area and general trends and relatively low skill for regional floods

23. Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 1998 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 1998 summer, heavy floods occurred in whole Yangtze basins, predictions for range and intensity are quite successful

24. Seasonal precipitation prediction for 1999 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed) 1999年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率预报图 1999年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率图 1999年夏季，预报为中等旱涝年景，多雨范围比前一年小 ，少雨范围比前一年大，与实况一致。但预报主要雨带偏北 ，位于江淮、黄淮、华北中南部到东北东部一带；实况是主要雨带偏南，位于长江以南地区；出入较大。

25. Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 2000 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 2000 summer, predictions are right for flood over Huanghe and Huaihe valleys and drought over some regions in North of China, The prediction evaluation highly reached 76%, with 11% increase compared to which in “9th 5-yr plan” and being the third since 1978.

26. Seasonal precipitation prediction(left) and observation(right) for 2001 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) 2001 summer, the prediction is consistent to observation, there are flood over East of Huanghe and Huaihe valleys, lower of Yangtze basin, most regions in South of China, east of Southwest China, northwest of Sinkiang, with drought over most regions in North China and Yangtze basins. But raininess belts in prediction is weaker than observation in South of China and stronger in north of China.

27. Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2002 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed) 2002年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率预报图 2002年夏季（6～8月）降水量距平百分率图 预报 2002年夏季，我国多雨的范围比前一年增大，江淮、长江中下游、江南东部、华南大部、云贵高原南部等地降水偏多，部分地区洪涝灾害比前一年加重。北方大部地区以少雨为主，华北、西北东部和东北的部分地区要注意多年连续干旱带来的严重影响。上述预报意见基本正确。但部分地区预报与实况有出入。

28. Seasonal precipitation prediction for 2003 summer (Anomaly percentage:%) (left: predicted; right: observed) 预报总体上正确：北方降水比前四年增多，可能出现南北两支多雨带。江淮地区少雨，有夏旱（高温少雨）。长江流域不会出现严重洪涝。登陆台风个数偏少。但淮河流域突发性暴雨未报出。

29. (Ⅳ) Using popularize and society economical benefits Since 1998, the system has been turning into the main operational system in national climate center and 7 regional meteorology centers and playing skeleton action，besides, many kinds of climate products and information being put out periodically or non-periodically by different medium form . The project has remarkable international influence and provide winter, summer and stride-year climate prediction for East Asian and Southeast Asian on East Asian international climate conference hold by turns in China, Japan and Korea every year. Which has established the foundation for national climate center to upgrade being Asian regional climate center underling WMO.

30. Significance of the project implementation Improve greatly modernization level of meteorology option in our country, and make a great progress from empirical and statistical method to objective, quantitative and automatic prediction. bring along improvement of whole numerical weather and climate prediction technique. Intensify our international competition in this domain.