Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making

1. Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making Chapter 12

2. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making heuristics Kahneman and Tversky proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making the same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray

3. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic coincidences randomness representative

4. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic respresentativeness heuristic�we judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population from which it was selected we believe that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes this heuristic is so persuasive that we often ignore important statistical information that we should consider

5. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Sample Size and Representativeness a large sample is statistically more likely to reflect the true proportions in a population than a small sample small-sample fallacy

6. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Base Rate and Representativeness base rate�how often an item occurs in the population base-rate fallacy�emphasize representativeness and underemphasize important information about base rates

7. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic Base Rate and Representativeness Kahneman and Tversky�engineers and lawyers study Bayes' theorem�judgments should be influenced by two factors: the base rate and the likelihood ratio likelihood ratio�whether the description is more likely to apply to Population A or Population B

8. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic The Conjunction Fallacy and Representativeness Tversky and Kahneman�"Linda", bank teller, feminist problem rank statements in terms of probability

9. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Decision Making The Representativeness Heuristic The Conjunction Fallacy and Representativeness conjunction rule�the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events conjunction fallacy�people judge the probability of the conjunction of two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent event judge representativeness instead of statistical probability

10. Cognition 7e, Margaret Matlin Chapter 12 Conjunction Fallacy