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Økonomiske forutsetninger

Økonomiske forutsetninger. Gullfaks landsbyen 2007. Olje og gass forutsetninger. Exchange rate: 6 NOK/USD Diskonterings faktor: 8 %. Brønn kostnader. Subsea/Platform brønn. Avhenger av type brønn og lengde. TTRD Sidesteg Ny brønn, MLT

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Økonomiske forutsetninger

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  1. Økonomiske forutsetninger Gullfaks landsbyen 2007

  2. Olje og gass forutsetninger Exchange rate: 6 NOK/USD Diskonterings faktor: 8 %

  3. Brønn kostnader • Subsea/Platform brønn. Avhenger av type brønn og lengde. • TTRD • Sidesteg • Ny brønn, MLT • Ta kontakt med gruppe kontaktene dere i Statoil for input avhengig av brønnkonsept dere velger.

  4. Usikkerheter • Olje priser: • High/Low case: +/- 40 % • Low price bruk 20 USD/bbl long term for olje. • High price bruk 50 USD/bbl long term for olje • CAPEX/OPEX • High/low case: +/- 40 %

  5. Prob: 20 %, High price Prob: 60 %, Base case Prob: 20 %, Low price Decision criteria • NPV at base price (EPA) • NPV at low price • NPV at high price • Expected net present value, E(NPV) • Probabilities to be used for different oil prices, with all other parameters kept unchanged are 60 % for base oil prices, 20 % for low oil prices and 20 % for high oil prices.

  6. Real options • This is a way of capturing value that is not recognized in traditional NPV analyses. • With an uncertain future, there is a value in having the flexibility to decide what to do after some of that uncertainty has been revealed. • The flexibility, if any, to wait, abandon or expand on an investment opportunity is captured in a real option. • In traditional NPV analyses, the ENPV is calculated on the basis of cash flows reflecting uncertainties in and relationship between different underlying parameters

  7. Risk or uncertainties of a project are captured by calculating the effect on the ENPV of both positive and negative changes in these parameters such as: • Economic/market related assumptions • Tax-related assumptions • Technical assumptions • IOR • Start-up date • Environmental assumptions • Country and reputation risk. • The project decision is made, based on expected outcomes, before the realised value of the relevant parameters are revealed. • Simple methodology of valuing real options is using decision trees with probabilities for different outcomes.

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