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Keenan Johnston Shivam Khanna David Light September 25, 2008. Presentation Outline. Macroeconomic Review Current market conditions Industry Overview Copart Overview Historical Performance Recent Events/Performance Portfolio Positioning Financial Projections. Macroeconomic review.
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Keenan Johnston Shivam Khanna David Light September 25, 2008
Presentation Outline Macroeconomic Review Current market conditions Industry Overview Copart Overview Historical Performance Recent Events/Performance Portfolio Positioning Financial Projections
Macroeconomic review High oil prices, credit market turmoil and weakness in financial sector has dragged markets down in the recent months The market is down 17% this year Copart’s revenues however, are not materially affected by economic slowdowns Source: Yahoo Finance, Company filings
Current market conditions Non-cyclical companies trading at a premium Represents insulation for economic uncertainty Volatility at a high (VIX below) Source: Yahoo Finance
Industry Overview Industry benefits with increasing demand for cars, More cars = More accidents = More auctions = More revenue Current economic conditions are not conducive to car purchasing Insurance companies are facing shrinking premium margins and in order to cuts costs are purchasing recycled parts from salvaged vehicles. More demand for Copart’s auctions Rising global oil prices have driven people to find alternatives to driving, Less car accidents = fewer opportunities for revenue
Key Market Players Source: Wikiinvest
Copart Overview Runs a proprietary online auction system for salvaged vehicles Damaged cars often termed by Insurance Companies as “Total Loss” Provides vehicle suppliers a full range of re-marketing services to process and sell these vehicles Earns Revenue from both buyers and sellers at the auction (not dissimilar to StubHub or Ebay) Source: Company filings
Copart Business Model - US Accident totally destroys car Insurance Co. deems car too costly to repair Copart auctions car to buyers all around the globe and earns income from both parties Dismantlers Exporters Rebuilders Used car dealers Source: Company filings
Copart Business Model - UK Accident totally destroys car Risk of devaluation Insurance Co. deems car too costly to repair Copart purchases car from Insurance company and remarkets it to potential buyers Dismantlers Exporters Rebuilders Used car dealers Source: Company filings
North American Facilities Copart Plans to add 10-15 North American Facilities in the next year Management sees potential for 150-200 facilities over time ~35% market share Source: R.W. Baird
U.K. Facilities In 2008, increased facilities from 10 to 15 Projected to acquire 5 more facilities in the next year 30% market share by the end of next year in U.K. Source: R.W. Baird
Historical financial performance Historically strong financial performance Driven by outstanding margins Source: Company filings
Shareholder Base Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent events September 18, 2008- Copart adds a new facility in Kentucky due to growing demand April 14, 2008- Copart acquires fourth facility in Missouri March 7, 2008- Revenues declined after company declared UK expansion had not gone according to plan March 6, 2008- Copart entered into a $200 million revolving line of credit with Bank of America. Source: Company filings, Reuters
Stock performance Source: Google Finance
Correlation Source: Yahoo Finance
Base case In-line with management projections Gross PP&E to remain at 95% of sales historically 90-104% Net goodwill at 38% of net PP&E historically 33-45% Tax rate: 38%
Base case With relatively optimistic assumptions our model yielded a value well below market
RCMP Historical Transactions Current Holdings
Recommendation Sell 200 shares with a $36 limit order Gross proceeds of approximately $8,200 Based on market price of $41.00 Will realize a gain of approximately $6,630