Contents of presentation

1. Climate Change and Adaptation- an Overview -Conference on Biodiversity and Climate Change: Links with Poverty and Sustainable DevelopmentHanoi, 22-23 May 2007Bernd-Markus Liss AGEG Consultants eG on behalf ofGTZ Climate Protection Programme (CaPP)

2. Climate change Facts Impacts Adaptation Messages Initiatives Strategies Challenges Contents of presentation

3. Climate change is a fact! Since 1850 temperature rise of + 0,74°C Sea level rise in 20th century 17 cm Increase of extreme weather events Climate change - facts Key messages of the 4th IPCC Report

4. Climate change - facts Global and regional rise of temperature so far

5. Climate change - facts Projected temperature rise until 2100 Source: 4th IPCC Report

6. Temperature rise: even with halting emissions now: + 0,6° C until 2100 depending on scenario: + 1.0 to + 6,3 °C until 2100 Sea level rise: 19-58 cm until 2100 (to be continued over many centuries) But: with permanent warming +3°C melting of Greenland ice + 7 m (time horizon: centuries/millennia) Extreme weather events: Drought, heat waves, heavy rains increasing Hurricanes and Cyclones increasing Climate change - facts Projections of the 4th IPCC report for the future

7. Climate change - impacts Risks caused by cyclones and sea level rise

8. Climate change - impacts Social and ecological impacts

9. Climate change - impacts Climate change is a risk for development • Numbers and damage caused by global natural disasters (storms, floods, heat waves) will increase dramatically • 20-30% decrease of water availability, e.g. in southern Africa and Mediterranean with 2° C temperature increase (with 4° C it will be 30 – 40%) • Up to 80 Million people additionally affected by Malaria • Agricultural yields will decrease by 5 – 35% • 15 – 40 % of species endangered by extinction • USD 40 Billion p.a. necessary to make international investments „climate proof“

10. Adaptation

11. Adaptation - messages 4th IPCC Report – Working Group II Some key messages: • Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions • A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. • Options for successful adaptation will diminish and costs increase with increasing climate change • Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change • A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change

12. Adaptation - messages 4th IPCC Report – Working Group II Some key messages: • Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses, e.g. current climate hazards, poverty and unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalisation, conflict, and incidence of disease • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, SD Strategies need to include promoting adaptive capacity and increased resilience • Climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development (MDGs) • Some adaptation is already occurring now, but on a limited basis

13. Adaptation - initiatives Action and initiatives towards adaptation Some initiatives: • UNFCCC: adaptation a cross-cutting issue • COP 10, 2004: Buenos Aires Programme of Work on Adaptation and Response Measures • COP 12, 2006: Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change • 2006-2007 Regional workshops on adaptation in Africa, SIDS, Latin America, Asia • Further decisions expected at COP 13, Bali, Indonesia, December 2007 • Tools for risk analysis and adaptation (OECD, FAO, G8, UNFCCC, World Bank) see e.g. http://unfccc.int/adaptation or www.linkingclimateadaptation.org • Linking climate change adaptation strategies with biodiversity (CBD) • Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change (IUCN, IIED etc.) • National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) of LDCs

14. Adaptation - strategies Adaptation process Assessment of Impacts Determining Vulnerability Identification of Measures Setting Priorities Governance implications Adaptation is not a purely technical process!

15. Adaptation strategies and measures include aspects of Technology (e.g., dyke construction) Changes in behaviour (e.g., food, recreational choices, individual transport) Management (e.g. farm practices, forest management) Policies (e.g., planning regulations, incentives for climate friendly technologies) IPCC: Most technologies and strategies are known, but there are environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioural barriers to implementation of adaptation For developing countries, availability of resources and building adaptive capacity are particularly important Adaptation - strategies Options for adaptation to climate change

16. Micro- und meso level: Introduction of drought resistant seed Strengthening of agrobiodiversity, maintenance of gene pools Sustainable forest management and protected area management Watershed management Adaptation of infrastructure to climate change (e.g. coastal protection) Adjustment of settlement and construction planning Disaster preparedness (early warning systems), … Macro-level: Protected area management according to geographic changes of biomes (creation of biodiversity corridors) Management of resettlement and migration processes Integration into planning processes of relevant line ministries, Introduction of special insurance products, … Integrated approaches to reduce vulnerability Adaptation - strategies Examples for adaptation to climate change There is no need to re-invent the wheel!

17. Adaptation - challenges Adaptation and development cooperation Studies of World Bank, OECD, GTZ, etc.: • many projects will be affected negatively by climate change • Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change necessary • tools • project cycle • strategies

18. Adaptation - challenges Adaptation and development cooperation - 3 major challenges: • Ensure sustainability of all DC-projects in times of climate change: „climate proofing“ • Adequate, just and cost efficient design of adaptation processes • Financing: Who pays how much? Stern Review, 2006: • The poorest countries are most vulnerable to climate change. • It is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, and that rich countries honour their pledges to increase support through ODA.

19. GTZ Climate Protection Programme www.gtz.de/climate