World Bank Climate Investment Funds

1. World Bank Climate Investment Funds Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection Process 27 January 2009

2. Context • Remit • Identify 5-10 countries or groups or countries for participation in PPCR • Address a number of criteria: • vulnerability • eligibility • country preparedness & rapid results • country distribution (regional) • Hazard types • Coherence & value addition • Replicability & sustainability • Scalability & development impact

3. Addressing criteria in ToR • Criteria • Hazard (V), vulnerability (I) & preparedness (III) addressed explicitly • Country distribution (IV) addressed through choice of regions • Eligibility (II) considered - countries not selected if ineligible • Replicability & sustainability (VII) related to regional contexts • Scalability & development impact (VIII) function of development & hazard contexts • Coherence & value addition (VI) depends on specific national contexts • To a significant extent, VI, VII & VIII will depend on nature of programmes & projects supported, & how they are implemented - cannot pre-judge

4. How to approach the problem? • Practical considerations • Short timescale • How to bring some coherence & transparency to process? • What data to use? • How to deploy data? Problems with indicator-driven approaches… • How to address criteria? • How to ensure selection relevant to climate change?

5. The EG’s approach • Risk assessment approach • Address climate change risks faced by countries • Risk arises from interaction of hazards with underlying vulnerability • Hazard as an entry point for analysis • STEP 1 • Identify long-term, large-scale climate changehazards • Select climate change “hot-spots” where these hazards are high • STEP 2 • Identify which countries are most vulnerable to hazard(s) in question • Use indicators relevant to region, hazard & development context

6. Hazards are not just about extremes and variability

7. Climate change “hot-spots” in Africa • North Africa / Maghreb • Extreme desiccation - risks to water availability, agriculture, rangelands, food security • Southern Africa • Desiccation coupled with risk of landscape/ecosystem collapse in greater Kalahari region & ENSO impacts • Risks to livelihoods, food security, water resources • Sahel • Highly uncertain, increased rainfall variability, possibility of wetter conditions but not necessarily sustained • How to deal with decadal-scale variability & longer? Risks of maladaptation Annual temperature & precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B simulations, men for 21 models. Source: IPCC (2007)

8. Indicators for vulnerability screening in North Africa / Maghreb • LECZ - population in low-elevation coastal zone • CRDIa - total no. affected by climate-related disasters 1978-2007, scaled by 2007 popn. • IWS - % of population with access to improved water source • FI - food insecurity inferred from % of population undernourished • HDI - human development index rank, proxy for adaptive capacity • CVI - climate vulnerability index (emphasising water) • CDVI - number of occurrences in top fifth of vulnerability index with 13 different weights • CDRIb - historical climate disaster risk on scale 1-5 based across related indices for 1990s • RAI - Resource allocation index, proxy for country preparedness

9. Other “hot-spot” regions identified South Asia:Exposed to changes in water availability resulting from loss of Himalayan glaciers. Loss of water outside monsoon season, also extremes, SLR. Southeast Asia: High exposure to sea-level rise and associated coastal climate change hazards due to low-lying land, megadeltas, high population. Central Asia:Exposed to desiccation as a result of high temperature increases, significant reductions in rainfall & loss of snow-melt from mountain regions. Andean region: Exposed to severe reductions in water availability due to glacier loss, also other hazards linked to ENSO, circulation changes. Caribbean: High exposure to a suite of hazards associated with sea-level rise, possible changes in tropical storms, ecosystem loss, desiccation & water loss. Pacific Islands: Similar to Caribbean region, with additional problems of isolation & fact that many islands are low-lying atolls. + North Africa/Magreb, Southern Africa & Sahel (previous slide) = 9 regions Based on projections from IPCC AR4 (2007), expert judgment & review of other, post-AR4 literature.

10. Countries & regional groups selected Caribbean region (Dominica, Guyana, Haiti) Pacific region (countries TBC) Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines (Southeast Asia)

11. Country distribution

12. Comments on countries selected • Global distribution - regional balance • Diverse environments & development contexts • A range of key long-term hazards also linked with extreme events • Identification of additional high-risk African LDCs

13. Strengths of the EG’s approach • Coherent methodology & conceptual framework • Transparent process • Combines expert judgment with indicator-based data • Not reductionist - not based on single-number index • Addresses contextual nature of risk (to an extent) • Is climate change specific (except for preparedness indicator & HDI)

14. Caveats • Top-down approach • Characterisation of hazard & vulnerability necessarily crude • Based on projections that may be conservative - may miss certain hazards and/or underestimate their severity • Focuses on large-scale, long-term, systemic hazards & risks - countries may experience high risks due to other combinations of hazard & vulnerability, e.g. combinations of extremes etc.

15. Alternatives & improvements • More participatory selection process might be desirable • has its own risks - easy to lose climate change focus • Method could be refined by developing better indicators • Hazard index addressing different national context • Vulnerability indicators targeting national hazard & development contexts • Risk indices combining hazard & vulnerability • Time & resource intensive undertaking, but might start with one region

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