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Predicting Coastal Flooding at Delaware Bay in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

This study proposes a modeling approach to predict coastal flooding and its impact on residents and transportation systems at the east bank of Delaware Bay. The results show that sea-level rise will lead to increased vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods.

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Predicting Coastal Flooding at Delaware Bay in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

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  1. Prediction of coastal flooding at residence zones and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay in sea‐level rise conditions Hansong Tang1, Steven I-Jy Chien2, Marouane Temimi1 Cheryl Ann Blain3, Qu Ke1, Liuhui Zhao2, Simon Kraatz11 NOAA CREST/Dept. Civil Eng., CCNY2 Dept. of Civil and Environ. Eng., NJIT3 Oceanography Div., Naval Research Lab 8th Annual NOAA‐CREST Symposium, CCNY, June 6, 2013 Sponsored by UTRC/CREST

  2. Outline 1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches 2. Region of study and data collection 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology 4. Results and analysis 5. Concluding remarks

  3. 1. Motivation, challenge, and approaches Motivation and Objective • Higher potential for coastal flooding, especially at NY/NJ coastlines Sea level rise (in 100 yrs, 0.2 – 0.6 m, even 0.8 – 2 m), strong hurricanes become more frequent  residence area, transportation system, etc. at risk • Objective Propose a modeling approach for coastal flooding, especially local flooding Case study at Cape May and Cumberland, NJ (one of the country's oldest vacation resorts, at most a few meters above sea level, frequently flooded)

  4. 1. Motivation, challenge, and approach Challenge and Approach • Challenges flooding modeling with accuracy and detail (traffic way, bridge, etc.) –- require advanced approach and intensive computing besides coastal water, land runoff also contribute to flooding -- coupling is need population data collection -- population distribution, changes with time • Approaches high resolution approach coupling of hydrodynamics and hydrology population/flooding overlay, a model for future population

  5. 2. Region of study and data collection Region of Study Population 2010 in Cape May and Cumberland Counties (US Census Bureau 2013) Roads, Railroads, and Bridges West side of Delaware Bay Ave depth 7 – 30 m

  6. 2. Region of study and data collection Sea Level Rise, Storm, Bathymetry, and Cases of Study Sea level rise: IPCC Observation for storm: nor’easter Bathymetry and topography: NGDC, LIDAR, and USGS DEM Cases of study:

  7. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrodynamics Model Shallow water model FVCOM External mode Internal mode Mesh and model setup (FVCOM 3000 elements, SWM 40,000 elements)

  8. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrodynamics Model Calibration Hydrodynamic model calibration. Line – modeling, circle – measurement. a) and b) Current velocity measured at Brown Shoal Light. c) Surface elevation at Ship John Shoal

  9. 3. Modeling flooded population and transportation system: Methodology Hydrology Model and Flooding Determination Hydrologic model of runoff flooding (fp --flood potential, -- elevation, d – distance to water) Flooding determination F=0, dry. F>, = 1 flooded

  10. 4. Results and analysis Prediction of Population Projected population in municipals using a model that considers future trends on mortality, fertility, migration, etc.

  11. 4. Results and analysis Prediction of Flooding a) Hydrodynamic b) Hydrology c) Hydrodynamics/Hydrology a) Zoom in flooding b) Flood area vs time c) Flood area vs sea level

  12. 4. Results and analysis Various Flooded Zones Prediction of various flooded zones

  13. 4. Results and analysis Distribution of Flooded Population Prediction of various flooded zones

  14. 4. Results and analysis Numbers of Affected Population

  15. 4. Results and analysis Distribution of Flooded Transportation Facilities

  16. 4. Results and analysis Flooded Transportation System Affected length (miles) of railroads Affected bridges Affected length (centerline miles) of roadways “–” represents a bridge is not located in a flooded area under that scenario “x” represents a bridge is possibly flooded because it is located in a flooded area “f” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will be flooded “n” represents a bridge located in a flooded area will not be flooded

  17. 5. Concluding Remarks Summary • A multi-disciplinary approach is proposed to predict coastal flooding and its impact on residents and transportation systems, and it is applied to study future coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay. • Sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods. • A flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County, more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.

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