NFFO and SRO Features: - Scope limited to grid-connected electricity generation

1. NFFO and SRO • Features: - • Scope limited to grid-connected electricity generation • Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts offered for purchase of electricity • Support only given to the renewable technologies listed in the Order • Scale (in terms of MW capacity) for each technology restricted to figure quoted in the Order • Competitive bidding within each technology band: lowest bids in terms of pence/kWh are offered contracts

2. NFFO and SRO Analysis for England and Wales (upper graph) and Scotland (lower) shows that completion rates for projects were initially very high. But in later years, difficulties arose in the planning process, particularly for wind farms and waste incineration plant. Completion rates then fell well below 50% in both regions.

3. Present UK arrangements: the Renewables Obligation • Licensed electricity suppliers must obtain a specified percentage of their output from renewable sources (steadily rising: will be 10% by 2010) • Additional costs incurred may be passed on to customers: there will be no subsidies • Possible arrangements for trading of “Green Credits”, or purchasing exemption from the Obligation • Existing NFFO and SRO contracts to be maintained. The future for “immature” technologies is threatened: electricity producers will inevitably go for the cheapest renewable sources, at present on-shore wind energy, land-fill gas or waste incineration.

4. Recent energy demands and future projections from the UK Cabinet Office, 2002 Note the steady increase in total energy demand, and the very rapid rise in the transport sector

5. Sources of supply for total UK primary energy demand, from the UK Cabinet Office, 2002 Note the continuing decline of coal and the rapid expansion of gas usage. Is this wise? – we are now a net importer of gas. A revival of nuclear power is NOT anticipated!

6. Stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide Extracts from an article by Aitken, Billman and Bull in Renewable Energy World, volume 7 number 6, 2004

7. Study covers total primary energy, not just electricity • Best current estimates on: - • population growth • GDP per person • primary energy intensity • to predict growth in energy demand to 2100

8. Gaps between total energy demand and carbon fuel consumption under a range of scenarios

9. Possible omission – no consideration given to carbon sequestration processes from fossil fuels Conclusion – no realistic chance of CO2 stabilisation at current levels of 350 ppm: need zero carbon emissions from about 2045! Scenario – stabilise CO2 at 550 ppm But how damaging is that likely to be?

10. Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm: required growth of zero-carbon energy sources to 2030

11. Recent growth rates in wind energy markets Recent growth rates in the photovoltaic energy market

12. A possible future scenario of energy production which would stabilise atmospheric CO2 levels at 550 ppm by the year 2100

13. Roughly speaking, we need an extra 10% from • renewables each decade up to 2050, with • smaller increases thereafter; 80% in total by • the year 2100 • Projections from the study are: - • a rapid growth in biomass • steady expansion of wind, solar and geothermal sources • no significant expansion of nuclear power or hydro • no significant contribution from marine energy