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Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate

ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER) Applied Climate Change Conference May 23-24 , 2013. Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate. Don C. MacIver mayor.maciver@hotmail.com Marianne Karsh mbkarsh@gmail.com. POINT 1: The Climate is already Changing.

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Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate

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  1. ASSOCIATION FOR CANADIAN EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES (ACER)Applied Climate Change ConferenceMay 23-24, 2013 Community Sustainability under a Changing Climate Don C. MacIver mayor.maciver@hotmail.com Marianne Karsh mbkarsh@gmail.com

  2. POINT 1: The Climate is already Changing How has the Climate Been Changing in the Area? Since late 1800s Annual Temps: Warmed Mean Temps ~ 2.7 C Min Temps most ~4.1C Annual Precip: Slight Increase?

  3. POINT 2: The Climate will be Changing Global Climate Model Projections for Region – 2050s Annual Mean Temps Warming 2.6 – 4.0 C Annual Mean Precip Increasing 6-15% Scenario data from AR4 CGCM3 and HadCM3 Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate

  4. C2 = Natural X Human-Induced Climate The Changing climate is: Non-linear at local and regional scales A Multiplier Climate, not an additive climate Implications Not gradual impacts but abrupt step changes Need to redefine critical sensitivity thresholds

  5. POINT 3: Threats to Biodiversity in Canada Land-Use Change Climate Change Insects/Disease/Fire Page 5

  6. Climate and Forest Biodiversity Using Smithsonian Global Biodiversity Observation Network “Canada can ill-afford the loss of one species”

  7. Biodiversity:Changes in Family Forest Diversity in Ontario under 2XCO2 Climate Warming 2 X CO2 Current Family Forest Diversity Potential in Ontario Current

  8. Climate Change is a global-local issue Community Sustainability Competitiveness Biodiversity Safety/Health • Adaptation to: • Changing landscapes • Changing species/seeds • Changing ecosystems • Adaptation to: • Changing markets • Changing regulations • Changing technologies • Adaptation to: • Changing climate • Changing hazards • Changing behaviour

  9. POINT 4: Building Resilience - Reduce the Rate of Loss of Forest Biodiversity • Reduce fragmentation • Protect space, functional groups, climate refugia, • and multiple microhabitats in replicated areas • Design buffer zones and flexibility of land uses • Ensure connectivity of habitats along gradients • Seed sources and climatic information/scenarios for new community planning designs. • Support Community Monitoring Programs – eg. urban forests, schoolyards and backyards

  10. POINT 5: Management - Building the Adaptive Capacity Current Management Practices: Slow to respond to change Reactive adaptation Assumes environment is robust – but losses will continue Future Adaptive Management Actions: Recognize urgency to adapt now – eg. new planting programs – native and new species Support community monitoring programs Accelerate community planning and solutions Engage communities, partnerships and education

  11. POINT 6: Planned Adaptation -Increasing Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change by 2020 • Build corridors with native and new species • Re-introduce species– select seeds x climate • Control or eradicate invasive species • Engage in community planting designs and planting programs • Manage for land-use changes and disturbances to biodiversity • Account for projected impacts in climate change • when designing new community management plans and protected areas

  12. United Nations Publications: Climate Change and Biodiversity

  13. Publications • Dallmeier, F., A. Fenech, D.C MacIver and R. Szaro (eds.). 2010. Climate Change, Biodiversity & Sustainability in the Americas. Smithsonian Institution Scholarly Press, Washington, D.C. 183 pp. • Fenech, A., D.C. MacIver and F. Dallmeier (eds.). 2009. Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Americas. Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, On. 346 pp. • MacIver, D.C., M.B. Karsh and N. Comer. 2009. Climate change and Biodiversity: Implications for Monitoring, Science and Adaptive Planning. Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Toronto, On. 184 pp. • MacIver D, 2013 (Accepted For Publication), Climate Sense For Municipalities, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Karsh M, 2010, Planned Adaptation - How Municipalities Can Save Energy And Increase Habitat Biodiversity Under Climate Change By 2020 And Beyond, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Fernandez S, 2010, Canadian Drought Alert And Monitoring Program - The Do-It-Yourself Drought Alert And Water Conservation Tool, Municipal World Publication • MacIver D, Butt S, Auld H, Klaassen J, 2009, Severe Weather is the #1 Risk To Ontario Municipalities,Municipal World Publication Page 14

  14. Canada is the victim of global greenhouse gas emissions from foreign countries --- adaptation actions are already overdue

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