SHAPING THE NEW EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY MAP What are the latest geostrategic developments?

1. SHAPING THE NEW EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY MAPWhat are the latest geostrategic developments? Dr. Constantinos Filis Research Director Institute of International Relations Panteion University

2. Arab uprisings • Discovery of hydrocarbons • Economic Crisis in the European south • Civil war in Syria and repercussions for the wider region • Migration flows • Egypt and Turkey redefining positions, as is Israel, which has lost the two constants in its foreign policy • Hopes for de-escalation following U.S. moves to close fronts Conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean

3. Freezing ofNabucco • Reservations regarding South Stream • Scepticism regarding the use of nuclear energy • Provision of limited quantities from Azerbaijan • Turkmenistan’s orientation towards Eastern markets + instability in Iraq + isolation of Iran • Russian shift towards China and the Asian market • European market dependency on imported gas at 83% in 2035. Annual supply-demand discrepancy of over 40 BCM in 2030 Importance of the Eastern Mediterranean

4. Energy can be rendered a tool for stability and prosperity. Usually, however, it is a means for exerting influence – and even political coercion • The recent energy finds may not resolve longstanding disputes, but they will create a more favorable environment for reducing tensions, thanks mainly to shared economic interests Energy: Catalyst for Cooperation or Competition?

5. The energy market seeks credibility and predictability. Policies in the direction of proposals that are inclusive, rather than limiting potential synergies • As production and export moves ahead, getting involved will become more alluring for more states • The more pluralistic regional alliances are, the more difficult it will be for anyone to attempt to call the energy status quo into question Energy: Catalyst for Cooperation or Competition?

6. Pivotal player in the resolution of the Cyprus problem • Should Ankara promote the idea of partitioning (plan B, as Ankara has leaked), it will find it difficult to explain to the Turkish Cypriots their exclusion from the benefits of energy exploitation • Large and thirsty market – potential importer • Not a particularly attractive option for transit country Turkey’s Role

7. Exploit its European identity • Responsible and trusted • Initiatives for wider synergies • European presidency presents an opportunity • Coordination, but not necessarily identification, with Cyprus • Need for a balanced regional policy Greece’s Position

8. Europe has to point up the importance/meaning of security of supply. The Eastern Mediterranean offers diversification of suppliers and transit countries. • Cyprus and Greece at the center of preparations/procedures • If distressed societies are offered a realistic prospect, leaderships will be pressured to compromise.The latter will buy time and stability at home, as their economies are on the verge of default The EU and the Eastern Mediterranean

9. ‘Chicken or the egg’ dilemma • Does resolution precede exploitation of resources, or will exploitation bring stability and peace? • Time factor • Competition from other regions + forms of energy • Time for complete resolution of problems before moving ahead with production is a luxury we don’t have • Energy will be the catalyst for realization of the cooperation imperative, and it will engender regional synergies Conclusions