Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs

1. Anticipating the future of local employment and skills needs Ian Wheeler Head of Research and Labour Market Intelligence

2. “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery The role of skills and labour market intelligence

3. Sector wide intelligence • As a Sector Skills Council we are responsible for developing skills and labour market intelligence for the UK’s health sector • Outputs on our website • Sector Skills Assessments, UK and for each nation • Expert/Working papers • Themed research • Future oriented work • Online LMI tool

4. Scenario planning – why do it, what is it? Why use this approach? • When the rules are changing quickly, past performance is not always an indicator of future (forecasts) • Great for bringing groups of people together and create a neutral space for discussion • Stories are more engaging and novel to describe strategic issues What comes out? • Stories that describe how ‘the world’ might look in the future (not predictions) • Usually three perhaps four ‘versions’ of the future • Based on an analysis of drivers of change that are derived from the group • Be engaging, compelling and credible • Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated

5. Typical scenario planning process Stage 1: defining the scope of the scenarios (focal question) and setting up the project Stage 2: interviews with experts and witnesses Stage 3: workshops with interested parties to • decide drivers of change • construction of the framework • selection and development of scenarios and their narratives Stage 4: communication and application of the scenarios Apply Skills for Health scenarios? http://www.skillsforhealth.org.uk/planning-your-workforce-strategy/understand-your-future-labour-needs/future%11oriented-research

6. Benefits of Scenario development and utilisation • Early warnings of impending change • to spot early opportunities • Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes • Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider • challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them • look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks

7. Skills for Health’s complete perspectives approach

8. Benefits and outputs • Link between demand for health care, performance of service and the skills and people needed make improvements • A collective approach with different institutions in a area - who might deliver services • Provides a direction of travel - priorities for skills development and skills utilisation • A very flexible approach

9. Example of outputs profile of ‘possible future concerns’ regionally

10. Example of outputs profile of health types very locally

11. Testimonies On Scenario planning and development “I attended one of Skills for Health’s scenario building workshops and I have to say it was one of the best sessions of this type I have attended. I have really learned a lot about the approach and how it can help me think creatively and comfortably about the future.” Linda Shrewsbury, Head of Workforce, NHS Warwickshire On complete perspectives approach “The reports offer us a series of unique insights, including pinpointing disparities between local health service supply and population demand. By using this information to optimise our services for local demand we will increase overall productivity and service quality.” Adrian Whittle, Head of HR and Organisational Development NHS Cambridgeshire and NHS Peterborough

12. Research and Intelligence Services • Service one – Intelligence on the current and future demand for services in your local area • Service two – Scenario planning • Service three – expert research on your skills and workforce issues

13. If you want to know more • Contact Tess Green

14. www.skillsforhealth.org.uk Email addresses of regional directors