Clothed in a Robe of Concrete? 50 years of demography, land-use and ecology in Israel

1. Clothed in a Robe of Concrete?50 years of demography, land-use and ecology in Israel Daniel Orenstein Center for Environmental Studies, Brown University 11 April, 2006

3. Environmental problemsthrough an ecologist’s eyes • Trends • Population growing • Material wealth increasing (cars, homes) • Increased demand for resources (water, electricity, consumer goods) • Indicators • Chronic shortage of natural resources • Growing dependency on foreign resources • Increased tension over resource allocations • Negation of positive trends in pollution production • Rearguard battles for habitat protection

5. 4:1 6:1 20:1 165:1

6. Research questions • What is the impact of population growth on loss of open space? Population Growth Open Space

7. Research questions • What is the impact of population growth on loss of open space? • What is the role of policy in mediating the impact of population growth on open space? Land use policy Population Growth Open Space

8. Research questions • What is the impact of population growth on loss of open space? • What is the impact of population growth, as mediated by land use policy, on biological conservation? Land use policy Population Growth

9. The geographic context AREA Israel 21,000 km2 West Bank & Gaza 6,000 km2 NEIGHBORS Lebanon – UN recognized border Syria – 1974 disengagement lines Jordan – Internationally recognized borders (1994) Egypt – Internationally recognized border (1982) Palestinian Authority – Borders in process of negotiation

10. Steep rainfall gradient Varied topography and soils Convergence of phytogeographic zones Major flyway for migratory birds Long history of human-nature interactions Mediterranean Oak Woodlands Coastal Dunes Mediterranean/Arid Interface Tropical Oases Arid Desert Coral Reefs The ecological context

11. The ecological context

12. The demographic context2005 Population: 7 millionAnnual growth rate ≈ 1.3% RELIGION/ETHNICITY Jewish 76% Muslim 16% Christian/Non-Arab 0.5% Christian/Arab 2% Unclassified 4% Druze 2% SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION North (Galilee) 17% Center, coast (incl. Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa) 65% South (Negev) 14% TYPE OF COMMUNITY Urban 92% Rural 8%

13. The demographic context * Mid-range projection, Central Bureau of Statistics, 2004

14. Research sites • Ecological gradient • Demographic gradient • Diverse human communities

15. Quantifying LUCC - Methodology

16. Quantifying LUCC - Methodology

17. Quantifying LUCC - Methodology

18. Part 1: Demography and land use change • Independent variable – built land (hectares) over three time periods in 40 localities • Dependent variables • Population growth • Hectares of open space • Hectares of open agricultural space • Urban/rural • Arab/Jewish • Core/periphery

19. Part 1: Demography and land use change • Independent variable – built land (hectares) over three time periods in 40 localities • Dependent variables • Population growth (+) • Hectares of open space • Hectares of open agricultural space (+) • Urban/rural • Arab/Jewish (+ Jewish) • Core/periphery (+ Periphery)

20. Part 1: Demography and land use change – conclusions • Population growth matters, but scale and context determines extent • Correlation strongest at large aggregations of time and space • Large discrepancy in impact at smaller scales of resolution • Policy context matters • Urban or rural • Jewish or Arab • National land use policy matters

21. Part 2: Policy and land use change • Zionist and Israeli land use planning historically driven by ethno-demographic considerations • Environmental considerations have become increasingly important • Conflicting paradigms lie at the core of current land use conflicts • Environmental / demographic planning tensions common around the world

22. The demographic context * Mid-range projection, Central Bureau of Statistics, 2004

23. Arabs as a percentage of total population – sub-districts, 1961

24. The development of theethno-demographic land use paradigm • Goals • Settle land, establish borders • Secure borders • Disperse [Jewish] population • Tools • Ideological pioneering discourse • Physically moving populations • Development of community infrastructure • Successes • Successive partition plans and the 1948 borders • The West Bank/Gaza settlement movement

25. Ethno-demographic land use planning (1950s – 1970s) Aryeh Sharon Plan • Distribute population towards periphery • Population the empty spaces • Fortify the borders

26. Ethno-demographic land use planning (1980s) • Judaization of the Galilee • Pithat Shalom 1972

27. Environmental impact ofethno-demographic planning Case study – The northern Galilee

28. Environmental impact ofethno-demographic planning Regional councils, 1961 Population: 2,000 Density: 10 persons/hectare developed

29. Environmental impact ofethno-demographic planning Regional councils, 2001 Population: 9,600 Density: 5 persons/hectare developed

32. Ethno-demographic planningand open space Arab localities, 1961 Population: 20,000 Density: 28 persons/hectare developed

33. Ethno-demographic planningand open space Arab localities, 2001 Population: 66,000 Density: 31 persons/hectare developed

35. Israeli land use planning - 2000An environmental paradigm "We've all grown up on the ethos of fighting for land and for years there was a war that involved everyone - Jews, Arabs, development and preservation interest groups, villages and cities, and the results of that war have been easy to see on the ground.” --- Oscar Abu Razek, 2005 Director, Israel Ministry of Interior Commenting on the legislation of National Outline Plan 35

36. Israeli land use planning - 2000An environmental paradigm National Outline Plan 35 • Maximize contiguous open space • Avoids new development in specific areas • Concentrates development = Landscapes and natural resources = Forests and nature reserves = Protected open space

37. “Israel 2020” Israeli land use planning - 2005Another paradigm Former Prime Minister Sharon’s plan: 30 new communities “Over the next ten years, Blueprint Negev will bring over 500,000 people to 100,000 housing sites that will be created in 25 new communities.” --- Jewish National Fund, USA 2006 = Proposed communities = Protected open space

39. Land use planning: 2005Return to ethno-demographic planning • Ranches and the “Wine Trail” • Prevent Bedouin expansion • Divide between Bedouin and Palestinian population • Blueprint Negev • Bring 250,000 Jews to the Negev • Israel’s “Manifest Destiny” • “Essential to Israel’s future” 2002

41. ETHNIC CONFLICT AND/OR NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS POLICY PARADIGMS ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITIES Conflicting motives in policy formulation Population redistribution to areas of ethnic “imbalance” Population redistribution to areas of border insecurity Economic development Open space preservation Protection of ecosystem integrity Protection of cultural landscapes and archeological sites POLICY GOALS POLICY OUTCOMES Partial success in meeting policy goals

42. Part 2 – Conclusions:Are we in a transition period? • Old paradigm – spatial control and response to local demographic inequalities • New paradigm – environmental protection of open spaces • Challenges • Demographic concerns not resolved • Past inequalities remain • Environmental restrictions perceived as inequitable

43. Current land use planning: Other considerations • Suburban/exurban living increasing in popularity • Decline in agricultural preservation ethic • Growing power of real estate interests • Demographic trends • Smaller households • Larger houses • Resettlement of settlers from occupied territories

44. The environmental / ethno-demographic planning conflict • Turkey: Kurds and the Southeastern Anatolia Project • China: Uighurs and the Xinjiang Province • Egypt: Securing the Sinai Border • Guatemala: Disputed border region with Belize

45. What kind of development is driven by the ethno-demographic paradigm? • Dispersed • Low-density • Strategically located

46. Dispersed Low-density Strategically located Inefficient use of land reserves Lack of rural/urban edge Abandonment of urban core Underutilization of existing infrastructure What is the definition of sprawl?

47. Dispersed Low-density Strategically located Habitat loss Habitat fragmentation Habitat degradation Hunting/collecting Poisoning What are the primary drivers of species extinctions?

48. Part 3: What is the impact of land use patterns on biodiversity? Carmiel Rishon 1961 2001