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Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 cartercenter jimmycarterlibrary

Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 www.cartercenter.org www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov. Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran. The Agenda. Human rights, restrictions on arms sales Criticizes HK’s secret diplomacy

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Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 cartercenter jimmycarterlibrary

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  1. Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980www.cartercenter.orgwww.jimmycarterlibrary.gov Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran

  2. The Agenda • Human rights, restrictions on arms sales • Criticizes HK’s secret diplomacy • As a world power, US has moral responsibility to adjust foreign policy to basic principles of human rights • “Human rights are the soul of our foreign policy” • open support to Russian dissidents

  3. …agenda • Energy program within the first 90 days • James Schlesinger-an economist devoted to conservation • Department of Energy is created • “The Moral Equivalent of War” • Program based on less consumption and conservation • Consensus cannot be built – “Meow”

  4. Relations with Iran • RN and HK with time considered Iran “The Big Pillar” • Blank check: no restrictions on arms sales • Shah did not join embargo • Border with USSR • **Despite DoD opinion • Strong conventional army more appropriate than sophisticated weapons

  5. Relations with Iran • **Despite Saudi Arabia ill feeling • Yamani’s prophecy: “If the shah departs from the stage, we could also have a violent, anti-American regine in Teheran”

  6. Does all this change with Carter? • As a matter of fact, there is no change • Despite the shah’s being “way down the list of tyrants” and Savak’s brutality • The hard truth is that there is no strategic alternative • Besides, shah stops battle for higher prices • This is in line with US “Price Freeze Offensive” • Cyrus Vance’s reassuring visit to Teheran, May 1977

  7. The shah in Washington-Nov 77 • Dissidents and tear gas • US media coverage leads Iran to believe US support to shah has ended • Conversations with Carter-shah’s formal commitment to join Arabia in moderating prices • Dec 77: Carter’s visit to Teheran, also to show that US support continues • The toast: “an island of stability”….

  8. Origins of revolution • Long-standing acrimony between the shah’s regime and the Shiite clergy • Very bad use of petrodollars • Economic chaos, political and social tensions • Rural population moving to towns; infrastructures totally unfit • Beneficiary of situation: Ayatollah Khomeini-his hatred of shah equal to hatred of US

  9. ….revolution • Khomeini son’s murder (end ‘77) and newspaper insulting article (Jan ‘78) make situation worse • Disorders in Qom-spiritual home • Slain and 40-day mourning, more riots and slain, 40 more mourning days • Riots and killings spread in the country • Shah realizes seriousness of situation, but is sure to get the upper hand; accelerates liberalization

  10. ….revolution • US also believes shah will prevail • Intelligence limitations-Cia’s caution • Estimate Sept. 78: shah expected to remain in power for next ten years • Nobody knew he was ill • Sept 78: demonstrations in Teheran mark the turning point • Liberalization goes on, but Govt starts falling apart

  11. The situation grows worse • Strikes in oil fields-production falls • From 4,5mb/d to less than 1mb/d • Stability depends on oil revenues • NIOC in great difficulty • Shah installs military Govt • US badly informed; distracted by Camp David, SALT, China, convinced of Soviet-orchestrated plot; send mixed signals

  12. Departure • Nov 78: Amb. Sullivan’s report • “Thinking the unthinkable” • Carter asks why nobody informed him • First high level meeting in Washington • Dec 78: demonstrations across country; forceful incitement from Khomeini • Plans for evacuation from oil fields • Oil exports cease; western employees leave • They assume to be back soon, just as in 1953

  13. The Last Act • Jan 79: shah also leaves as for a period of rest • First stop: Egypt • It’s the end of the Pahlavi dynasty • Jubilation Iran-Feb 1, Khomeini arrives with revolutionary council that forms new Govt. • Mehdi Bazargan: his role with Mossadegh • US Emb: “Army surrenders; Khomeini wins; destroying all classified” • The world is shaken: is it the 2nd oil crisis?

  14. Camp DavidAccords Sept. 1978

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