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AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO

AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO. Augusto José Pereira Filho Oswaldo Massambani Ricardo Hallak Hugo Karam Reinaldo Haas Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo.

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AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO

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  1. AN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF SÃO PAULO Augusto José Pereira Filho Oswaldo Massambani Ricardo Hallak Hugo Karam Reinaldo Haas Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas Universidade de São Paulo

  2. Motivation ACQUA 20/06/ 2003 City light NASA

  3. (mm h-1)

  4. Fonte: OESP Fonte: OESP (mm)

  5. DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMUATION2004 29/01 30/01 31/01 01/02 02/02 04/02 (mm)

  6. SEA BREEZE FLOOD EVENTS 2002 - 2004

  7. Heat Island in the MASP

  8. FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS • 75% FLASH FLOODS Td > 20 oC • 60% SEA BREEZE + T> 30 oC • 13 FLOODS A YEAR ( 2000 - 2004)

  9. NCEP

  10. NEW TOOLS to reduce flood impacts: • MESONET; • MICRONET; • DOW X-POL DUAL; • ARPS/T-TEB SYSTEM.

  11. FAPESP/GESP

  12. Antena Pedestal V ACOP Junta rotativa elevação H ACOP Motor Elevação Redutor Mecânico elevação Slip Ring Encoder Elevação Controle da Antena / Monitoração Redutor Mecânico azimute Interface elétrica Motor Azimute encoder Azimute Ang AZ RCP8 Interface elétrica Produtos Ang EL Servo Driver Azimute Cont AZ Servo Driver Elevação Compressor Cont EL Digitalizador TR ACP RX Digital Processador Sinais Nivelamento Eletrônico STALO Receptor GPS TR ACP DAFC Cont Chave Controle da chave TX Link de dados Celular Trigger Link de dados Conjunto Antena pedestal do radar Container Climatizado c/ equipamentos RVP8 Grupo gerador Sistema de nivelamento DOW X-POL DUAL

  13. Rainfall Analysis

  14. + SATELLITE RADAR ANALYZED

  15. Rainfall Forecasting - ARPS

  16. ARPS Domain 12-km (123x123x35) 24 hr ~ 30 min. 2-km (147x123x35) 24 hr ~3 hr

  17. 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 00 Init 00 48 Init 00 48 Init 48 00 Init Operational Routine (hour)

  18. CLUSTER Server (Dual Xeon ) 3.4 Ghz, 01 GB DDR ECC; 16 Nodes P4 3.6 GHz, 512MB DDR 400MHz ECC, 512K cache; Clic Mandrake 10.1 with kernel 2.6.12; Libraries MPICH, PVM ATLAS, LAPACK, ScaLAPACK; 105 Gflops with Linpack; 38 Gflops with ARPS (estimated)

  19. Example

  20. Wind and Rainfall Fields (2-km grid) (123 x 123 x 57)

  21. Urban Boundary Layer Modeling of the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP)

  22. Totally urbanized in the MASP CBERS-2 image (resolution = 20 m )

  23. Thermodynamics variables • Calibration of the Urban Surface Model. • Improve the Numerical Forecast. • Model and Dataset Interface Set up.

  24. qe (K) IAG-USP

  25. Goal of Tropical TEB (T-TEB) • To develop a Tropical Urban Surface Model calibrated for the MASP, based on Masson (2000); • Improve the short-term forecast of rainfall.

  26. Short Wave Radiation Forcing

  27. Precipitation: 04-05 Feb 2004 IAG-USP

  28. Water accumulation at urban surfaces (simul.)

  29. Urban Surfaces Heat Fluxes

  30. Hydrological Modeling

  31. ANN

  32. THE END

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