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Analysis of Record

Analysis of Record. Suggestions and Concerns from the Florida Science & Operations Officers. Andy Devanas Jeff Medlin Charlie Paxton Pablo Santos Dave Sharp Irv Watson Pat Welsh. Presented by Dave Sharp NWS Melbourne, FL. High-Resolution Analysis (Td). AoR Summit – 29 June 2004.

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Analysis of Record

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  1. Analysis of Record Suggestions and Concerns from the Florida Science & Operations Officers Andy Devanas Jeff Medlin Charlie Paxton Pablo Santos Dave Sharp Irv Watson Pat Welsh Presented by Dave Sharp NWS Melbourne, FL High-Resolution Analysis (Td) AoR Summit – 29 June 2004

  2. An Example of Current Capabilities: High-resolution analyses (4 km) over Florida created within the WFO and delivered to the AWIPS & GFE in near real-time. This serves as the context for our presentation. Dew Point Temperature - Experimental

  3. Community Discussions • Current community discussions regarding the creation of Analyses of Record (AoR) are both exciting and worrisome for Florida (FL) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). • As we understand it, the purpose for pursuing the AoR stems from the agency’s need to verify the accuracy of their gridded forecasts. These forecasts are produced by WFOs for respective contributions to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). So, WFOs have a direct vested interest.

  4. Exciting & Worrisome • Exciting in that… • It represents a more complete commitment toward operational forecasts grids becoming truly official. • It recognizes that current point-verification schemes are inadequate for determining forecast skill. • And, from a business perspective, the agency can only manage that which is properly measured. So far, current measurements of gridded forecasts have largely focused on timeliness and consistency (and not accuracy).

  5. Exciting & Worrisome • Worrisome in that… • A hasty implementation of a deficient AoR scheme could yield lasting negative consequences, with agency leaders basing critical decisions on unrepresentative measurement information. • It should be understood, the AoR will evolve to become authoritative in its character, ultimately becoming the official/historical record. Therefore, peripheral and subsequent uses will be many. The AoR must have integrity (with minimal scientific concession); responsibility is involved. • Several of the current AoR proposals have neglected the potential role of the WFO and their importance to the process.

  6. AoR Proposals • Community must first declare an appropriate way of transforming the list of select verifications points into select verification grids. • Simply creating verification grids based on extrapolations of downscaled extrapolations will not result in an AoR with integrity. • Solutions must have an appreciation of surface observational data (but should not give all observations equal weight or influence).

  7. High-Resolution Analyses • When discussing the AoR, it is imperative to separate issues between high-resolution analyses utilized as a real-time diagnostic vs. high-resolution analyses utilized for verification. • Independent from the actual method or approach, the primary differences are in: • Temporal resolution • Operational Urgency • The primary similarity is that each are highly desired by WFO forecasters; there is a great opportunity here.

  8. FL Modeling Initiatives Southern Region • Also, it legitimizes the aggressive data assimilation and modeling efforts taking place in the Southern Region (SR), especially within several Florida WFOs. • These efforts have shown that expanding and maturing local mesonets is an essential component. More so, possessing local knowledge of platform metadata, data quality, calibration, biases, and history has been invaluable (along with having a working rapport with network operators); WFO strong points.

  9. FL Modeling Initiatives Southern Region • In practice… mesoanalysts are assuming the growing operational duty of monitoring the quality of analyses, with an increasing need to have more control over data inputs at the forecaster level. surface

  10. FL Modeling Initiatives Southern Region • WFO Jacksonville - running WRF (Eulerian) initialized with LAPS (5 km). • WFO Melbourne - running ARPS initialized with ADAS (4 km). • Both data assimilation packages are ingesting a variety of observational data, including volumetric data (radar, satellite, etc.). • WFO Miami – running WsEta (non-hydrostatic) initialized with an enhanced AWIPS/LAPS.

  11. Comprehensive Value • High-resolution (spatial & temporal) diagnostics have been documented as being useful for: • evaluating the current state of the local atmosphere for short-term forecasting. • providing near-storm environment information for warning-decision making. • populating the 00 hr forecast within the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE). • creating “persistence grids” for use within GFE. • Creating local libraries of situational “climatology grids” for use within GFE.

  12. Comprehensive Value Continued • making “current condition” graphics and products similar to forecast graphics and products. • real-time assessment of the current Day-1 forecast. • develop conceptual models of local phenomena. • evaluate model performance and identify biases. • initialize a local forecast model focused on 0-24 hours. Current Temperature

  13. Of Particular Value Continued • Importantly, the FL SOOs surmise that such high-resolution analysis grids, generated at the WFO level, could be judiciously used for verification. • At each WFO, a fully optimized data assimilation and analysis package (LAPS, ADAS, other) could be configured outside of AWIPS.

  14. For Example…

  15. FL SOO Proposal • The FL SOOs propose a collaborative approach between WFOs and EMC, leveraging strengths and expertise. • WFOs serving as local experts in mesoscale weather and observational data. • EMC serving as agency experts in data assimilation and modeling techniques. • Individual WFOs would create analysis grids (5 km) for the variety of local uses, but also contribute them (hourly) in the same way as the forecast grids; this would be beneficial for everyone (including NDFD users).

  16. FL SOO Proposal • Analyses would be monitored and controlled by WFO forecasters. • Configuration would be outside of AWIPS, but routinely delivered to AWIPS (in netcdf format) and available for GFE to create analysis grids. • The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC20) would serve as the background field. • EMC would receive these grids as the composite first-guess for the AoR.

  17. Important Advocacies • WFOs would need EMC’s support. • Develop anisotropy techniques for local optimization (terrain, land use, coasts). • Importance of expansion of the national sensor backbone (to include a “national mesonet”). • Improvements to LDAD. • National test beds. • FL as one of those test beds.

  18. Benefits • This approach would foster WFO forecaster buy-in. • This approach would also improve the accuracy of high-resolution forecasts on many important levels, not just to serve as a “yard stick”. Thank You

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