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PART III: How BET_EF works

PART III: How BET_EF works. BET_EF: main form. Hazard procedure Event tree selection Output selection Geometry visualization Options. BET_EF: Hazard Procedure. Hazard procedure Event tree selection Output selection Geometry visualization Options. BET_EF: Event Tree selection.

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PART III: How BET_EF works

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  1. PART III: How BET_EF works

  2. BET_EF: main form • Hazard procedure • Event tree selection • Output selection • Geometry visualization • Options

  3. BET_EF: Hazard Procedure • Hazard procedure • Event tree selection • Output selection • Geometry visualization • Options

  4. BET_EF: Event Tree selection • Hazard procedure • Event tree selection • Output selection • Geometry visualization • Options PATH SELECTION NODE SELECTION

  5. BET_EF: Event Tree selection • Hazard procedure • Event tree selection • Output selection • Geometry visualization • Options Probability that all the events in the selected path occur contemporaneously Probability that the events at the selected node occur, given previous nodes

  6. BET_EF: Absolute probability Probability Density Function Cumulative Distribution Distribution’s parameters

  7. BET_EF: Conditional probability Distribution’s parameters Averages (sum to 1)

  8. BET_EF: Vent map When you move the mouse on the map… it is shown: - Location - Coordinates - Average Probability It can be both CONDITIONAL or ABSOLUTE probability The map can be saved in bmp or loaded in GoogleEarth

  9. BET_EF: Vent map… saved

  10. BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 2D

  11. BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 3D

  12. BET_EF: Monitoring When Monitoring is considered (see Hazard Procedure), you will be asked to input or load monitoring measurements…

  13. BET_EF: Monitoring Measurements may be… - directly input - loaded from an ascii file (all nodes together) Thresholds interval may be visualized… Each measure may be localized…

  14. BET_EF: Monitoring

  15. BET_EF: Manual The BET_MANUAL describes: - each function of the software - step by step the installation procedure A link to the .html BET_MANUAL can be found: 1) start menu 2) button HELP in all the forms of BET_EF and BET_UPGRADE 3) on internet: http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet

  16. More on BET: • CoV5: • Oral 12-O-11, Nov. 22 (Thu) Hall A, 1450-1510 • Integrating Eruption Forecasting and Cost/benefit Analysis for decision making During an Emergency: the Case of BET_EF Applied to Vesuvius in the MESIMEX Experiment • poster 21b-P-18, Nov. 22 (Thu.), 1640-1800 • The Bayesian Event Tree for short- and long-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei, Italy, • Other… • - http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet • - Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and sort-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y

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